Official Offseason Thread

Carp said:
I don't think plan worked as well as they thought it would. They weren't really drawing new fans and they were pissing off the fans that they did have.

Speaking of which, we have out first ejection, courtesy of Robo-Ump. Apparently this a strike now:



Robo-Ump is still the stupiddest idea in the history of baseball. Why even have the home plate umpire stand behind the catcher? His job is useless until someone is on base, unless you count foul tips. Also, might as well have the catcher stand up and let the pitcher throw where he wants when no one is on base. There really isn't a use for him other than to throw the ball back to the pitcher.
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I think it's funny that it's Heyward's younger brother here. I like the robo ump personally once it's prone to zero errors. The strikezone may change but it will at least be consistent and not change from umpire to umpire or batter to batter.
 
I'm not sure that the Hechavarria ball leaves the yard if Busch Stadium's warning track is 5 feet long because of the number that I saw from STL's "analytics" and because the exit velocity wasn't all that high, but it gets much closer that it did and based off knowing this, the announcer going into his home run call not knowing about them changing the ball back (because...sure) now doesn't look bad.

But there are several other balls that leave with the regular season ball now that we know that they decided to change for the postseason. Acuna's 7th inning ball in game 1, I'm a lot more certain that's a homer because of the right field short porch. It's close enough that he likely should have run, but its not as bad. In game 3 and 4, the Braves hit a bunch of balls that I'm pretty sure leave in the regular season. At least 3-4 off Wainwright and a couple with Mikolas pitching in relief.

And as everyone else said, this looks REALLY bad. You have teams that played in a certain way and leaned on the home run ball, and you took that ball away and catered to teams that lean more on pitching and just contact (Nationals were both). What a surprise, change the ball and 2 of the best home run teams in the NL get eliminated!
 
Carp said:
I don't think plan worked as well as they thought it would. They weren't really drawing new fans and they were pissing off the fans that they did have.

Speaking of which, we have out first ejection, courtesy of Robo-Ump. Apparently this a strike now:



Robo-Ump is still the stupiddest idea in the history of baseball. Why even have the home plate umpire stand behind the catcher? His job is useless until someone is on base, unless you count foul tips. Also, might as well have the catcher stand up and let the pitcher throw where he wants when no one is on base. There really isn't a use for him other than to throw the ball back to the pitcher.
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Umm, the ump is there specifically to catch blatant malfunctions like this.

So once again the human ump failed to do his job correctly, while the robo ump is likely correct 99.8% of the time.
 
To be effective, a robo ump doesn't have to be perfect, it just has to be better than humans, which isn't difficult at all with today's technology. With an ump behind the plate to catch blatant malfunctions, like Scheff said, then it should be a much better system. But it still won't be perfect.
 
Was running some numbers though baseball trade values and this came together as an even proposal. Melancon AJax and 6mil to the Indians for Kluber. Seems like it could make sense for both sides to me.
 
Slippyjms said:
Was running some numbers though baseball trade values and this came together as an even proposal. Melancon AJax and 6mil to the Indians for Kluber. Seems like it could make sense for both sides to me.
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Kluber's value is down but it would still cost alot more than that to get Kluber.
 
After seeing the teams with the 2 best pitching staffs in baseball make the WS I could see a lot of teams way overpaying for Cole this offseason.
 
Slippyjms said:
Was running some numbers though baseball trade values and this came together as an even proposal. Melancon AJax and 6mil to the Indians for Kluber. Seems like it could make sense for both sides to me.
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I mentioned Folty, Greene, and Wright for Kluber and Hand.
 
We went over this last year when the Indians were supposedly shopping Kluber. They ultimately held onto him and tried to compete.

And now folks think they are going to sell low on him after a disappointing season?
 
Slippyjms said:
I’m not so sure. It looks like he only has around 2.7 mil in surplus value.
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Um What?

Kluber has more like 25-30 million in surplus value conservatively (assuming 6 WAR total over the next 2 years). The Indians probably still value him as a 5 win pitcher, so they probably see his surplus value in the 60-70 million range.
 
It was my understanding that next year is his final year and his price tag would be 17.5 mil. That 2.7 mil would be valuing him next year at about 2.5 fWAR (8 mil per fWAR). I know they were trying to shed payroll.
 
Slippyjms said:
It was my understanding that next year is his final year and his price tag would be 17.5 mil. That 2.7 mil would be valuing him next year at about 2.5 fWAR (8 mil per fWAR). I know they were trying to shed payroll.
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He has 2 years remaining, both options, which 2020 has already been picked up. 2.5 WAR is a very conservative estimate for a guy that has averaged 6 fWAR between 2014 and 2018. I know he's coming off of injury and he has clearly entered the decline phase of his career, but I would still expect conservatively a 3-4 fWAR for 2020 and 2-3 fWAR in 2021, for a total of 6-7 WAR and a surplus value in the 25-30 million range. But it's certainly possible he could bounce back to his 2018 level, which would put his surplus value in the 50-60 million range (likely where Cleveland values him at). Also if you only expect Kluber to produce 2.5 WAR, then he probably isn't worth trading for considering his contract.

Even still, the average price per WAR is closer to 10 million than 8 million I believe. So in your scenario, he likely has roughly 10-15 million in surplus value, rather than 2.7 million.
 
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Slippyjms said:
Was running some numbers though baseball trade values and this came together as an even proposal. Melancon AJax and 6mil to the Indians for Kluber. Seems like it could make sense for both sides to me.
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the indians would laugh and hang up. that's not even close to what it would take.
 
Carp said:
He has 2 years remaining, both options, which 2020 has already been picked up. 2.5 WAR is a very conservative estimate for a guy that has averaged 6 fWAR between 2014 and 2018. I know he's coming off of injury and he has clearly entered the decline phase of his career, but I would still expect conservatively a 3-4 fWAR for 2020 and 2-3 fWAR in 2021, for a total of 6-7 WAR and a surplus value in the 25-30 million range. But it's certainly possible he could bounce back to his 2018 level, which would put his surplus value in the 50-60 million range (likely where Cleveland values him at). Also if you only expect Kluber to produce 2.5 WAR, then he probably isn't worth trading for considering his contract.

Even still, the average price per WAR is closer to 10 million than 8 million I believe. So in your scenario, he likely has roughly 10-15 million in surplus value, rather than 2.7 million.
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Your analysis is pretty spot on.

Kluber was a consistent 5-7 win guy the last 5 seasons, and had a disaster 2019 after a line drive broke his arm, and he strained his abdomen while rehabbing.

While Kluber is almost certainly in his decline phase, his injuries weren't arm related (meaning from throwing a baseball), and he is still likely a good pitcher. No team is going to pay retail to acquire a guy coming back from injury, and the Indians would be foolish to sell low on him.

Selling low on Kluber would be about as dumb as selling low on Inciarte.
 
Enscheff said:
Your analysis is pretty spot on.

Kluber was a consistent 5-7 win guy the last 5 seasons, and had a disaster 2019 after a line drive broke his arm, and he strained his abdomen while rehabbing.

While Kluber is almost certainly in his decline phase, his injuries weren't arm related (meaning from throwing a baseball), and he is still likely a good pitcher. No team is going to pay retail to acquire a guy coming back from injury, and the Indians would be foolish to sell low on him.

Selling low on Kluber would be about as dumb as selling low on Inciarte.
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so inciarte for kluber?
 
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