nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I want to know who radicalized him.
2019 MLB Draft Thread
- Thread starter CJ9
- Start date
I want to know who radicalized him.
Hudson2
Well-known member
Yeah but daddy ain’t gonna pay for everything for forever. If he is drafted in the first round and declines then he isn’t very smart imo.
Again, IF the plan is to spend on kids taken with the first two picks while digging for $100,000 "finds", what difference does that make? Apparently they want WHATEVER player they might get at #60 - and that's fine. Just doesn't seem to make much sense to spend big on the first two picks and pinch pennies with whomever you take right after them when you could've fixed the bullpen to a large extent while your window is wide open.
Even if you kept the pick (which was obviously the choice), it'd be interesting to see how many guys taken at #60 that signed for slot value have turned out to be such "good value" since the slotting system started.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
A list of pitchers taken in the first round, but not super early:
2006 Kershaw 7th pick (5th pitcher)
2006 Lincecum 10 (6)
2006 Scherzer 11 (7)
2007 Bumgarner 10 (5)
2010 Sale 13 (8)
2011 Jose Fernandez 14 (7)
2015 Buehler 24 (10)
2015 Soroka 28 (12)
Point is that partly due to injuries ordering pitching prospects (even within the confines of the first round) is very tough. Ordering hitters is hard too, but significantly less uncertainty. I would never take a pitcher (well maybe with very rare exceptions) with a top 3 pick. Just because at that point in the draft hitters turn out better on average and it is relatively easy to order the hitting prospects. As you move past the first five picks in the first round the risk-reward to taking a pitcher evens out a bit.
A useful term from economics is "opportunity cost." If you take a pitcher at #2 in the first round and he blows out his arm the opportunity cost (what you have forsaken to take him) is very high. If you take one at #28 it is not nearly as high. And as we see from my list often the guys who go on to have the best pitching career are the ones who are the taken after quite a few other pitchers are taken.
2006 Kershaw 7th pick (5th pitcher)
2006 Lincecum 10 (6)
2006 Scherzer 11 (7)
2007 Bumgarner 10 (5)
2010 Sale 13 (8)
2011 Jose Fernandez 14 (7)
2015 Buehler 24 (10)
2015 Soroka 28 (12)
Point is that partly due to injuries ordering pitching prospects (even within the confines of the first round) is very tough. Ordering hitters is hard too, but significantly less uncertainty. I would never take a pitcher (well maybe with very rare exceptions) with a top 3 pick. Just because at that point in the draft hitters turn out better on average and it is relatively easy to order the hitting prospects. As you move past the first five picks in the first round the risk-reward to taking a pitcher evens out a bit.
A useful term from economics is "opportunity cost." If you take a pitcher at #2 in the first round and he blows out his arm the opportunity cost (what you have forsaken to take him) is very high. If you take one at #28 it is not nearly as high. And as we see from my list often the guys who go on to have the best pitching career are the ones who are the taken after quite a few other pitchers are taken.
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Players in the current Fangraphs top 132 prospects drafted in rounds 2 or 3 at or after pick 60, drafted from 2014-2017:
#9 Bo Bichette (drafted 2nd rd, pick 66)
#21 Dustin May (drafted 3rd rd, pick 101)
#25 Brent Honeywell rd 2, 72
#27 Jesus Luzardo rd 3 94th
35 Sean Murphy rd 3 83rd
37 Mitch Keller rd 2, 64th
46 Brandon Lowe rd 3, 87th
48 Peter Alonso rd 2, 64th
77 Daulton Varsho rd 2, 68th
87 Jon Duplantier rd 3, 89th
91 Brandon Marsh rd 2, 60th
104 Isan Diaz rd 2, 70th
111 Nick Solak rd 2, 62
112 Garrett Hampson rd 3, 81
117 Alex Verdugo rd 2, 62
128 Jahmai Jones rd 2, 70
So a little over 10% of the top 130 prospects come from picks 60-100 during that time frame.
Then you have guys like Harrison Bader (3rd, 100), AJ Minter (2nd, 75th), Austin Hays (3rd, 91st) who have already made the majors and were drafted during that stretch. I'm sure I've missed a few current MLB players with my quick search, but you can see it's well worth having those 2nd and 3rd round picks if you draft well.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Still don’t get the bishop hype. Bad arm. One year pop up. Not doing as well vs better competition. College of with Pache and waters around.
I’m in for multiple hs kids.
I’m in for multiple hs kids.
