2018 Offseason And Targets

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CrazyTrain said:
Everything AA has done so far this offseason points to this being another developmental year. JD is just an expensive draft pick. Nick is a band aid. He hasn't addressed the rotation. Catcher was a lateral move at best.

I guess he's hoping the rotation can make major strides this year and he can better evaluate the needs next offseason? Bad part will be what value is lost from our starters like Newk, Fried, etc...
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Exactly. But the worst part is the value in terms of career timing and contractual control of Freddie Freeman. If 2020 is the real year, and it certainly looked that way back in 2015 and looks that way now, then Freddie will be 30 and subject to FA after 2021. He will be past his prime, likely relatively expensive in terms of his percentage of the payroll and 1 season of control beyond the real beginning of the window.

That's what I've been saying all this time.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
The point is: Teams entering their window of opportunity need to fill holes (RF, C......CL.........SP) either through signing a FA, even if it costs a pick, or through trade. AA has fixed 3B. And he's sat on his hands the rest of the offseason in an apparent state of no money and unwillingness to trade from the prospect stockpile. That indicates that AA doesn't see 2019 as a necessity type year but more of a continued developmental year. He's willing to add incremental pieces (either a significant player on a short contract like Donaldson or retreads who bring professionalism as their main stock in trade not ability anymore, like McCann and Markakis. OK, that's fine if in your mind the Braves aren't winning anything in 2019, unless by lucky happenstance, and you're ok with that because it's a developmental year. That's mainly ok because they didn't give up anything for Donaldson, McCann and Markakis but short term money - no talent, no long term commitment. At least there's a plan in that line of thinking. I don't like it but can understand and accept it, while saying it's where I thought we would be in 2019 way back in 2015/16 when I was calling for the trade of Freeman.

Where you lose me is when you get late in the FA/trade season and have held off making ANY moves (including upgrading the OF with Pollock or signing Grandal for C) that move the competitive needle for 2019 IF IT COSTS talent, even draft position talent, and then turn around and add a soft tossing, aging LH starting pitcher to add to a crowded rotation with SP prospects coming out of your ears and/or add a closer who's shown signs of decline at the cost of talent just because they seem more affordable in terms of dollars and years. It's not consistent with the plan which means you have no plan.

Braves fans as so hungry for something good to happen that if AA signs Keuchel and/or Kimbrel tomorrow they'll be running around talking about what kind of genius he is while I say he would be an idiot who's being run by the show not running the show.
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Kinda have to call this take spot on.

If "The Plan" was to add veterans on 1 year deals to allow the young core to have 1 more developmental year (a completely defensible plan even if not my preferred course of action), suddenly pivoting to add Keuchel on a 3+ year deal makes zero sense. Adding Kimbrel on a deal of similar length also makes zero sense. Adding any declining veteran on a long-ish deal, especially a declining pitcher, makes zero sense.

Under "The Plan", the correct move is Gio for 1 year, Keuchel for 1-2 years, or Kimbrel for 1-2 years.
 
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bravesfanMatt said:
So you agree with neck being a starting RF for a WS team? Coupled with BMac as half your starting catcher.
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If Mac’s knee is healthy....he will be the best $2mil we have spent. He was good enough for the Astros btw. Nick is on a cheap one year deal and might be a bench bat by the second half of the season.

The biggest free agents are still out there and the biggest trade target. We can still make other moves.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
It's worse than punting. It's indecisive. It's a half in, half out, hope to get lucky strategy.

If you're going to rebuild then do that.

If you're going to contend then do that.

If you get to the point that you should contend, but don't have the ability or desire to address weaknesses to really contend, then your plan was flawed and subject to failure depending on how you navigate.
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This is the view that many Braves fans seem to have about this offseason and largely I think it is insane.

The Braves have improved their team and put themselves in position to contend for the division and the pennant. Yes, they're not the prohibitive favorites to win the NL, but the offseason is also not over. And it's not who has the prettiest roster on opening day anyway.
 
TheBravos said:
If Mac’s knee is healthy....he will be the best $2mil we have spent. He was good enough for the Astros btw. Nick is on a cheap one year deal and might be a bench bat by the second half of the season.

The biggest free agents are still out there and the biggest trade target. We can still make other moves.
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Never said Mac wasn’t good value at 2 million. Just not sure two aging/declining vets in your starting lineup is “going for it”
 
Isn't the biggest question remaining with Keuchel "who are you left bidding against?"

The Miley signing likely removes Houston as a bidder. If San Diego and the Mutts are sniffing around on Gio, they're likely out. The Gnats are likely out.

He makes sense here, in Philadelphia, and in Cincinnati (if they're able to add that much more salary). Hard to find anyone that's likely to give him the five years he reportedly wants, and maybe even hard to find anyone willing to go four.
 
Southcack77 said:
This is the view that many Braves fans seem to have about this offseason and largely I think it is insane.

The Braves have improved their team and put themselves in position to contend for the division and the pennant. Yes, they're not the prohibitive favorites to win the NL, but the offseason is also not over. And it's not who has the prettiest roster on opening day anyway.
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It isnt who has the prettiest roster on opening day. But if your offseason plan was to wait until trade deadline to upgrade areas you already knew were weak then I would say your plan was flawed.

