What would you think about offering Acuna a 10 year $175M contract extension tomorrow?
I know the club control issue and arbitration issue and risk associated with him not being who we think he will be, BUT:
If he gets close to FA and he's anywhere near as good as he is now, then the Braves won't be able to afford re-signing him.
If he continues on the trajectory he's on now he's probably looking at (2)$0.6M, (3)$2.5M, (4)$5M, (5) $10M, (6)$20M through arbitration, so assuming those numbers are close, you overpay by about $49.5M
Let's assume the next 5 years he averages $30M per year (which seems a good bet given his expected ability and the current market) or $150M, you underpay by $72.5M
But you also keep him in Atlanta (which isn't happening without an extension), keep him through and a bit past his prime (31), and locks in a relatively low salary for a player of his skills (you hope) for 5 years.
In other words, assuming performance and freedom from catastrophic injury, he's a bargain the last five years of his contract, even while overpaying on the front side.
I realize that waiting another year, maybe two, is safer, but waiting brings its own risk. Does the AAV have to go up? Is it still 10 years, taking you through age 33? Is he in arbitration and willing to bet on himself cruising into a true FA?
Considering the concept of ramp up to being competitive, which is what AA appears to be doing, it might make sense to gamble.
