UNCBlue012
Well-known member
We're apparently doing our due diligence on Ryu as well.
Official Offseason Thread
- Thread starter Hudson2
- Start date
weso1
<B>Clique Leader</B>
I've come up with a 4 step plan that lands us Arenado, Ozuna and Lindor. Someone help me. Here's how it works.
Step 1: Braves have big payroll increase
Step 2: Arenado for Riley and cash
Step 3: Sign Ozuna
Step 4: Trade Waters (available in trade thanks to step 3), Swanson and arms for Lindor.
Step 1: Braves have big payroll increase
Step 2: Arenado for Riley and cash
Step 3: Sign Ozuna
Step 4: Trade Waters (available in trade thanks to step 3), Swanson and arms for Lindor.
tululush
New member
1. Where is all of this money coming from?
2. Umm unless we trade for Simba and let him play a 3rd/ss hybrid position, how are we going to have money to pay a 3rd baseman?
Sigh if we invest in more pitching then I’m afraid we’re going to have an anemic offense this year.
weso1
<B>Clique Leader</B>
I honestly don't think we're going to see a big payroll increase. What I think is happening is that we're going to get a moderate payroll increase but AA just simply targeted an area where he thought he could significantly add wins at reasonable market rates, because other teams had their eyes on a higher prize. And I think it's possible that Ryu is a guy that fits into that mold. Teams are turned off due to his injury history, but AA might be willing to take that risk while other teams are looking at sexier guys like Arenado and Donaldson. Makes more since than my previous post.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
I'm sure it's not news to AA if he's got offers going four years with AAV of $22.5-25M. I'm going to hope we match until we don't. Cautious optimism.
tululush
New member
Step 1 is going to have to be one hell of a step.
I believe we’re at 130 million salary right now. Let’s say we have 25 million in the kitty to sign JD (or someone else). That puts us at 155. And there may need to be some improvements elsewhere such as a corner outfielder and/or a 5th starter. I have no idea how much we can allocate for that, but for arguments sake let’s say 10 million. That puts us at 165, which I still find very hard to believe.
But assuming that is a number we can discuss for this argument we’re going to need a ton of cash from Colorado to make step 2 work. Then I suppose we could use the 25 million allotment from JD and give 20 of it to Ozuna. Depending on how much we’d get from Colorado + the 5 saved in paying Ozuna 20 million + the mythical **** ton we’d get from ownership I suppose we could pay Lindor.
Lol but that’s a lot of ifs and buts for any of that to work. Each of those steps is a pipe dream on its own much less all of those steps occurring together.
tululush
New member
I’d be shocked if we stay in on the bidding if it costs at least 4/100 to play. No way. I could see us upping our AAV and staying at 3 years, but no way we make a four year investment for over 100 million dollars in a 34 year old. AA just won’t do it.
It’s the smart play to pass for what’s likely to happen in years 3 and 4 of that deal, but it’s gonna suck to watch JD mash for someone else for the next two years. Especially if it’s for Philadelphia.
salmagundy
Boras' Client
tululush said---
"Lol but that’s a lot of ifs and buts for any of that to work."
Remember it is Christmas time.
"Lol but that’s a lot of ifs and buts for any of that to work."
Remember it is Christmas time.
We get the Smith pick back when Donaldson signs elsewhere. We would only lose the pick for Ozuna is the point.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
This sucks. I think AA misread the market and now stuck. I don’t think trading for CB or NA are real so we either over pay for josh or use internal for 3rd. And I am worried about a four year contract for Josh. So we are really looking like a lose lose situation here.
What is our fall back plan I wonder. Ozuna. I imagine his price is going up when JD signs.
What is our fall back plan I wonder. Ozuna. I imagine his price is going up when JD signs.
No, you don’t “get the pick back.” We would be awarded a pick, but not the same pick that we lost for signing Smith. We lost our 2nd rounder and will gain a pick after Comp Round B. So it is NOT the same pick being awarded back. That’s what you’re having a hard time understanding here. So we lose a good number of spots in the draft by signing Smith. It’s not a like for like thing.
And then should we sign Ozuna, we lose our 3rd rounder as well. So, say we sign Ozuna, we would go from having a pick every round (prior to the signing period opening) to now having a 1st rounder, a pick after Comp Round B, and a 4th rounder onward. Definitely not the same thing.
This a poor analysis of the situation.
We don't get that pick back at all. When we offered JD a QO, we essentially gained an extra pick (though not guranteed). When we signed Smith, we lost a guaranteed pick. We don't "get the pick back" if JD signs elsewhere. It's still a net loss of 1 pick. If we sign JD as well, that's a net loss of 2 picks.
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Southcack77
Well-known member
Freddie has flat said as much so that's the reason it is out there. It's pretty clear he considers himself the leader of the team and something of a successor to Chipper Jones and that he wants to stay. That doesn't mean he's going to let himself get lowballed, but I also don't think he's going to go out looking to make a market.
Whether it turns into a Glavine situation where the team just doesn't want to pay the bottom end of market value is the question. We can't know the answer to that one. I don't think that the team is a villain if it decides that doesn't make sense. But I think they will come to an agreement on an extension.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I hope we are at least submitting an offer and I hope its at least a respectable one. Lindor over Swanson is a huge upgrade, and then if we also upgrade one of OF or 3B with Bryant, JD, or Ozuna... we could be sitting pretty.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
Harry called Enscheff Nick. I was just trying to inject some levity before another grand pissing match started.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Option 1: Braves don't sign anyone with a QO and let Donaldson walk: Net Gain of what is effectively late 2nd/early 3rd pick.
Option 2: Braves don't sign anyone with a QO and sign Donaldson. No change.
Option 3: Braves sign Will Smith, and don't re-sign Donaldson. Braves effectively drop 5-10 spots in the 2nd rd and lose about 100k of bonus pool.
Option 4: Braves sign Will Smith and another player with QO, and don't re-sign Donaldson. Braves drop 5-10 spots in 2nd rd, lose 100k of bonus pool, and lose their 3rd round pick (600k? bonus pool). Note here the issue isn't so much loss of picks as it is the loss of bonus money as long as you have money you can sign 2/3rd rd types on the third day.
Option 5: Braves sign Will Smith and another player with QO, and re-sign Donaldson. Braves lose 2nd and 3rd round picks.
Don't get bogged down in the semantics too much. Option 3 is pretty close to status quo as far as the draft.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Trading Freddie Freeman five years ago would have been a strategy. It's not the strategy the Braves followed and the strategy the Braves chose has succeeded.
I don't think it really makes sense to pretend like the Freeman situation is an existential crisis. It's not clear that he presents a payroll problem at this point with the Braves new found cash and it is certainly not a mandatory problem.
I don't think it really makes sense to pretend like the Freeman situation is an existential crisis. It's not clear that he presents a payroll problem at this point with the Braves new found cash and it is certainly not a mandatory problem.
Hudson2
Well-known member
I don’t see 2 big trades so it’s either Bryant or Lindor imo. Bryant fills a bigger need but if the Twins are more willing to make a trade then I hope we make a strong offer. I don’t see JD going to Minnesota but I can Washington. They could make him a 4 year offer with a 5th year option with a big buyout like 5-7 million then I think he’s gone. AA doesn’t want to go to 4 years but if he sees the trade market to difficult then maybe he blinks and offers the 4th year.
Southcack77
Well-known member
If the Braves are going to live in a place where their payroll is 160m then trading prospects makes a lot more sense than it did when the payroll was 115m. That said, I don't see the Braves making two big trades either unless they can get guys for the type of package Kluber went for.