Hot damn I knew Prado had some good years with us, but had no idea he had two 5.0 WAR seasons for us. Umbellibable.
Fangraphs Braves Prospect Rankings
- Thread starter CJ9
- Start date
I'd have lost big, big bets on that one, without a damn doubt.
he didn't hit 5 fWAR with the Braves, but he did do 2.5, 3.8, and 4.5. he then did 3.4 and 3.8 with the Marlins. i wouldn't call him just a sub.
striker42
Well-known member
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-big-is-too-big-for-shortstop/
Interesting article analyzing what we're discussing about Shewmake. The author had a difficult time drawing some conclusions because of sample size issues but he did a good job of analyzing the limits of the position. Shewmake would be at the outside limit for height. 6-4 is hardly unprecedented for a SS but it isn't common.
One thing I found interesting was the average weight gain from age 17 until maturity. The average was 28 pounds. If Shewmake put on 28 pounds from his draft weight, he'd be at 218. This would again be on the higher end of the curve. Weights in that range are more common than being 6-4 at SS, but he'd still be one of the bigger SS in the game.
28 pounds is just the average. There are arguments that Shewmake could gain more or less. First, 28 is the average from 17 until maturity. Shewmake is already 22 so he's already 5 years into that growth. Additionally, there are indications Shewmake struggled to put on weight while playing for a division I program. So we might expect less than 28 pounds.
On the other side of the argument is the fact that the Braves have expressed the desire that Shewmake add bulk to increase his power. He's also now a baseball player full time with access to the resources the Braves can offer. Additionally, Shewmake has the frame to carry well over 30 more pounds.
I think a lot depends on how much Shewmake bulks up. If he is really able to put on muscle and gets up to 225 or so, I think he outgrows short. If he stays in the neighborhood of 215 or below, I think his odds are much better of sticking (at least until he starts approaching 30).
While athletes have been able to get bigger and stronger in recent years without losing a ton of speed, I'm still not going to put money on someone being able to stick at SS when they'd be one of the biggest in the game at that position (6-4, 220+ would be one of the biggest). Also, SS is more about quickness and agility than top end speed so it's a bit of a different measure.
Interesting article analyzing what we're discussing about Shewmake. The author had a difficult time drawing some conclusions because of sample size issues but he did a good job of analyzing the limits of the position. Shewmake would be at the outside limit for height. 6-4 is hardly unprecedented for a SS but it isn't common.
One thing I found interesting was the average weight gain from age 17 until maturity. The average was 28 pounds. If Shewmake put on 28 pounds from his draft weight, he'd be at 218. This would again be on the higher end of the curve. Weights in that range are more common than being 6-4 at SS, but he'd still be one of the bigger SS in the game.
28 pounds is just the average. There are arguments that Shewmake could gain more or less. First, 28 is the average from 17 until maturity. Shewmake is already 22 so he's already 5 years into that growth. Additionally, there are indications Shewmake struggled to put on weight while playing for a division I program. So we might expect less than 28 pounds.
On the other side of the argument is the fact that the Braves have expressed the desire that Shewmake add bulk to increase his power. He's also now a baseball player full time with access to the resources the Braves can offer. Additionally, Shewmake has the frame to carry well over 30 more pounds.
I think a lot depends on how much Shewmake bulks up. If he is really able to put on muscle and gets up to 225 or so, I think he outgrows short. If he stays in the neighborhood of 215 or below, I think his odds are much better of sticking (at least until he starts approaching 30).
While athletes have been able to get bigger and stronger in recent years without losing a ton of speed, I'm still not going to put money on someone being able to stick at SS when they'd be one of the biggest in the game at that position (6-4, 220+ would be one of the biggest). Also, SS is more about quickness and agility than top end speed so it's a bit of a different measure.
Ya think? He's almost at maturity already. Expecting him to gain 28 lbs or more doesn't really seem to be the most likely of outcomes.
This seems like a strange hill to die on. It'd be much easier to admit you were wrong than spending time searching for random articles to try and support an already weak argument.
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uh, yeah, Shewmake wasn't 17 when he was drafted...he was 21, which is also known as "4 years older and more physically mature than 17." so why would he gain 28 lbs....
striker42
Well-known member
I normally would agree with you. 28 pounds seems like a lot for a 22 year old to add. The problem is he's 6-4 and 190. He's rail thin. He's got a lot more room than most 22 year olds who are 6-4.
I'm not sure any of us will ever be proven right about him sticking at short. He's much more likely to end up being used all over the field. As he should be.
striker42
Well-known member
You're discounting someone attempting to put on weight. If you're 21, 6-4, and weigh 210 pounds, you're not going to try to put on a ton of weight. Maybe add a little bit but you're not going to want to get too big.
