2019 MLB Draft Thread

this draft seems weird at best...there doesn't seem to be much logic or strategy with the picks. doesn't seem like they needed to keep pick 60 with this "strategy." doesn't appear to be much - any? - real upside with a single one of the players. we shall see. maybe they know something we don't. hopefully.
 
Tapate50 said:
I read that Shewmake has speed.

And Hursh had the best pitches in that draft in his sinker
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Shewmake has adequate speed. He's fast enough to take an extra base or cover ground in the OF. It's not good enough to be a weapon though.

OF might be his best chance of sticking and if you don't have any power, you generally need excellent speed to justify starting.

One best case scenario for Shewmake is becoming a Markakis like OF. Good hit tool and doing a lot of things well.
 
Jaw said:
My general feeling is that you shouldn't take a hitter who can't hit, or a pitcher that doesn't have a great pitch. I'm sceptical about the catcher, but the other two seem to have at least decent hit ratings. Maybe the Braves genuinely believe they got the three best players they could, but there were certainly comparable players with significantly better hit ratings available at each of the three spots.

It really feels like they placed a priority on short development time and high floor. Given our MLB roster and minor league system, I can't understand that.
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We share the same puzzlement. We pretty much have zip below Mississippi in terms of high ceiling guys and I would say that neither Shewmake or Philip look to have high ceilings. I have my doubts about Langeliers' offensive ceiling, but as a strong defensive catcher who should hit some, the case can be made, perhaps strongly, that overall ceiling doesn't really matter for him.

I guess I'm with Deester11 in that up to this point, it doesn't appear the team has maximized its draft capital. Long way to go so I'm reluctant to do a total rip on the organization, but I really have to see things unfold differently to get excited.
 
The obvious takeaway is hoping we're saving money for the coming rounds. But if that's the case, why not just take the overslot guy at 60?
 
nsacpi said:
it does take a while before a draft can be fairly evaluated...I remember the Soroka and Riley picks being roundly panned...everyone loved the Braxton Davidson pick
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In the draft where Soroka and Riley were selected, the pick I didn't like was Allard. One of the words that is a big red flag for me is "pitchability," especially for a high school guy (see Jamie Arnold). When I heard that about him and knew about the back injury, I thought "WTF are we doing here?" As per Soroka and Riley, they were both high school guys (and Riley was always seen to have a plus-power tool), so that there would be time to hone their strengths. It's also important to remember that although it isn't as important as it used to be due to the summer showcase circuit for high school players, Soroka was a Northern player with a lot of room for growth. Granted, it was difficult to judge the ceiling on those two, making the picks somewhat risky, but with as many picks as they had that year, I was fine with the strategy.

Where I was dead wrong on that draft was with the pick of Lucas Herbert. I was one of the few on the board that liked the pick, but he just never hit.

Of course, I thought Jacob Turner and Shelby Miller would both be better than Mike Minor. Shows what I know.
 
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Hey, the best possible outcome is that we are all wrong. I feel worse about Brown than I do the players.

I may have not liked some of Bridges picks, but he could talk about them and make me feel better.

Maybe Brown is just horrible on camera, but my goodness.
 
CJ9 said:
The obvious takeaway is hoping we're saving money for the coming rounds. But if that's the case, why not just take the overslot guy at 60?
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After round 10 you don’t lose slot money. They are going to draft cheap the next 8 rounds and then snag 1-2 guy in round 10 or later that won’t sign. That way they can say they had a strategy. But for me I would have rather taken the guys you wanted at 9and 21 and if they didn’t sign try again next year. Drafting garbage at 21 and 60 is weak. It screams unpreparedness and makes me mad that we neglected QO players that could have helped us all year. And despite some trying to spin 21 and 60 in to positive, we all know it is crap. Big pile of smelly, decomposing, maggot infested crap.
 
A couple of our better prospects from recent drafts were taken in relatively late rounds and signed above slot deals.

In 2016 it was Bryse Wilson taken in the fourth round and signing for 1.2M

In 2018 it was Victor Vodnik taken in the 14th round and signing for 200K.