Which certainly shows that there's plenty of talent to be had in that range (as you point out) if you draft well. The part that list leaves off is that many of those guys DIDN'T come cheaply - below the SLOT range we're talking about (if they were to spend big on the first two picks).
Verdugo - $914,600 (slot - HS)
Diaz - $750,000 (under slot - HS)
Keller - $1,000,000 ($113,200 over slot - HS)
Honeywell - $800,000 ($16,000 over slot - college player)
Jones - $1,100,000 ($220,500 over slot - HS)
Lowe - $676,900 (under slot - college player)
Marsh - $1,073,300 (slot - HS)
Alonso - $909,200 (under slot - college player)
Bichette - $1,100,000 ($121,400 over slot - HS)
Murphy - $753,100 (slot - college player)
Duplantier - $686,600 (slot - college player)
Hays - $665,800 (slot - college player)
Luzardo - $1,400,000 ($764,200 over slot - HS)
May - $997,500 ($406,700 over slot - HS)
Varsho - $880,100 (slot - college player)
While there is talent there, many of those guys you mention weren't exactly "steals" - they were either college players lacking tons of leverage or HS kids that required pretty substantial over slot bonuses to get them to sign.
not really sure what your point is. the 60th pick is probably essential to a strategy like 2016.
Not sure why it matters if they are steals, we are keeping the 2nd pick because we want the player most likely, not because of some financial flexibility. Teams generally sign seniors in the 4th-10th rounds to have extra money for their 1st and 2nd round picks, they don't really underslot 2nd round picks to save money for 1st round picks.
And literally every player on my list except for Luzardo was signed for less than our 2nd round slot money, so I'm not sure what your point is as far as the money angle goes, we can easily sign that caliber of player without impacting our signing of our first round picks.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
It's definitely one of the things that keeps me here.
The slot values change every year, so comparing the 60th pick's slot value in 2014 vs. what that number will be in 2019 is a bit useless. Slot value for the 60th pick in 2014 was $943,200, in 2019 it's $1,157,400 - $214,200 higher. In 2014, the money we've got for this year would've been slot value for #50.
Matt mentioned the thought of punting at #60 as a way to spend big on the first two picks. I don't disagree that in this particular draft that would be a bad idea since it looks pretty thin. The point was that if you're going to punt at #60 and draft two over slot HS kids at #9 and #21 and get the best player you can get on the cheap at #60, it might've made as much sense to give up that pick to sign Kimbrel (given the state of our pen), still draft the 2 over slot HS kids to help replenish the lower minors, and just go cheap in Rounds 4-10 just like last year when we didn't have a 3rd Round pick. Maybe you get lucky and find a diamond in the rough RP, 4th/5th OF, or utility guy with one of those college kids who doesn't have any leverage (Higginbotham/Kingham/Justin Dean/etc.).
That's what scouts are paid for.
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i'm not sure why this is so hard to understand. they likely need $1.157M if they want to employ the strategy of going over-slot on one of the first two picks. signing kimbrel eliminates that money.
From yesterday - "With all picks - $11,532,200. Take away the slot value at 60 and you'd still have $10,374,800. That would only drop them from having the sixth-most to spend to having the eighth-most to spend. Pretty sure it wouldn't have hurt terribly - IF the plan was to go with HS kids with the first two picks."
If you gave up the slot value for #60 and only had $10,374,800, that would still be plenty enough to sign picks 4-10 for $300,000 each ($2,100,000) while leaving you enough to spend $4,000,000 each on #9 and #21. Why is that so hard to understand?
yes, and it's silly to think that extra money won't make a difference. it very very obviously does. remember a few years ago when, like, $300k made a big difference to the Braves' plan and they yanked a contract offer because of it? what makes you think over a million dollars won't?
Squire
12:05 What's the best strategy for a team like the Phillies who pick mid-first round and have no 2nd round pick? Is it possible to cut a below slot deal in the mid-first round? Is it worth it when you trying to push money out all the way to the 91st pick?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06 Not if you're targetting high-profile players. If you want to spread saving around to a lot of 250-600k high schoolers (which there's an unusually large amount of this year), then okay.
"but the 2nd round money won't really matter"
12:05 What's the best strategy for a team like the Phillies who pick mid-first round and have no 2nd round pick? Is it possible to cut a below slot deal in the mid-first round? Is it worth it when you trying to push money out all the way to the 91st pick?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:06 Not if you're targetting high-profile players. If you want to spread saving around to a lot of 250-600k high schoolers (which there's an unusually large amount of this year), then okay.
"but the 2nd round money won't really matter"
