nick signed for $6M. teheran is making $11M. that's $17M. i don't think having teheran stopped them from pursuing a $6M arm. i think they're choosing to role with the young guys and would have whether teheran was here or not.
2018 Offseason And Targets
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nick signed for $6M. teheran is making $11M. that's $17M. i don't think having teheran stopped them from pursuing a $6M arm. i think they're choosing to role with the young guys and would have whether teheran was here or not.
The Teheran extension was not a bad decision, and grading these decisions after the fact is moronic.
Julio Teheran was a good young pitcher that the Braves extended by buying control over 2 FA years that covered the entirety of his 20s with the option, and only guaranteed him money through his age 28 season. That was a perfectly logical and valuable contract extension. The extension was a perfectly reasonable gamble to make at the time...even if it didn't pay off as well as hoped.
The mistake (as noted 50 times by now) was not dealing him during the rebuild as if his declining velocity wasn't a huge red flag.
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I would rather have him 2-3 years also...just saying in general. I trust AA will make the right call on that one.
I think not signing Harper (if it happens), will helps them long term.
It’s just funny that they bragged about having “money to burn”, and although they have added some great players through trades....no big names are really wanting to go there.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
That's with the benefit of hindsight. At the time the deal was signed a reasonable projection for Teheran would have called for him to be a 2-3 WAR per year player over the life of the contract.
Right now I would buy out Folty's first pre-season year if we can get it priced at the level of a 1.5 WAR pitcher with a similar option for the next year. That's what we did with Teheran and I would repeat it with Folty (or any similar pitcher).
Southcack77
Well-known member
Having neither Markakis nor Teheran would free up the 16-18m that Brantley signed for. There would be no actual need to replace Teheran, but the Braves could probably still afford a stop-gap. the Braves could have signed one already within their budget, but they do not really have anywhere to put that player and still give opportunities to Soroka, Gohara, Fried. Let alone the rest.
Teheran had to be the luckiest pitcher in baseball in some time to put up more than .5 a win last year.
His $/win projection is something like 20m.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Anyone suggesting a team should give a pitcher guaranteed money into their 30s when they already control the entirety of their 20s is wrong.
I understand aging curves. I'd be willing to sign Folty for his age 30 season if he is priced as a 1.5 WAR pitcher for that year.
And in doing do you will have changed the following contract:
2019 (27): $5.5M guaranteed
2020 (28): ~$9M option, $0 buyout
2021 (29): ~$13M option, $0 buyout
into:
2019 (27): $5.5M guaranteed
2020 (28): ~$9M guaranteed
2021 (29): ~$13M guaranteed
2022 (30): ~$15M guaranteed
The Braves will have taken on 3 more years of guaranteed seasons, 2 of which they already control with cheap options that could be declined at any point, in exchange for 1 season of a 3+ win pitcher who is likely entering his decline phase.
The risk/reward doesn't seem justified. Age 30+ seasons for SPs simply aren't valuable enough to justify guaranteeing the arb years.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'll do a simplified scenario analysis that gives an idea of why the risk may be worth taking.
Lets say there is a 20% chance of some catastrophic injury. And to make the whole thing easier to analyze, let's say the injury happens right at the end of 2020. Let's further assume he is a 3 WAR player if that catastrophic injury doesn't happen (not terribly realistic but makes the analysis easy).
Now lets look at two scenarios. Scenario 1 is the team takes him to arb year by year. Scenario 2 involves signing him for 1 free agent year with an option for the second year at the market price for a 1.5 WAR player.
Since the injury happens at the end of 2020 we need to consider what happens after 2020 in the two scenarios.
Scenario 1
80% chance no injury: 3 WAR season in 2021. 1.5 WAR of surplus.
20% chance of catastrophic injury at the end of 2020. Team releases him with no loss to the club.
Expected surplus is .80*1.5 or 1.2 WAR
Scenario 2
If no injury you get 3 WAR seasons from him in 2021, 2022 and 2023 with a surplus of 1.5 each year. Total surplus 4.5 if no injury.
If injury you are on the hook and pay 1.5 WAR for no production in 2021 and 2022.
Expected surplus is .8*4.5-.2*3=3.6-0.6 or 3.0 WAR
To make this whole thing easy to analyze I did make some simplifying assumptions. You may want to try other assumptions (for example 10% injury risk at the end of each season). You can also do an aging curve so that in the absence of catastrophic injury he is a 3.2 WAR pitcher in 2021, 3.0 in 2022 and 2.8 in 2023.
