jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
If the Big Offensive Upgrade is in OF (or even SS), I think a Shaw/Camargo platoon (with Riley starting in AAA) could be sufficient; if not, Anthopoulos really needs to lock down Donaldson.
Official Offseason Thread
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If the Big Offensive Upgrade is in OF (or even SS), I think a Shaw/Camargo platoon (with Riley starting in AAA) could be sufficient; if not, Anthopoulos really needs to lock down Donaldson.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Or shock us all with Rendon
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
I’m split on that. I think Langaliers is much more likely to reach his overall potential, but Contreras has the loftier potential with the bat. But ultimately I’d probably roll the dice on Contreras not reaching that potential if he was the centerpiece for an upgrade like Marte.
tululush
New member
How much time is left on Marte’s deal? Why not trade for Marte and then sign Donaldson? That’s my new dream for the offseason.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I'd be more on the Contreras train, but I read that his major offensive dive really showed up visually in scouting as well. I remember reading that scouts who saw him noted that he took a major step back with the bat for some reason. Just didn't look like the same guy. Maybe he was just focused on defense but its weird to just see a skill set deteriorate so quickly.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
The last time I went to a minor league game the pitchers threw breaking balls. If minor league pitchers know he can't hit a breaking ball they will throw plenty at him.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Yeah, pretty much every starter in AAA throws breaking balls... not quite sure what that post means lol
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
I think both moves do make sense. Marte has two years, both at slightly over $10 million; as a ~3.0 war player, he’d be a great OF upgrade in tandem with Donaldson. Sans Donaldson (or the Rendon pipedream), I think an OF (or SS) upgrade needs to be loftier (then try to eek 2.0-3.0 war out of a 3B platoon).
salmagundy
Boras' Client
According to MLBTR Marte has 2 years remaining of control. 2020 contract is for 11.5 mil, 2021 is for 12.5 mil for a total 24 mil still owed.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Goes back to thethe post about Riley not being able to learn breaking balls in AAA. Point is all minor league pitchers can throw a fast ball, They spend time in AAA learning/improving secondary pitches, i.e. breaking balls.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I mean I get it... but its just a bad take... plenty or pitchers throw good breaking balls in AAA
Riley will be a really good player within the next two years I think. The problem is....the Braves need a really good 3rd baseman right now. It’s a tough call. Donaldson at two years would have been a perfect stop gap.
I trust AA. He will not make any moves of emotion. He will strengthen that position o e way or another, but it won’t put our future up to do it.
I trust AA. He will not make any moves of emotion. He will strengthen that position o e way or another, but it won’t put our future up to do it.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
The Phillies are pursuing Rendon, Bob NightenLOL says.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
I think the people talking about a move that substantial are dreaming a little too much in regards to the outfield. First, those two would add around ~35 million in 2020 payroll, carrying our ultimate number well over 170 million dollars if we didn't shed any other contracts. Even if we shed Ender's contract, it'd still be well over 160 million. That ain't happening. It would take a few other contract moving moves in order for a Marte/Donaldson sequence to be even remotely feasible. Secondly, I think the front office would be fine rolling with Duvall, Ender, Markakis, and Acuna in the outfield in 2019. They wouldn't be ecstatic, but they wouldn't be suicidal either, especially if they effectively address 3rd base. But, I do think that they would like to add a right handed bat to the outfield as the weak side of a platoon with Nick and Ender, but an acquisition like that is going to be far less substantial than Marte. Third, if for some reason they decide to go after a big bat like Ozuna or Marte, it would almost HAVE to be in tandem with a lesser-than-Donaldson player at 3rd base. Ideally, in that situation we could work out a trade for a guy like Escobar whose extremely cheap contract MAY allow for a bat like that in the outfield. But, once again, I think that specific circumstance is fairly unlikely.
