2018 Offseason And Targets

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Carp said:
Again, I agree with that. Pointing out there are scenarios where it can be beneficial to the team isn't a disagreement.
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but a team still wouldn’t push for an opt out. that doesn’t make sense. it can end up being good for a team but it still gives the player more control. one person said harper didn’t want one. more likely the phillies wouldn’t give him one. there’s no downside for harper himself to have the opt out. there is downside for the team.
 
Carp said:
Not sure where you're going here. He's never going to have surplus value.
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Incorrect.

A front loaded contract with a guy who ages like Beltre could absolutely have surplus value in his mid-30s at the tail end of Machado's deal.

Harper turning into the perennial 6+ win monster everyone wants to believe he is will also give him plenty of surplus value for the duration of that contract.

An opt out removes any chance of the team benefiting from those scenarios. Therefore, opt outs are a plus for players. Period.
 
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Super said:
but a team still wouldn’t push for an opt out. that doesn’t make sense. it can end up being good for a team but it still gives the player more control. one person said harper didn’t want one. more likely the phillies wouldn’t give him one. there’s no downside for harper himself to have the opt out. there is downside for the team.
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The downside for Harper was that an opt out likely meant he wouldn't get $330M...because opt outs are valuable for the player.

Considering all Boras/Harper wanted to see was "Harper signs largest contract in the history of sports" plastered on every major news outlet, it makes sense he wouldn't concede the guaranteed money required to get an opt out.
 
Let's assume the 3 years for 90 million offers to machado and Harper were real for a minute. So assume we got 30 million to play with at deadline. Who are some on the guys on clubs likely to fall out of contention that we could potentially snag by taking on their salary?
 
msstate7 said:
Let's assume the 3 years for 90 million offers to machado and Harper were real for a minute. So assume we got 30 million to play with at deadline. Who are some on the guys on clubs likely to fall out of contention that we could potentially snag by taking on their salary?
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Don’t forget 30 mil now is like 60 mil at the deadline. They won’t land multiple players that fill the prorated 30 mil amount. And if that’s the case all this talk about spending later is lip service. Very frustrating. They don’t necessarily need to spend all of it now, but cmon spend some of it now bc we all know it’s not going to all be spent later. Signing Kimbrel now would help over the course of the season and still leave extra money for a deadline acquisition. But just as always, the penny pinchers would rather have their extra money line their pockets than help build the team.
 
msstate7 said:
Let's assume the 3 years for 90 million offers to machado and Harper were real for a minute. So assume we got 30 million to play with at deadline. Who are some on the guys on clubs likely to fall out of contention that we could potentially snag by taking on their salary?
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First guy that comes to my mind is Madison Bumbarner. Giants are very unlikely to contend and they may dangle him at the deadline to get some youngsters. I also look at Arizona having a tough season possibly. If that happens, Archie Bradley is one I’m watching for. I know some may say Greinke, but that may still this year be a tough one to deal.
 
Enscheff said:
The downside for Harper was that an opt out likely meant he wouldn't get $330M...because opt outs are valuable for the player.

Considering all Boras/Harper wanted to see was "Harper signs largest contract in the history of sports" plastered on every major news outlet, it makes sense he wouldn't concede the guaranteed money required to get an opt out.
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true. i guess i meant functionally having one is only advantageous for him.
 
Enscheff said:
The downside for Harper was that an opt out likely meant he wouldn't get $330M...because opt outs are valuable for the player.

Considering all Boras/Harper wanted to see was "Harper signs largest contract in the history of sports" plastered on every major news outlet, it makes sense he wouldn't concede the guaranteed money required to get an opt out.
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Have to think Trout will probably own that title soon.
 
CrimsonCowboy said:
Phillies are not going to enjoy that contract in a few years, IMO
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Yeah, I am not disappointed to see the Phillies make this deal. ZiPs projects Harper as below replacement level over the last 3 years of the deal, so even the last 4-5 (6?) years of the deal may be under water from a value standpoint. Harper seems to keep his nose clean off the field, but his personality is not exactly endearing. I could see things getting toxic between him and the Philly fan base, for sure.

Phils look good on paper after all these adds, but I don't envy the job Gabe Kapler will have in front of him this year. A lot of high profile additions and egos to patch together, and a big uptick in pressure to perform. They have moved a ton of future assets into the present. They zigged and we zagged. I prefer zagging.
 
