Arizona Fall League
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yes each person is unique. On that we can agree.
I suspect tho that McCann is not unique among catchers for nagging injuries and tailing off toward the end of the season.
That is a disturbing trend and not one that I want to gamble on for the next 4 years at 16 million per year. Not when Gattis/CB are basically ready to take over.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
What is a disturbing trend? Being unique? Tailing off? Nagging injuries?
Are you thinking there is a catcher out there who doesn't tail off or have nagging injuries? Gattis has missed time the past two seasons with injuries. So has Bethancourt (broken thumb last year, hamstring this year). Does that constitute a worrisome trend?
Within the universe of catchers, McCann actually stands out for being unusually productive, consistent and yes durable.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
True. But I thought we were debating paying Infante 8-10M versus paying McCann 15-16M.
If we keep McCann, Gattis becomes our supersub in 2014.
If we sign Infante instead, I assume he will get most of the playing time at second, and our bench will look something like this (Laird, Pena, Schafer, Reed Johnson, Terdoslavich).
To me we are a stronger team with both McCann and Gattis. We take more risk I agree. But we also preserve what I view as a very intriguing option, which would be trading Gattis sometime down the road to an American League team.
By the way you should check out the aging curves of the players with high similarity scores to Infante. Some of them declined very sharply after age 31. Second base is also a position where players suffer quite a bit of wear and tear.
Yup, that is why I don't see why we are contemplating spending a lot of money on a catcher. Sure, Gattis might be rough at the plate (I think he will be fine) but he is overall a solid defensive catcher.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Agree with thethe here.
I love Mac, but 15-16 million for 4-5 years is a LOT.
With CB/Gattis waiting in the wings who are on the league minimum for the next 2-3 years, we can use Mac's money elsewhere.
Whether thats trying to extend core players, or adding a key bullpen or bench piece.
Or whatever that may be.
I love Mac, but 15-16 million for 4-5 years is a LOT.
With CB/Gattis waiting in the wings who are on the league minimum for the next 2-3 years, we can use Mac's money elsewhere.
Whether thats trying to extend core players, or adding a key bullpen or bench piece.
Or whatever that may be.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
During the season, La Stella swung at a ridiculously low 3.6% of pitches outside the strike zone. The guy has the best strike zone judgement in the system.
Another interesting tidbit is that Salcedo swung at only 9.4% of pitches that were outside the zone, suggesting that he actually has a pretty good idea what is and isn't a strike. It also suggests that he has a big fat hole in his swing that he hasn't closed up, because he swings and misses on a lot of pitches in the zone.
From Frangraphs:
Regarding Thomas La Stella
Since last week’s edition of the batting leaderboard, Atlanta infield prospect Thomas La Stella has recorded seven walks in 18 plate appearances — all this while striking out zero times. For La Stella to control the plate so well isn’t an entirely suprising development. He posted walk and strikeout rates of 11.5% and 10.5%, respectively, in 323 PAs at Double-A Mississippi. He’s posted similarly excellent rates at other levels, previously.
If one takes for granted his plate discipline and what appears to be below-average second-base defense*, then projecting La Stella as a major-leaguer becomes a matter mostly of targeting his home-run rate (HRC%) on contact and BABIP.
*Note: the author isn’t suggesting that one ought, necessarily, to take either of these for granted. For the sake of the minor experiment below, however, that’s what’s happening.
Below are four possibilities for a major-league version of La Stella, if one controls for everything but HRC% and BABIP. The walk and strikeout rates included here are those projected by Steamer for 2014. The defensive constant presupposes either a -5 defender at second base (Dan Uggla, basically) or a +5 defender in left field (i.e. another destination for defensive misfits).
