Minors 8-18-19
- Thread starter OcalaBrave
- Start date
IslandBrave
Mashin' to Mississippi
Waters 3-4 today. 6 multi hit games in first 12 inAAA
next Ortega?
Acuna
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
Unsustainable luck driven BABIP at 4 minor league levels now.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
Levity. Levity was the point of the sarcasm. I guess I don't take whatever point system we have here as seriously as some others do.
I do not expect him to have an MLB record career BABIP. I also don't think it's luck. I think it's a kid who hits the ball hard when he makes contact, and will always have a high BABIP. And he misses the ball too much.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
Do you think we're actually going to get draft picks here? If not, what's the point of the sarcasm?
Once again, levity.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The point to make about Waters is that he has been lucky and good. The hard part is parsing how much is luck and how much is skill that can eventually translate at the major league level.
Here's an article that breaks down the BABIP numbers of another young player who has been both lucky and good this year (at the major league level in his case).
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bryan-reynolds-is-lucky-and-good/
Here's an article that breaks down the BABIP numbers of another young player who has been both lucky and good this year (at the major league level in his case).
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bryan-reynolds-is-lucky-and-good/
msstate7
Well-known member
Is there any correlation to babip and spray charts? Here's waters' spray charts for A, A+, AA, and AAA:
(Left, center, right)
A = 43.6, 21.4, 35.0
A+ = 39.6, 23.1, 37.4
AA = 43.2, 22.3, 34.6
AAA = 46.4, 21.4, 32.1
He is a switch though, so this could just be him pulling the hell out of everything on that side. Just looking at a stat line though, it seems impressive
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Having a low pull rate helps produce a higher BABIP.
Are you sure you have the data in your post labelled correctly. The 46.4 in AAA is his pull rate according to Fangraphs. Which is not the same as % hit to left since he is a switch hitter.
msstate7
Well-known member
Stop listening to me! I'm a dope! Yes, you're correct. This actually is what I was hoping for though... using all fields
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Its worth comparing Waters with Bryan Reynolds. Both are switch hitters.
Looking at their AA stats: Waters had a pull rate in AA this year of 43.2%. Reynolds was at 45.1%.
What is exceptional about Reynolds though is how the pull rate has dropped to 34.8% in the majors this year.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Waters is pretty young and hasn't really been challenged a great deal.
But I think he has the lowest minors walk rate of any the Braves position prospects and his K rate is higher than everyone except Riley.
If that doesn't change, the 100 point drop in BABIP is going to do really bad things to his stat line.
not to say he can't come up and have a good start like they virtually all have had. It's just fairly certain he's going to have an ugly struggle at some point and it's very possible he starts out that way.
But I think he has the lowest minors walk rate of any the Braves position prospects and his K rate is higher than everyone except Riley.
If that doesn't change, the 100 point drop in BABIP is going to do really bad things to his stat line.
not to say he can't come up and have a good start like they virtually all have had. It's just fairly certain he's going to have an ugly struggle at some point and it's very possible he starts out that way.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The K rate is definitely problematic. I'd like him to have 400 PAs in AAA with a K rate of under 25% before calling him up.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
The problem there is that Reynolds also has pretty good K and BB rates. Waters K rate is well above 30 and his BB rate is around 4-5... when you add that to an insane BABIP, it’s not going to be pretty in the majors
msstate7
Well-known member
Probably at least worth mentioning that Reynolds started his pro career at like the same age waters is right now
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The AAA K rate is from a pretty small sample. Look at his AA numbers.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Yeah the mid 20s are still concerning with his walk rate. Hopefully when things get harder for him he starts to adjust. We won’t know until he gets challenged. Right now he probably has the mind set of hitting everything since it’s easy for him at the moment. Why walk when it’s easy?