What a Reconstructed Pen Might Look Like

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
We've had significant injuries to Viz and O'Day, minor injuries to others, and performance issues with a significant number of relievers. There is some reconstruction work that lies ahead and I wanted to throw out for discussion names and ideas for reconfiguring the pen:

RHP (4): Pick up 2 new arms. Kimbrel could be one. Among players for teams falling out of contention very quickly I have interest in Givens from the Orioles and Steckenrider from the Marlins. Others will undoubtedly become available. But the idea is to pick up 2 new arms. The remaining 2 RHP will come from Jackson, Webb, Tomlin, Winkler, Parsons, Sobotka, Wilson, Touki, Wright depending on effectiveness.

LHP (4): Pick up 1 new arm. Smith and Watson from the Giants are possibilities. Minter will remain. And the last two will come from Venters, Biddle, Dayton, Newk and Blevins depending upon effectiveness.

The four high leverage guys would be the 2 new RHP and 1 new LHP along with Minter. Everyone else would move to a situational or lower leverage role to which they are better suited.

Our main problem right now is relying on unproven guys in fairly high leverage roles. We have a need for some significant reconstruction. At the same time, the pen is the area where a mid-season upgrade is easiest to accomplish. There are always plenty of solid options available. Plus the circumstance of Kimbrel being available as a FA this year.
 
I'm not sure how likely it is to acquire 3 high leverage BP arms to completely remake the BP when nearly every contender is going to be trying to add to the BP.

Simply pushing Newk, Wilson and Touki to the BP, and acquiring 1 of the Giants LHP is a much more realistic route for an organization brimming with talented arms.

I still think Kimbrel ends up as a Brave, but that's probably just the homer in me talking.
 
yeah, kimbrel (satan willing), one of newk, touki, or wilson succeeding in the BP role, and one trade acquisition should shape it up nicely.
 
nsacpi said:
We've had significant injuries to Viz and O'Day, minor injuries to others, and performance issues with a significant number of relievers. There is some reconstruction work that lies ahead and I wanted to throw out for discussion names and ideas for reconfiguring the pen:

RHP (4): Pick up 2 new arms. Kimbrel could be one. Among players for teams falling out of contention very quickly I have interest in Givens from the Orioles and Steckenrider from the Marlins. Others will undoubtedly become available. But the idea is to pick up 2 new arms. The remaining 2 RHP will come from Jackson, Webb, Tomlin, Winkler, Parsons, Sobotka, Wilson, Touki, Wright depending on effectiveness.

LHP (4): Pick up 1 new arm. Smith and Watson from the Giants are possibilities. Minter will remain. And the last two will come from Venters, Biddle, Dayton, Newk and Blevins depending upon effectiveness.

The four high leverage guys would be the 2 new RHP and 1 new LHP along with Minter. Everyone else would move to a situational or lower leverage role to which they are better suited.

Our main problem right now is relying on unproven guys in fairly high leverage roles. We have a need for some significant reconstruction. At the same time, the pen is the area where a mid-season upgrade is easiest to accomplish. There are always plenty of solid options available. Plus the circumstance of Kimbrel being available as a FA this year.
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Paying prospect costs for relievers in season tends to be less than ideal.

If they can pick up Kimbrel and your man off the unemployment line that would be pretty good. Then if needed they can look into another acquisition as well. Since things have stabilized a bit, I think I would lean towards riding this out a bit more and looking to my internal options while waiting on some milestone dates for potential candidates.
 
Dude, pen is fixed. Since last Monday, here's the numbers (throwing out Carle who was obviously the only issue)...
26.2 ip 17 h 2 er 9 bb 29 k
Era = 0.68
Whip = 0.99

Now that Carle is gone, championship quality
 
I still think one of Biddle and or Sobotka will play a key role before it is all said and done. The talent is there for both to be successful. They are just not executing.
 
Southcack77 said:
Paying prospect costs for relievers in season tends to be less than ideal.

If they can pick up Kimbrel and your man off the unemployment line that would be pretty good. Then if needed they can look into another acquisition as well. Since things have stabilized a bit, I think I would lean towards riding this out a bit more and looking to my internal options while waiting on some milestone dates for potential candidates.
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I'm as much of a prospect hoarder and value trader as anyone, and would give the prospect cost a fair amount of weight in deciding which deals to make to upgrade the pen. There are ways to do this without giving up much in the way of prospects. Getting Kimbrel is obviously one way. Another is acquiring someone who is a rental, as we did with Brad Brach last year. Will Smith for example is going to be a free agent. The third possibility is to get someone with the kind of contract that eats up any surplus value. Here I have in mind Ian Kennedy, who seems to be on his way to making a very successful transition to the pen. If we took on most of his contract, we wouldn't have to give up much in the way of prospects.
 
msstate7 said:
Dude, pen is fixed. Since last Monday, here's the numbers (throwing out Carle who was obviously the only issue)...
26.2 ip 17 h 2 er 9 bb 29 k
Era = 0.68
Whip = 0.99

Now that Carle is gone, championship quality
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The pen is not fixed. We have guys pitching in high leverage situations who are not really ready for those roles.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm not sure how likely it is to acquire 3 high leverage BP arms to completely remake the BP when nearly every contender is going to be trying to add to the BP.