The catastrophic injury could happen the day after he signs the contract. I concede in that scenario the contract is a bad deal.
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Southcack77
Well-known member
In general, I think Folty is a better raw talent than Teheran. he just put up a much better season than Teheran's peak. Getting someone coming off a 4 win breakout to commit to 1.5 win payout is possibly a better deal than what Teheran agreed to, but I would still not be in any hurry to do it. ---- BUT Teheran is only guaranteed through Age 28.
That's basically a gamble on him retaining value. I'm not sure there is any real need to gamble like that unless you have a lot of certainty he is a really top end starter. I'm not quite there with Folty, so my inclination would be to let it ride.
I wasn't ever all that high on Teheran and I didn't really see the need to make him a long term brave. I can't say I'd anticipated that he would be bullpen bait by the end of the deal, but it's not shocking.
In general, I have less interest in extensions of players before being certain of them. Seems like an unnecessary gamble for most players. Acuña yes, if you don't have to pay him market.
....
On a different matter, its unquestioned that Teheran's deal turned out poorly. Sure, process over hindsight, but we can learn things from past processes that were seen as wise but turned out to be duds.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
This year is what would have been Teheran's first year of free agency. He is going to make 11M with a club option for 12M. That's roughly the going price for a 1.5 win player at the time he signed.
I'm not sure Folty should be regarded as the superior pitcher at similar points in their career. Teheran was slated to hit free agency at a younger age. He had the better pedigree coming up in the minors.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Personally, unless you are reasonably confident you have one of the best pitchers in the game the risk is the most important thing to avoid. Particularly, when you have put your chips all in on producing pitching internally.
Will say the FIP curve between 28-30 isn't hugely concerning. Not sure what numbers are there but looks something <.25 average increase from 28 - 30. I treasure the flexibility over the illusion of security.
as I understand the hip way of doing things -- your mid-markets should use up cheap years of pitching and move on.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Folty has better raw stuff and has put up a .7 win better season than anything Teheran every did. But like I said, I'm not quite there on believing Folty is a 4+ win pitcher and I'd lean against giving him that deal.
I don't and did not think it was a no brainer that Teheran would be a 1.5 win pitcher at 28. If he was a 1.5 win pitcher it wouldn't really be that big a coup. Yet you took on the risk of him getting injured or of him not being good, which just happens to be the reality that we are living in.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I agree that these sorts of extensions work better with position players. Less risk.
But I also think there is the case to be made that we can afford to (and should) taking a prudent gamble on one starting pitcher. The question is whether Folty is that pitcher. Ideally it should be more like the extensions the White Sox made to Sale or the Indians to Kluber. Guys whose talent is pitched a bit higher. Among the guys within our system, Folty might be the best one to do this with.
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The ideal SP extension candidate is exactly what Teheran was: A durable 3+ win SP who is scheduled to hit FA at the age of 26-29.
The pitcher to do this with was Soroka, who could have been extended to buy a FA year in his 20s. Then he got hurt, and the chances he is the guy to extend is much less than it was. There is still time for him to get over these shoulder issues and become that guy though.
Wright will probably be too old when he debuts. Touki is a candidate if he sticks in the rotation. Gohara has the talent, but probably won't be that guy either. Anderson is another strong extension candidate if he takes off like some folks think he will.
If the Braves don't end up developing a pitcher who fits that profile, then they shouldn't hand out an extension just to hand one out. There are always 2 win SPs on the market (like Gio) who require 1-2 years of risk, rather than taking on 4+ years of risk with an ill-advised extension.
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Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I dont think buying out a FA year or two from Folty would hurt. But i guess you might need to see him repeat this again to see it was not a fluke, but he also might get more expensive if he has another All-Star year.
I get both sides of the argument.
I get both sides of the argument.
You guys still miss the point -
Markakis was projected to get as much as $10 million in free-agency (and was said to have higher offers than what he took to come back). That $6 million savings combined with replacing Teheran with a SP making the minimum still doesn't give you enough to cover what Brantley got - and that assumes Touki/Fried/Soroka/Wright replicates Julio's production (a fair assumption). If everyone else views Teheran as the $6 million Pitcher Southcack does, you'd still have to have added something of substantial value to get someone to take him and clear the money (not to mention likely having to come up with extra $$$ to get him to come here rather than go to Houston where he can DH to help him stay healthy).
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