2019 MLB Draft Thread

It’s less about saying “target HS pitchers in X round” and more about properly weighing in the attrition rate of pitching while ranking prospects.

Anyone who has followed FGs prospect content can see how this trend is going and is valuing pitchers lower overall.
 
Just to add a little bit of data on the third round. This has been an unproductive round for us with the notable exception of Kimbrel (college pitcher).

We've taken HS pitchers in the third round with half of our picks since 2013 without much to show for: Tarnok (2017), Guardado (2015), Salazar (2013). I would favor a move away from them toward HS hitters and college pitchers.
 
Enscheff said:
It’s less about saying “target HS pitchers in X round” and more about properly weighing in the attrition rate of pitching while ranking prospects.

Anyone who has followed FGs prospect content can see how this trend is going and is valuing pitchers lower overall.
Click to expand...

I think the two are related. One way of implementing a proper weighting that accounts for the bust rate of pitchers is to reduce their percentage on your draft board. The right way to do this should obviously be informed by an analysis of the data and I'm pretty sure the results will vary by different rounds of the draft.

I find it very interesting that in their most recent mock draft Fangraphs has only 8 pitchers taken among the first 30. They may have overdone it a little, but that's generally speaking the way to account for the bust rate of pitchers. You have just the elite ones (with upside to compensate for the bust rate) in the first round. And at the very top end of the draft (say the first five picks each year) I think going forward we'll see few pitchers taken.
 
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nsacpi said:
Just to add a little bit of data on the third round. This has been an unproductive round for us with the notable exception of Kimbrel (college pitcher).

We've taken HS pitchers in the third round with half of our picks since 2013 without much to show for: Tarnok (2017), Guardado (2015), Salazar (2013). I would favor a move away from them toward HS hitters and college pitchers.
Click to expand...


I'd want to see what each category did across MLB as a group over time rather than just what happened with the Braves.

At some point, the college reps are just going to reveal a lack of ceiling and it might be better to take a shot at developing a younger player with some possible remaining projection.

I don't know where that line is as far as Draft round.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'd want to see what each category did across MLB as a group over time rather than just what happened with the Braves.

At some point, the college reps are just going to reveal a lack of ceiling and it might be better to take a shot at developing a younger player with some possible remaining projection.

I don't know where that line is as far as Draft round.
Click to expand...


The most notable 3rd round picks in the 2006-2010 period:

Britton (2006) HS pitcher
Duffy (2007) HS pitcher
Souza (2007) HS hitter
Lucroy (2007) C hitter
Dietrich (2007) HS hitter
Mercer (2008) C hitter
Espinosa (2008) C hitter
Kimbrel (2008) C pitcher
Seager (2009) C hitter
Wil Myers (2009) HS hitter
Realmuto (2010) HS hitter

Adjusted by # of picks, HS hitters have given the best yield in both the second and third rounds.
 
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I’m guessing teams in the top 10 are heavily represented at Cal-Arizona State this weekend. Andrew Vaughn had a huge night in the opener, Hunter Bishop went 1-5 with a double and three Ks.
 
thethe said:
Power tool can develop. Can't say the same so much for the 'bat' skills.
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i'm not talking in terms of absolutes...but as a general observation power tool is very unpredictable in the sense that what power at a lower level is only weakly correlated to how it translates at a higher level...the hit tool however tends to have a much higher correlation from one level to the next...you have a better idea of what you are getting

i'd rather bet on a kid with a good hit tool developing power than a kid with lots of power but lots of swing and miss learning how to hit...as a general proposition...it is always possible to point to exceptions
 
thethe said:
Power tool can develop. Can't say the same so much for the 'bat' skills.
Click to expand...

maybe i misunderstood your post or you misunderstood mine...but Bishop HAS the power tool already...at least as it manifests itself at the college level
 
It’s easy to see why some teams are not sold on Bishop. The arm is barely playable anywhere other than 1b, and there are concerns about the hit tool.

The best course of action may be to get 3 high risk 45s and see what happens.
 
Enscheff said:
It’s easy to see why some teams are not sold on Bishop. The arm is barely playable anywhere other than 1b, and there are concerns about the hit tool.

The best course of action may be to get 3 high risk 45s and see what happens.
Click to expand...
I'm in this camp. I like Rutledge enough from the JUCO arms...but I like Daniel Espino so what do I know?
 
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