And I am not saying our team is domed. We have young guys who could really step up and produce. Especially in the pitching department. I would have just liked to see a more moderate upgrade in the corner. Heck I might even be less disappointed if I knew they were going to play Neck in LF were his Declining arm and legs won’t be as big as a burden. But we all know that won’t happen.
 
Carp said:
I like that overall, but I doubt players would go for that %25 buyout.
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They will have to give something if they want any kind of reform to the system. Giving owners protection from being Uptoned would go a long way towards getting free agents signed more quickly and for higher AAV/ longer terms.

If the players need more to accept that, I wouldn't have a problem with cutting the year of control from the league minimum years instead of arbitration.

The league as a whole needs to find a way to more accurately match payroll with production.
 
Trying to discuss this without it getting too political...bear with me please. Let's try not to discuss the merits of the political subject matter, and keep it on the potential implications for baseball players and teams.

If I were a free agent on or near the level of Harper and Machado, I'd be leery of any long-term deals without opt-out protection. Some of the shining stars of one of our political parties are advocating marginal tax rates of 70% or greater on income over $10 million annually. With state and local taxes this number would jump to around 90% in some cases. Should that party and one of these politicians regain power in the two remaining branches of government where they are currently in the minority, the value of that 10 year/$300 million dollar contract would go way the hell down.

Without an opt-out within 2-3 years, if I were in one of these players' position I'd make damned sure to include a provision that would convert anything over $10 million per year to deferred money in any contract I signed. Even taking into account time value of money, a player would be much better off with effectively thirty years at $300 million rather than the same amount over ten years in the event of such a high marginal tax rate.
 
Enscheff said:
Kinda have to call this take spot on.

If "The Plan" was to add veterans on 1 year deals to allow the young core to have 1 more developmental year (a completely defensible plan even if not my preferred course of action), suddenly pivoting to add Keuchel on a 3+ year deal makes zero sense. Adding Kimbrel on a deal of similar length also makes zero sense. Adding any declining veteran on a long-ish deal, especially a declining pitcher, makes zero sense.

Under "The Plan", the correct move is Gio for 1 year, Keuchel for 1-2 years, or Kimbrel for 1-2 years.
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That seems to be the plan Kiley was saying AA was doing and Kiley said he would endorse.

Ideally you sign a bunch of 1 year deals or 1 year plus a team option deals.

I'd add if that is the plan then I am not happy with the planning.
 
DirkPiggler said:
Trying to discuss this without it getting too political...bear with me please. Let's try not to discuss the merits of the political subject matter, and keep it on the potential implications for baseball players and teams.

If I were a free agent on or near the level of Harper and Machado, I'd be leery of any long-term deals without opt-out protection. Some of the shining stars of one of our political parties are advocating marginal tax rates of 70% or greater on income over $10 million annually. With state and local taxes this number would jump to around 90% in some cases. Should that party and one of these politicians regain power in the two remaining branches of government where they are currently in the minority, the value of that 10 year/$300 million dollar contract would go way the hell down.

Without an opt-out within 2-3 years, if I were in one of these players' position I'd make damned sure to include a provision that would convert anything over $10 million per year to deferred money in any contract I signed. Even taking into account time value of money, a player would be much better off with effectively thirty years at $300 million rather than the same amount over ten years in the event of such a high marginal tax rate.
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Trying to keep it to baseball, if the Occasional Cortex's of the world ever get their way, you'll see the best players in Japan and other leagues and/or you'll see a lot of contracts for $9,999,999 plus deferred years and money to infinity. To fans, this is a game. To players this is a profession in the entertainment industry. To owners it's a business that generates profits and grows in value.

I think the law of unintended consequences comes quickly into play...
 
Southcack77 said:
This is the view that many Braves fans seem to have about this offseason and largely I think it is insane.

The Braves have improved their team and put themselves in position to contend for the division and the pennant. Yes, they're not the prohibitive favorites to win the NL, but the offseason is also not over. And it's not who has the prettiest roster on opening day anyway.
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So far we've only really improved the bench... if that's your idea of a good offseason, I don't know what to tell you.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Exactly. But the worst part is the value in terms of career timing and contractual control of Freddie Freeman. If 2020 is the real year, and it certainly looked that way back in 2015 and looks that way now, then Freddie will be 30 and subject to FA after 2021. He will be past his prime, likely relatively expensive in terms of his percentage of the payroll and 1 season of control beyond the real beginning of the window.

That's what I've been saying all this time.
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agreeing with crazytrain is not a good thing harry
 
CrazyTrain said:
So far we've only really improved the bench... if that's your idea of a good offseason, I don't know what to tell you.
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lol, what? do you even read what you say?
the braves improved 3B, adding a potentially HUGE player, and greatly improved the bench in the process.
there's also likely to be organic improvement due to being a very young team.
i'm still waiting to hear why the braves pitching will be "terrible" this year.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Trying to keep it to baseball, if the Occasional Cortex's of the world ever get their way, you'll see the best players in Japan and other leagues and/or you'll see a lot of contracts for $9,999,999 plus deferred years and money to infinity. To fans, this is a game. To players this is a profession in the entertainment industry. To owners it's a business that generates profits and grows in value.

I think the law of unintended consequences comes quickly into play...
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wanna bet that major league stars aren't even close to *going to japan to play*?
 
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