2018 Offseason And Targets

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Southcack77 said:
They may have gotten 3 wins out of moving Hoskins out of LF alone.

With Harper, I'd guess they would have added nearly 10 wins this offseason.

I had some calculation on that somewhere in this thread, but not gonna find it or re-do it.

They'd feel like the better roster, but the Braves have a more pitching depth.
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10 wins is a bit of a stretch, all their starters after May made every start last year. Thats a bit unsustainable thing to do, usually you need at least 8-9 guys to use for a year, normally more.

Hoskins while moving to 1B should help, he's still not a great defensive player. Even with Harper, there's still plenty of questions around their roster.
 
nsacpi said:
I don't think the Braves have even made an offer. Marlins using Mish to fabricate this.
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While I think they have made an offer, it would be hilarious if a reporter asked AA if they feel his offer to the Marlins was strong? To which AA would reply, ‘we haven’t made one.’ Hahaha would make Jeter look like an utter lying fool.
 
Southcack77 said:
Maybe... Hoskins has a small sample at 1B, but comes out largely average there, all things considered. You give him back the 1.8 wins that he lost by playing LF, and he's at 4.7 wins, which isn't so far off from 6 for a 25 year old.


It's probably more like 2.5 wins in left than 3 wins.
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You also have to calculate what a competent LF will add. The mariners taking Santana was the biggest win of the offseason. That was a pure gift and I am sure Dipoto received some sort of happy ending because of it.
 
Southcack77 said:
Maybe... Hoskins has a small sample at 1B, but comes out largely average there, all things considered. You give him back the 1.8 wins that he lost by playing LF, and he's at 4.7 wins, which isn't so far off from 6 for a 25 year old.


It's probably more like 2.5 wins in left than 3 wins.
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fyi, there were zero 6-win 1B last year.
i don't see that from him at all. i think he'll probably be right around 4 wins. Steamer projects 3.6.
it will be evry difficult, IMO, for him to get to 5.5 or 6.
 
tululush said:
While I think they have made an offer, it would be hilarious if a reporter asked AA if they feel his offer to the Marlins was strong? To which AA would reply, ‘we haven’t made one.’ Hahaha would make Jeter look like an utter lying fool.
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In more diplomatic terms, AA has indicated that these reports are wrong.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
TODAY: Whatever progress was made has clearly not yet resulted in a deal. It’s not just that the Marlins want to wait to see if other clubs will increase their offers. Rather, per Heyman (via Twitter), the Fish and the Reds are “still apart on prospects,” with other clubs also still engaged with the Cincinnati organization.
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However annoying this is for fans, I imagine it must be 10x as annoying for GMs trying to deal with the Marlins.

The Marlins are to MLB what the Twits are to this board.
 
nsacpi said:
I don't think the Braves have even made an offer. Marlins using Mish to fabricate this.
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AA maybe hasnt made a final offer, but Miami knows what we can offer them in a deal, so they're trying to get someone to top it.
 
Hoskins is likely a 4+ WAR 1B. I guess we will see this year but they have improved by moving him to 1B and Cutch in left.

Overall they got 5.5 fWAR out of Hoskins, Santana, and the crap they had at short.

Steamer has Hoskins, Cutch, and Segura projected at 8.9 fWAR and I think that system is a little light on Hoskins and Segura.

Adding Harper would be another +4 wins for them as well.

Have they done anything else? That alone is likely ~8 wins added just with my quick math.
 
thewupk said:
Hoskins is likely a 4+ WAR 1B. I guess we will see this year but they have improved by moving him to 1B and Cutch in left.

Overall they got 5.5 fWAR out of Hoskins, Santana, and the crap they had at short.

Steamer has Hoskins, Cutch, and Segura projected at 8.9 fWAR and I think that system is a little light on Hoskins and Segura.

Adding Harper would be another +4 wins for them as well.

Have they done anything else? That alone is likely ~8 wins added just with my quick math.
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Robertson is the only other one off the top of my head. That's maybe another .5-1 win.
 
thewupk said:
Hoskins is likely a 4+ WAR 1B. I guess we will see this year but they have improved by moving him to 1B and Cutch in left.
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certainly it's an improvement getting him out of LF. their defense still isn't strong.
i don't think it's "likely" he's a 4+ WAR, tho it is possible. "likely" to me indicates >50% shot he gets there.
 
Super said:
certainly it's an improvement getting him out of LF. their defense still isn't strong.
i don't think it's "likely" he's a 4+ WAR, tho it is possible. "likely" to me indicates >50% shot he gets there.
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It's a small sample of 300 innings but he's graded out as a positive at 1st via UZR over the last two seasons. If that translates he's right at 4 WAR given he hits like last season.
 
Southcack77 said:
Maybe... Hoskins has a small sample at 1B, but comes out largely average there, all things considered. You give him back the 1.8 wins that he lost by playing LF, and he's at 4.7 wins, which isn't so far off from 6 for a 25 year old.


It's probably more like 2.5 wins in left than 3 wins.
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That's not how it works.

Hoskins as a 1b with roughly average defense having the offensive year he had last year is more like a 3-4 WAR 1b. For instance, Jesus Aguilar had a slightly better offensive season and was average defensively. He was worth 3.1 WAR in 149 games.
 
There have been 28 player-seasons over the last 5 seasons where a guy was labeled as a 1B and accumulated 4+ wins. The defensive ding for being a 1B is so large it requires a wRC+ in the neighborhood of 140 to get that many WAR.

Assuming Hoskins isn't a complete butcher at 1B, I would say there's a good chance he reaches 4 WAR. Projections have him fall just short (3.6), and I wouldn't call it "likely" he is 4+...but I loath arguing semantics (it's what folks do when they have no valid data to back up their assertion) when numbers accurately describe something.
 
thewupk said:
It's a small sample of 300 innings but he's graded out as a positive at 1st via UZR over the last two seasons. If that translates he's right at 4 WAR given he hits like last season.
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he was a negative in 2017 on FG, which is all i was going by.
 
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