CrimsonCowboy said:
Phillies are not going to enjoy that contract in a few years, IMO
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Doubt it. In 8 years 25 million per will be standard for 2.5 win guys. It is probably front loaded heavy the first three years to make it closer to 18 million the last fiver or so. Face reality. Faillies are not dumb and the Brave have terry hamstringing us to very risky and expensive commercial real estate investments. If the team vaulters the whole thing will collapse. Paying down team debt is a smart move. But he should have balanced that with spending on the team to keep dollars flowing into the investment. A fan can spin this anyway they want. But reality is the faillies improved at a significant cost. But they definitely improved. The Braves made a less risky move to improve but may very well end up losing ground because the other teams improved more. The FO decided to role with what we have and hope. Terrible plan imo.
 
Super said:
but a team still wouldn’t push for an opt out. that doesn’t make sense. it can end up being good for a team but it still gives the player more control. one person said harper didn’t want one. more likely the phillies wouldn’t give him one. there’s no downside for harper himself to have the opt out. there is downside for the team.
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I agree.
 
Enscheff said:
Incorrect.

A front loaded contract with a guy who ages like Beltre could absolutely have surplus value in his mid-30s at the tail end of Machado's deal.

Harper turning into the perennial 6+ win monster everyone wants to believe he is will also give him plenty of surplus value for the duration of that contract.

An opt out removes any chance of the team benefiting from those scenarios. Therefore, opt outs are a plus for players. Period.
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They would have to trade him before the opt out though, as that scenario you just portrayed would surely have the player opting out the first chance he got.
 
C - realmuto
1b - Hoskins
2b - Hernandez
Ss - segura
3b - Franco
Lf - mccutchen
Cf - Herrera
Rf - Harper

How much better is this lineup defensively than last season?

C - Mac/flowers
1b - FF
2b - albies
Ss - Swanson
3b - Donaldson
Lf - acuna
Cf - ender
Rf - markakis

I still think you can make a case that we have 3 hitters as good as their best, Harper. Gonna need some offense from Swanson this year. If we trust camargo to back up at ss, wish we'd fill culberson's spot with more offense
 
msstate7 said:
C - realmuto
1b - Hoskins
2b - Hernandez
Ss - segura
3b - Franco
Lf - mccutchen
Cf - Herrera
Rf - Harper

How much better is this lineup defensively than last season?

C - Mac/flowers
1b - FF
2b - albies
Ss - Swanson
3b - Donaldson
Lf - acuna
Cf - ender
Rf - markakis

I still think you can make a case that we have 3 hitters as good as their best, Harper. Gonna need some offense from Swanson this year. If we trust camargo to back up at ss, wish we'd fill culberson's spot with more offense
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If you go position by position, i have it C- Phi, 1B- Atl, 2B- Atl, SS- Phi, 3B- Atl, LF- Atl, CF- Push, RF- Phi.

Bullpen- push, rotation-tough to say as of now, neither rotation is particularly great, Braves have potential with the arms they have.

Regarding defense, they're better defensively but still not insanely better on that end.
 
IMO as of today:

NL East -

Washington

then in any order and likely dependant on health and luck

Phillies
Mets
Braves

SP - Nats, Mets, Braves, Phillies
RP - Mets, Phillies, Braves, Nats
Lineup - Phillies, Nats, Braves, Mets
Bench - Nats, Braves, Phillies, Mets

Best overall Pitching - Mets, Nats, Phillies, Braves
Best overall hitting - Phillies, Nats, Braves, Mets

Keuchel, Kimbrel, Gonzalez, Maldonado, Madson, Warren, Sipp left to sign.

If the Braves added Keuchel they still wouldn't pass the Nats or Mets. I see the Phillies making a run.
If they signed Kimbrel they probably pass Philly but not the Mets in RP. Expect the Nats to make an offer IF he signs in the NL East.
Gonzalez would be filler and not move the needle at all for the Braves. Again Phillies maybe.
Maldonado might end in Philly.
Braves probably get one of Madson, Warren or Sipp.
Or they get nothing and the NL ends up with none of the leftovers.

Health and luck. That's what the Braves are praying for now.
 
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