Line PA BB% K% HRC% BABIP Fld+Pos HR AVG OBP SLG Off Def WAR
1 550 7.3% 10.2% 1.5% .280 -2.5 7 .260 .319 .360 -6 -3 1.1
2 550 7.3% 10.2% 2.5% .280 -2.5 11 .267 .325 .396 0 -3 1.7
3 550 7.3% 10.2% 1.5% .300 -2.5 7 .278 .335 .378 0 -3 1.7
4 550 7.3% 10.2% 2.5% .300 -2.5 11 .284 .341 .413 6 -3 2.4
Line 1 represents La Stella’s 2014 line according to Steamer, more or less. A 1.5% HRC is what La Stella recorded in 2013 at Mississippi, as well. Line 2 features 2.5% HRC, i.e. what La Stella has posted over the entirety of his minor-league career. It wouldn’t be surprising, necessarily, for La Stella to hit for more power, either, as he advances toward complete physical maturity. Line 3 features La Stella with his Steamer home-run projection, but with a major-league average BABIP. Not an impossibility, that. Finally, Line 4 is an example of La Stella recording the more productive versions of his HRC% and BABIP. It’s probably hard to get much more reasonably optimistic than this final example, in terms of La Stella’s true talent.
Regarding Thomas La Stella
Since last week’s edition of the batting leaderboard, Atlanta infield prospect Thomas La Stella has recorded seven walks in 18 plate appearances — all this while striking out zero times. For La Stella to control the plate so well isn’t an entirely suprising development. He posted walk and strikeout rates of 11.5% and 10.5%, respectively, in 323 PAs at Double-A Mississippi. He’s posted similarly excellent rates at other levels, previously.
If one takes for granted his plate discipline and what appears to be below-average second-base defense*, then projecting La Stella as a major-leaguer becomes a matter mostly of targeting his home-run rate (HRC%) on contact and BABIP.
*Note: the author isn’t suggesting that one ought, necessarily, to take either of these for granted. For the sake of the minor experiment below, however, that’s what’s happening.
Below are four possibilities for a major-league version of La Stella, if one controls for everything but HRC% and BABIP. The walk and strikeout rates included here are those projected by Steamer for 2014. The defensive constant presupposes either a -5 defender at second base (Dan Uggla, basically) or a +5 defender in left field (i.e. another destination for defensive misfits).
Line PA BB% K% HRC% BABIP Fld+Pos HR AVG OBP SLG Off Def WAR
1 550 7.3% 10.2% 1.5% .280 -2.5 7 .260 .319 .360 -6 -3 1.1
2 550 7.3% 10.2% 2.5% .280 -2.5 11 .267 .325 .396 0 -3 1.7
3 550 7.3% 10.2% 1.5% .300 -2.5 7 .278 .335 .378 0 -3 1.7
4 550 7.3% 10.2% 2.5% .300 -2.5 11 .284 .341 .413 6 -3 2.4
Line 1 represents La Stella’s 2014 line according to Steamer, more or less. A 1.5% HRC is what La Stella recorded in 2013 at Mississippi, as well. Line 2 features 2.5% HRC, i.e. what La Stella has posted over the entirety of his minor-league career. It wouldn’t be surprising, necessarily, for La Stella to hit for more power, either, as he advances toward complete physical maturity. Line 3 features La Stella with his Steamer home-run projection, but with a major-league average BABIP. Not an impossibility, that. Finally, Line 4 is an example of La Stella recording the more productive versions of his HRC% and BABIP. It’s probably hard to get much more reasonably optimistic than this final example, in terms of La Stella’s true talent.
Gattis our supersub?
He can only play catcher decently, a ticking time bomb left field, and probably first base.
When I think of super sub, I generally think of any infield position plus a corner outfield position.
He can only play catcher decently, a ticking time bomb left field, and probably first base.
When I think of super sub, I generally think of any infield position plus a corner outfield position.
I agree with this. Gattis should be our everyday catcher. The experiment with him in LF needs to be over.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
The projections aren't very kind to him right now outside of anticipating that his home run contact % will go up some.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I'm fine with the averages, any of them are possible, but I think his BB% will be better than the projections.