Simply pushing Newk, Wilson and Touki to the BP, and acquiring 1 of the Giants LHP is a much more realistic route for an organization brimming with talented arms.

I still think Kimbrel ends up as a Brave, but that's probably just the homer in me talking.
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Unless needs arise in other areas, we can concentrate resources on the pen. At this point I would be inclined to be ambitious about upgrading it over the next couple months.

We are fortunate so far in having a healthy lineup with guys like Duvall and Riley doing well in AAA. The rotation has gotten a boost from two of the young guys taking a big step forward. We are in a position to concentrate resources on the pen.
 
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Kimbrel will be a Brave in a month imo. I think they have an agreement in place and are just waiting till the draft is over.
 
I'd love to see us use more multi-inning guys vs hoping 3-5 guys all have it for a night.

The more I hear Newk talk the more I think he's mentally a RP. He's a grip it and rip it guy.

If we had Newk, Touki, Weigel (later in the year), Wilson, Wright, Gohara (if he's ever healthy) going up and down as multi inning guys , then I think we'd have a big time pen. We don't have to have guys like Touki as RP forever, but for this year it makes sense.

5-6 innings of a starter and 2-3 innings of one of those guys should put you in a good spot most nights.

Why couldn't we tell one of those guys when the starter gets through the lineup the second time you are up?
 
Super said:
yeah, kimbrel (satan willing), one of newk, touki, or wilson succeeding in the BP role, and one trade acquisition should shape it up nicely.
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Russ2dollas said:
I'd love to see us use more multi-inning guys vs hoping 3-5 guys all have it for a night.

The more I hear Newk talk the more I think he's mentally a RP. He's a grip it and rip it guy.

If we had Newk, Touki, Weigel (later in the year), Wilson, Wright, Gohara (if he's ever healthy) going up and down as multi inning guys , then I think we'd have a big time pen. We don't have to have guys like Touki as RP forever, but for this year it makes sense.

5-6 innings of a starter and 2-3 innings of one of those guys should put you in a good spot most nights.

Why couldn't we tell one of those guys when the starter gets through the lineup the second time you are up?
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my reluctance to rely on the in-house options mainly has to do with the walk rates:

Touki 6.0 per nine innings so far in his major league career

Newk 4.7

Sobotka 6.2

Wilson 7.9

Wright 7.2

Some of these are small samples to be sure. But I think they are all relatively high risk. I'd be ok assuming one of them can emerge to give us reliable innings this year. But to assume two or more will I think is being a bit too optimistic.

In contrast:

Will Smith 3.3 career and under 3.0 in 2018 and so far in 2019

Mychal Givens 3.3

Ian Kennedy 3.0 career 1.1 in 2019

We need to be populating our pen mostly with guys with a track record of getting it done at the major league level. Mostly. And certainly we should not be counting on guys like Jackson and Tomlin to be pitching in high leverage situations.
 
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msstate7 said:
When some of the fringe guys fall apart, wonder if Troy bacon, ynoa, and weigel could get a shot
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Guys like Bacon and Ynoa are going to be part our trade bait to get some help for the major league pen. I'd try to hold onto Weigel.

The Orioles would probably consider Ynoa and Bacon for Givens.
 
nsacpi said:
my reluctance to rely on the in-house options mainly has to do with the walk rates:

Touki 6.0 per nine innings so far in his major league career

Newk 4.7

Sobotka 6.2

Wilson 7.9

Wright 7.2

Some of these are small samples to be sure. But I think they are all relatively high risk. I'd be ok assuming one of them can emerge to give us reliable innings this year. But to assume two or more will I think is being a bit too optimistic.

In contrast:

Will Smith 3.3 career and under 3.0 in 2018 and so far in 2019

Mychal Givens 3.3

Ian Kennedy 3.0 career 1.1 in 2019

We need to be populating our pen mostly with guys with a track record of getting it done at the major league level. Mostly. And certainly we should not be counting on guys like Jackson and Tomlin to be pitching in high leverage situations.
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I don’t have the numbers. It seems like newk, Wright and Wilson have issues later in innings. Newk can’t focus. Wright has issues turning a lineup over. Wilson lacks secondary stuff
 
Don't forget Teheran possibly gets sent to the pen.

It's a shame to have to put Newk in the pen. Wright needs to work on some things. I definitely think Touki and Wilson would instantly be great pen pieces if we start using them there. I sort of always felt Weigel was destined for the pen. Same with Muller. Allard maybe can throw harder if it's just for a batter or two.

So we just need to hold out for a month to get Kimbrell and then Weigel, Muller, etc.
 
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