If we can pick off one or two like that it can make up, partly make up, for the disappointment of the first day.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
After round 10 you don’t lose slot money. They are going to draft cheap the next 8 rounds and then snag 1-2 guy in round 10 or later that won’t sign. That way they can say they had a strategy. But for me I would have rather taken the guys you wanted at 9and 21 and if they didn’t sign try again next year. Drafting garbage at 21 and 60 is weak. It screams unpreparedness and makes me mad that we neglected QO players that could have helped us all year. And despite some trying to spin 21 and 60 in to positive, we all know it is crap. Big pile of smelly, decomposing, maggot infested crap.
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I think they were prepared. I just think it's a matter of differing tastes and philosophies. It's clearly a departure from the Clark/Bridges approach.
 
Think about where the Braves are as an organization, stacked with under control hitters at the ML level for the next 5-7 years with 2 high end OF 1-2 years away and a catcher 2-3 years away. After that, not much on the offense side. But hey, you could argue you don't need much more soon just at some point around the time 4-5 years from now.

So, looking at that, if you're going to take bats in the draft, why not go for ceiling that, even if it takes 5 years to fully develop, will actually mean something if/when it arrives?

They're going to pay somewhere close to $5M for Langeliers. In all likelihood, his best hope is to hopefully one day become Tyler Flowers, the same Tyler Flowers who can be had year after year for $4M.

They're going to spend close to $3M on Shewmake a guy who is probably a fungible utility infielder - not a high end utility infielder. Teams hire those guys at the ML level for $1M per year all the time.

Phillips is like a less well known, more risky version of Shewmake.

I really believe that I could have done better with a draft board, a blindfold and a donkey's tail.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Think about where the Braves are as an organization, stacked with under control hitters at the ML level for the next 5-7 years with 2 high end OF 1-2 years away and a catcher 2-3 years away. After that, not much on the offense side. But hey, you could argue you don't need much more soon just at some point around the time 4-5 years from now.

So, looking at that, if you're going to take bats in the draft, why not go for ceiling that, even if it takes 5 years to fully develop, will actually mean something if/when it arrives?

They're going to pay somewhere close to $5M for Langeliers. In all likelihood, his best hope is to hopefully one day become Tyler Flowers, the same Tyler Flowers who can be had year after year for $4M.

They're going to spend close to $3M on Shewmake a guy who is probably a fungible utility infielder - not a high end utility infielder. Teams hire those guys at the ML level for $1M per year all the time.

Phillips is like a less well known, more risky version of Shewmake.

I really believe that I could have done better with a draft board, a blindfold and a donkey's tail.
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The major point of my critique as well. I can give a pass on the Langeliers pick, but all these guys will be with the Fire Frogs next year and there's nothing below them in the system. Of course, we still have 38 rounds to go.
 
Finally getting a chance to sit at a keyboard so here's my full take on the first 3 picks:

Langeliers
The defense is legit. His pop times and arm strength are impressive. He blocks well. And he even gets lauded for pitch framing. He could probably stick as a MLB backup catcher today. However, you don't draft guys in the top 10 to be backup catchers. The bat will determine how far he goes. If he's just average with a bat, the defense will carry him to being a starter. But any hiccup with development at the plate and he's likely never more than a backup.

My biggest reservation here is that he could suddenly have a huge chunk of value stolen if MLB goes to robo umps as his pitch framing will be suddenly worthless.

Comp: Jorge Alfaro. Alfaro is a starting quality catcher based on defense and hitting enough. I think that's what we get from Langeliers. I think Langeliers is a more complete hitter than Alfaro, but I don't know if he has Alfaro's power. Ultimately a defense first, 3 WAR catcher sounds about right.


Shewmake:
This pick still baffles me. The problem is that he's a guy without a position. He's not got a great arm and there's already a good bit of doubt he sticks at SS because of that. It also makes 3B difficult. Some think he'll move to second but he's 6-4. I don't know if I've ever seen a 2B that tall. If he adds any bulk he wont be able to stick in the middle IF.

That leaves the OF (I'm discounting 1B and C). He's not got elite speed so he wont fit the speedy, high OBP OF mold. That means his power is going to have to develop a good bit. Some look at his scrawny 6-4 frame and think he'll develop power as he fills out but his swing isn't really conducive to power. He's a line drive hitter with a flat swing who uses great bat control to put the ball in play consistently. Expecting him to develop into a 20+ HR hitter might be asking too much and tinkering with his swing to try to get more power out of him might destroy his hit tool (his one plus tool).

