the argument being made for neck right now is "yeah, but did you see his first half??". that's it.
If you go back to the beginning, my point was that he put up good numbers for four months. Three of those months were not particularly fortunate as far as BABIP goes, though he was very fortunate in one of those four months.
In his last two months, his BABIP and power numbers dropped below career norms, but his K rate and BB rate stayed right at his first half pace. There was no sign that the first half return to his career norms in those areas were fluky. IMO, the people who focus on those two months are simply doing their best to ignore than 2018 ever happened. It makes no sense to pretend that the smallest portion of his sample is representative of his season.
I totally understand that folks who want to see the previous three years as a steady decline. I'd just ask for some explanation of how a player in steady decline suddenly reverses that decline. PEDs?
I also think there is an explanation beyond luck for his decline in power in the second half. He's a mid 30s players who for the second season in a row had a really rough second half split. that fit with general studies on aging players that finds that they generally do have weaker second halves than first halves.
I believe the realistic expectation for his first half next year is somewhere between the 99 wRC+ he put up in 2017 and the 133 wRC+ he put up in 2018. If he maintains his K and BB rate in 2019, it should be significantly higher than 99 wRC+. But that's not a given, he is 35 years old. He could show up in spring training and be toast. It happens.
None of this has been to make any claim that Markakis will be an All Star again next season. He might be, but that's besides the point. It's simply that bringing him back for 6m isn't the worst thing that could happen in all the world.
The Braves have Camargo who probably needs to get a game or two a week in the OF to optimize his plate appearances. While I do see him as a utility man, it is entirely possible that he is simply a good young player that is getting better and will continue to get better. He might well be a better OF option than anyone if he can field the position.
There is still the possibility of a bounce back for Duvall. And nothing prevents the Braves from making a trade to upgrade the team in the summer when teams have to face reality about their chances. That might well be the best opportunity of landing a well rounded answer to the position. Something better than paying full price for Joey Gallo though people seem content to try and believe he will be had for less than his surplus value.
I will likely be disappointed by this offseason because I favored a modified going for it strategy. Anthopolous seems intent on hoarding assets and protecting the future. I find that to be insufficiently aggressive, but I will acknowledge that it might keep the Braves in the conversation for longer. I think it also lets them continue to look at their own prospects and determine what exactly they have. It's conservative, but it might prove to be wiser than I might be.