Shane Greene to Atl being reported

CrazyTrain said:
I know this is a huge upgrade for the pen as a whole, but is this guy really that much better than Jackson? Everything but ERA is very similar between the two, only Greene has a .178 BABIP and Jackson has a .352.
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As long as he has better luck, yes. haha
 
nsacpi said:
To be fair, I value both Wentz and Demeritte a little higher than the consensus. But a straight 45 is an overpay for Greene, who has put up WAR of 0.8 in 2017, -0.1 in 2018 and 0.8 so far this year. Given that I would project 0.5 WAR the rest of this year and 1.0 next year. He is making 4M this year and will probably make 6M next. I'm not gonna give him bonus points for the shiny 2019 ERA.
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So, say 1.5 WAR the rest of this year plus next; at ~$7.5-million salary, that’d be SV of $6m if you say $9m/WAR, or SV of $4.5m if you say $8m/WAR. At 45 FV, Wentz is estimated at $3m FV; toss in Demeritte, and it seems pretty fair—a “win”, even, if you factor Contenders’ Premium.
 
CrazyTrain said:
I know this is a huge upgrade for the pen as a whole, but is this guy really that much better than Jackson? Everything but ERA is very similar between the two, only Greene has a .178 BABIP and Jackson has a .352.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Greene was the least effective of the 3 guys we acquired. We had to pay more because he has an extra year of control, has been closing and has a shiny ERA this year. But my a priori is Miller should close (assuming he is healthy).
 
nsacpi said:
I wouldn't be surprised if Greene was the least effective of the 3 guys we acquired. We had to pay more because he has an extra year of control, has been closing and has a shiny ERA this year. But my a priori is Miller should close (assuming he is healthy).
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Miller? We got another person?
 
CrazyTrain said:
I know this is a huge upgrade for the pen as a whole, but is this guy really that much better than Jackson? Everything but ERA is very similar between the two, only Greene has a .178 BABIP and Jackson has a .352.
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No he's not. The Braves weren't going to acquire a RP that was a huge upgrade over Jackson? That guy just wasn't out there. These moves were about making the pen a lot deeper.
 
nsacpi said:
I wouldn't be surprised if Greene was the least effective of the 3 guys we acquired. We had to pay more because he has an extra year of control, has been closing and has a shiny ERA this year. But my a priori is Miller should close (assuming he is healthy).
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Nonetheless, all three plus Jackson are much better than just Jackson.
 
jpx7 said:
So, say 1.5 WAR the rest of this year plus next; at ~$7.5-million salary, that’d be SV of $6m if you say $9m/WAR, or SV of $4.5m if you say $8m/WAR. At 45 FV, Wentz is estimated at $3m FV; toss in Demeritte, and it seems pretty fair—a “win”, even, if you factor Contenders’ Premium.
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Yeah I'd say it's pretty even. Not an overpay at all. AA doesn't overpay.
 
Hudson2 said:
Maybe Carp is Shane Greene.. hmmmmm
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giphy.gif
 
jpx7 said:
So, say 1.5 WAR the rest of this year plus next; at ~$7.5-million salary, that’d be SV of $6m if you say $9m/WAR, or SV of $4.5m if you say $8m/WAR. At 45 FV, Wentz is estimated at $3m FV; toss in Demeritte, and it seems pretty fair—a “win”, even, if you factor Contenders’ Premium.
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For me Wentz is more of a 45+. Applying contender's premium to an expected .5 WAR this year doesn't move the needle much. Even the contender's premium, Greene's expected surplus value is not quite 1 WAR.
 
nsacpi said:
For me Wentz is more of a 45+. Applying contender's premium to an expected .5 WAR this year doesn't move the needle much. Even the contender's premium, Greene's expected surplus value is not quite 1 WAR.
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Yea, I just don’t see Wentz as a 45+, but even still it seems like a pretty even deal to me.
 
nsacpi said:
For me Wentz is more of a 45+. Applying contender's premium to an expected .5 WAR this year doesn't move the needle much. Even the contender's premium, Greene's expected surplus value is not quite 1 WAR.
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Even at 45+ that would be 6 million in value. I don't see how this is an overpay.
 
Wentz is a back end starter or possibly good reliever. I would be far more upset if we were giving up Cruz, Ynoa, or Muller. Wentz doesnt have the upside of a lot of our other prospects. Good luck with Wentz for 200 innings a year. He isnt going to hold up for that.
 
Trade announced by the club with just Wentz and TD. I can’t seem to remember, but I don’t recall teams leaving out a PBTNL in the releases traditionally.
 
mqt said:
Trade announced by the club with just Wentz and TD. I can’t seem to remember, but I don’t recall teams leaving out a PBTNL in the releases traditionally.
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Good—I hope that’s the case. As it is, Kiley called the return “a little light” on Detroit’s end, which seems to boost the notion that this was a fair-value deal.
 
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CyYoung31 said:
NOT TRAVIS DEMERITTE
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Albies can finally rest easy. For the record, I liked Demeritte, but he's back to his striking out 11 times in 10 ABs rate. Wentz has some promise, but he fell behind Muller this year. I wonder if Demeritte joins the Tigers' big league team.
 
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