2018 Offseason And Targets

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50PoundHead said:
That is the contract his agent is likely citing, but I don't think any team is as insane as the Rockies were when the made that deal.

I'll admit I'm a bit of a draft pick hog, but given we won't be serious players in the international market for a few years, we might need to be a bit more careful than other franchises when it comes to signing QO guys.
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The Davis contract is an AAV of $17.3M over 3 years.

The Jansen contract is an AAV of $16M over 5 years for a total of $80M.

Kimbrel set out to smash both the Jansen deal with $100M+ total, and the Davis AAV record, which was an absurd ask from the start. His agent is completely out of touch with modern player valuations if he even floated that type of deal.

He should either top Jansen's $80M total value, or Davis' $17.3M AAV. Since it's clear he won't be getting 5 years, the AAV target is in reach. Since much lesser BP arms already got 3 years, it stands to reason Kimbrel can as well.

I would guess he gets 3 years with an AAV of $17.5M+...so something like 3/53, maybe slightly less if there's a 4th year option with a decent sized buyout. When his price drops down to the 3/50 range I expect to see a few teams jump into the bidding.
 
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thewupk said:
Indeed. It's a big difference and something I'd have no issue giving up. Still dont think anything happens in FA
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So the Dodger were not a revenue sharing team so they would have forfeited their second pick in the draft. That second pick was protected, so they ended up giving up their third pick instead.

Braves as revenue sharing team would give up their third pick. Because they have an extra pick that third pick falls in the second round. The Braves second rounder is not protected.

That doesn't seem terribly fair, but that's I think everyone has been writing it up so far. I hope it's a third for sure.
 
UNCBlue012 said:
Let's never get rid of this kid.

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I love this analysis by Soroka. It also makes me question why the heavy MiLB isn’t using the same ball. I don’t care what the cost is, don’t you want your prospects using the same ball so there isn’t an adjustment period? At the very least, AAA should be using it.
 
Enscheff said:
I would be very surprised if Kimbrel has to settle for a 1 year deal. The Wade Davis contract (3/52) should be out there for him...

Kelly, Ottavino, Familia, and Britton all got 3 years, and Britton got $13M per year. I find it hard to believe Kimbrel can't also get 3 years at something much higher than $13M per year.
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Yeah the market for him has been strange. The QO can't be that big of a detriment, can it? If we're going to sign him and lose a pick I'd rather give him a multi-year deal. Just so weird that one of the top closers in the game hasn't been signed yet
 
Freshmaker said:
Yeah the market for him has been strange. The QO can't be that big of a detriment, can it? If we're going to sign him and lose a pick I'd rather give him a multi-year deal. Just so weird that one of the top closers in the game hasn't been signed yet
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Relievers are generally a bad investment. Age isn’t on his side. Postseason performance is obviously a small sample but is nonetheless a commensurately small red-flag. The QO isn’t helping. And his demands are high because he (rightfully or wrongfully) is looking at what other recent top relievers have netted—relievers with less impressive careers. And his previous team, while flush, is facing serious LT concerns.

Sort of a perfect storm against Kimbrel.
 
I thought i read somewhere if the team with the QO is deep into the luxury tax, you lose your 3rd or 4th rounder. Not totally sure, but if we were to sign Kimbrel and lose a pick, i'd want to at least have him under contract for more than 1 year. Losing a 2nd-4th round pick for 1 year of him doesnt make much sense to me.
 
If we lose a pick with Kimbrel, does it really matter? If he leaves after a one year deal, won’t we pick up a comparable pick the following year? I’d prefer not to have a pick in play, but is it really that big of a deal?
 
brian22 said:
If we lose a pick with Kimbrel, does it really matter? If he leaves after a one year deal, won’t we pick up a comparable pick the following year? I’d prefer not to have a pick in play, but is it really that big of a deal?
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Given our international penalties, it kinda is.
 
brian22 said:
If we lose a pick with Kimbrel, does it really matter? If he leaves after a one year deal, won’t we pick up a comparable pick the following year? I’d prefer not to have a pick in play, but is it really that big of a deal?
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It has already been said that players can only get qualifying offer once. The Braves could not give him a qualifying offer.
 
Aren’t you glad we didn’t trade two or three of our prospects for Archer? Just thinking about how conservative AA has been with the kids. I’m glad about that.
 
Individual-1 said:
With this knowledge, I hope this kid can be the spiritual successor to Medlen like Medlen was to Maddux. Poor Kris... if only not for those injuries...
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Medlen just didn't have the frame to do what he wanted to do. Soroka is a monster of a human. After reading his diagnosis and other info released about his injury, it really does seem like he just had a muscular imbalance, something we probably all deal with being in front of computers all day long, leaning forward. If he corrected the imbalance, he should be fine.
 
Kimbrel doesn't seem like a smart signing but I don't care. Bring him home. Odds are we will be trading for a reliever at the trade deadline. Let's fix the pen now and save the prospects. I need Venters to Kimbrel saving games again in my life.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Kimbrel doesn't seem like a smart signing but I don't care. Bring him home. Odds are we will be trading for a reliever at the trade deadline. Let's fix the pen now and save the prospects. I need Venters to Kimbrel saving games again in my life.
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I’m gonna agree. His price has to have came way down by now. I’d offer 3/45 with an option for a 4th year with a 3 million buyout. He may bite.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Kimbrel doesn't seem like a smart signing but I don't care. Bring him home. Odds are we will be trading for a reliever at the trade deadline. Let's fix the pen now and save the prospects. I need Venters to Kimbrel saving games again in my life.
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Having 2/3 of the O'Ventebrel monster in the pen would be a sight for sore eyes :tchop:
 
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