We are currently sitting on 138 million in payroll. The absolute ceiling I see for our OD payroll is about 155 million, and that seems very optimistic. So in the best possible scenario we have 17 million left to spend. Most, if not all, of that is going to have to be directed at either outfield or 3rd base, not both (unless the aforementioned miracle trade is in the works). And out of those two positions, 3rd base is easily our more pressing need. So I rank these remaining options in order of preference, not likelihood and assuming a 155 million dollar OD payroll:
1. Trade for Escobar (or similar player), Trade for Marte or sign Ozuna (may have to move contract in case of the latter)
2. Sign Donaldson, move contract for payroll, sign extremely cheap RHH outfielder or stand pat
3. Trade for Escobar (or similar player), Sign 2nd tier or reclamation outfielder (Puig, Garcia, Pillar, Santana, etc.)
4. Sign 2nd tier (or reclamation) 3rd baseman (Shaw, Gyorko, Cabrera), do same for Outfield (Puig, Garcia, Pillar, Santana), possibly leaves room for small bench signing as well.
There may be a few other options that people could work out, but these are the ones that I think are the most likely. If we don't have the payroll capacity to hit 155 million on OD, then things become far more complicated. In that case, these are the options I see:
1. Move a 10+ million dollar contract, then revert back to the 4 aforementioned options.
2. Trade for Escobar (or similar), stand pat in outfield, sign replacement level player, or somehow trade for cheap production.
3. Sign ~2 cheap utility options or reclamation projects to mix and match on offense and hope you can approximate last year's production through platooning (Zobrist, Cabrera, Sogard, Frazier, Flores, Miller, Walker, Gyorko, Shaw, Beckham, Santana, Pillar, Maybin, Puig) - Some of those options may be priced out, but most were <2 WAR last year.
The more I look at our current situation, the more I'm worried about effectively filling this offense out in 2020. AA is going to have to get pretty creative to figure it out.
Most AAA pitchers throw AAA quality breaking balls with AAA quality control...which is why they are in AAA.
I saw Riley as a complete guess hitter at the MLB level, and maybe that works better at AAA the more he saw the pitchers in the league. Getting better at guessing would explain his slow starts. It is then logical to assume he will improve at guessing at the MLB level as well. Or maybe his improvement was due to him legitimately getting better at identifying AAA breaking balls. I don't think any of us have the data required to make that determination.
However, the Braves do have that data. They have the MiLB statcast data to tell them how his plate discipline is progressing, and I'm going to to assume they will use that data to inform their decisions.
Giving up on Riley now would be just as dumb as handing him the 3B job on opening day.
I saw Riley as a complete guess hitter at the MLB level, and maybe that works better at AAA the more he saw the pitchers in the league. Getting better at guessing would explain his slow starts. It is then logical to assume he will improve at guessing at the MLB level as well. Or maybe his improvement was due to him legitimately getting better at identifying AAA breaking balls. I don't think any of us have the data required to make that determination.
However, the Braves do have that data. They have the MiLB statcast data to tell them how his plate discipline is progressing, and I'm going to to assume they will use that data to inform their decisions.
Giving up on Riley now would be just as dumb as handing him the 3B job on opening day.
Acuña’s Bat Flip
NL Rookie of the Year
That is blasphemy!
I'm actually ok trading any of our catching prospects for Marte. In fact, I prefer it. I consider a good hitting catcher to be a luxury, not a need. And with Marte being 30 already and only under 2 years of control, I would rather not give up someone like Waters for him. So if we could get him for either Contreras or Langeliers and a couple of 40/45 FV pitchers, sign me up.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I wouldn't give up Langeliers but I'd love to make a deal. That said, Marte isn't worth Waters and I doubt the Pirates would get anyone close to that for him.
They are already pushing towards luxury tax area after Wheeler. Rendon would surely push them over. Would be funny to see them spend 600+ million over the last 2 years and finish 3rd in the division again.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Their owner reportedly doesn't care if he has to pay the luxury tax percentage.