Comp: Nick Markakis. Not the Nick Markakis from early in his career, 2012 and on Markakis. A guy with an excellent hit tool who doesn't strike out much. Enough power to get 10-15 HRs. But mediocre OF defense lowers his WAR to around 2. I think this is a pretty high end outcome for Shewmake. He's got a very, very real chance of flaming out in the minors.



Philip:
This pick is baffling. He'd probably have been on the board two or three rounds later. This guy just doesn't do anything well enough to start. He's a good defensive SS but not whiz. He's not going to hit for much power so that wont carry him. His speed is okay but not elite and worse, he's not got great OBP skills so a top of the order hitter is out as well.

If you had to build a prototypical utility infielder, Philip is it. He could backup 3B, 2B, and SS but wont ever hit well enough or field well enough to make up for his weak hitting profile.

Comp: Wilmer Difo. Maybe a touch less speed than Difo with a touch better hit tool.


All in all a very underwhelming first day. I ranked the first round a D. With the pick of Philip, the first day might have dropped to an F. It's a D- at best.
 
TheBravos said:
Hey, the best possible outcome is that we are all wrong. I feel worse about Brown than I do the players.

I may have not liked some of Bridges picks, but he could talk about them and make me feel better.

Maybe Brown is just horrible on camera, but my goodness.
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Seriously. He looked like a guy who was in over his head and knows it. He seemed okay with the Langeliers pick but he looked shell shocked talking about Shewmake and honestly looked like he didn't believe anything he was saying. Trying to sell to the press that Shewmake was a good choice when he knew better.

I got the feeling that things might have gone sideways in the war room and he had no clue how to get them back on track.
 
50PoundHead said:
The major point of my critique as well. I can give a pass on the Langeliers pick, but all these guys will be with the Fire Frogs next year and there's nothing below them in the system. Of course, we still have 38 rounds to go.
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It does seem we are set up to face a situation where the farm system will be below average, possibly well below average, 2-3 years from now. I don't think it necessarily spells the window closing because the Albies and Acuna contracts are such great deals and come close to guaranteeing a 10-year window. It might mean the farm won't be contributing much during the back half of that window.
 
nsacpi said:
Looking at who was available and going by the highest ceiling rule I would have gone Rutledge and Malone. People would have probably complained about that.

I am concerned they seem to have deemphasized ceiling in making their picks. It seems to be a good rule to follow in the first round.
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I would have gone Carroll and Malone/Espinosa. A good mix of ceiling and floor. And I would have waited on Kyle McCann for a catcher (who is still available).

But I'm not gonna blast the FO for these picks. We know so little about them. Shewmake looks to have room to add muscle and may be some power. At that point, may be he would project as a Nick Markakis, Ian Desmond, or Neil Walker type of player.... Or, dare I say, a Kelly Johnson clone.
 
I’m really just a bigger fan of high ceiling prep players early in the draft, so I didn’t care for what we did last night. The idea that the FO wasn't prepared seems hilarious, though. These guys spend the whole year working on a draft plan, there’s no way they just forgot to do it.
 
mqt said:
I’m really just a bigger fan of high ceiling prep players early in the draft, so I didn’t care for what we did last night. The idea that the FO wasn't prepared seems hilarious, though. These guys spend the whole year working on a draft plan, there’s no way they just forgot to do it.
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I agree they were prepared for this, but Brown was hired in the middle of January. He didn't have the full cycle that other scouting directors had.

And please don't read that as an excuse for him at all because it isn't. I'm just desperately trying to figure out how we could do this poorly, and it's all I've got right now. Ha.
 
mqt said:
I’m really just a bigger fan of high ceiling prep players early in the draft, so I didn’t care for what we did last night. The idea that the FO wasn't prepared seems hilarious, though. These guys spend the whole year working on a draft plan, there’s no way they just forgot to do it.
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Yeah. I think they executed a plan. But it also seems they attempted to invent a better mousetrap and ignored some rules of thumb that seem to work pretty well when it comes to drafting. It comes down to whether Langeliers and Shewmake end up being the hitting equivalent of Gilmartin or the hitting equivalent of Mike Minor. If the latter, we will eventually learn to love this draft.
 
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