If you're 21, 6-4, and weigh 190, you're likely going to try to put on more weight. The Braves have already stated they want him to do it to add some pop. Ideally we'd get him to about 215-220. That would put him in the range Chipper played in (Chipper was listed at 210 but he was bigger than that, over 220).
Honestly, we're stuck in the weeds as to whether or not he'll stick at SS as I doubt the plan is for him to be a fulltime SS. This just goes back to arguments when he was drafted as to whether he's a fulltime SS or a utility guy and I don't think anyone by now would be unhappy if he's a super utility player. I've come around to him because the more I've thought about it, the more I realize how valuable he'd be as one.
If he adds 30+ pounds of muscle, get up to 20+ HR power, and outgrows being a fulltime SS, I don't think anyone cares.
you're discounting that he has struggled to add weight in the past, and wouldn't be naturally gaining weight as a 17-year old would, but would be focusing on adding a certain, structured amount. you're also discounting that getting to 210 would be 20lbs., not 28.
i'm not really sure the point of this discussion, tho, other than someone trying to save a little face.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Disclaimer: I don't know BS or anything other than what most that have read regarding his prospect evals.
I wouldn't think he could reasonably get to 228 or anywhere near that. You most likely looking at a guy that's 6'4 205 at his peak. Probably wouldn't get passed 210 without adding bad weight to the frame.
I wouldn't think he could reasonably get to 228 or anywhere near that. You most likely looking at a guy that's 6'4 205 at his peak. Probably wouldn't get passed 210 without adding bad weight to the frame.
striker42
Well-known member
I'm not discounting that. It was in my post when I posted the article. It's entirely possible he never crosses the 200 threshold.
There isn't a point to this discussion. And I don't know how it would be about me saving face as I want to see Shewmake add a bunch of muscle. I'd love to see him get to at least 215 and see a jump in his power. I actually want him to outgrow being a fulltime SS. This discussion is made even more pointless as Shewmake is likely to end up playing all over even if he could stick at SS fulltime.
This is part of the problem - some of you guys group "casual fans" and those who may not believe all decisions have to be strictly dictated by analytics together, and that's simply not the case.
Plenty of people around here understand and agree that utilizing players better will help in plenty of areas - there have been countless occasions where we've screamed for Snitker to sit Markakis or Ender, give Freddie/Ozzie/Acuna more rest, etc. because it will help in the long run. That doesn't mean you have to subscribe to the "never play someone except in certain situations" theory.
Things that the numbers can't cover come up from time-to-time - one of the guys you planned to sit (or your sub) shows up that day and doesn't feel well, so you start Ender against a lefty, and so on. Somebody's sick kid kept them up all night or they have some kind of other family issue and they just aren't the best option on that particular day. Ideally you can follow the numbers all the time - things just don't always work out that way.
Those things aren't always discussed in press conferences because not everyone's looking to place blame somewhere else - Freddie and others have said many times that those kinds of things are usually kept within the clubhouse walls.
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well i recall you railing on and on and on about how Shewmake was only a utility guy and couldn't play defense well enough, partially due to his size, to fit in any one spot long-term. now that that immediate, ignorant, aggressively confident take has been exposed to be pretty clearly untrue, you're trying to still kind of make it fit and not seem as ridiculous and over-reactionary as it was.
i see you dog.
striker42
Well-known member
I maintain he's a utility guy. What's changed is I've come around to the idea that it's a good thing. I don't want him to be a fulltime SS. So I still think he's the same player, I'm just more appreciative of the value that brings.
so you maintain that he doesn't have a position, despite grading out (by people who have actually watched him as a pro) as a plus defender at SS?
or does the fact that he may be plus at multiple positions on the infield somehow prove your initial crying about him probably having to move to the OF as a prospect correct?
you were pretty clearly wrong on your confident declarations about Shewmake. "...to go along with very positive public and private defensive metrics at shortstop." reports since he's been a pro don't backup pretty much anything you said about him when he was drafted...which is exactly why many, myself included, said you were overreacting and couldn't make a determination about the pick right away. you did, tho, and your ramblings are proving incorrect.
the last quote above is comparing him to Lipka, who had to move from SS to the OF as a prospect..pretty clear that won't be happening with Shewmake.
and here's a somewhat unrelated "lol":
i don't think i'd sit here today and call the Braves cash-strapped, but hey, i'm sure i can rationalize myself into being correct if i did want to declare that.
i think most had reservations about the pick at the time. i wasn't thrilled. but no one else whined over and over about it, asserting things to be true that apparently weren't true at all. you overreacted. today, the pick looks much better than it did at the time, suggesting maybe the Braves had a good idea about the player. which is why we wait to evaluate drafts.
striker42
Well-known member
I'm pretty sure I've already admitted I was overly harsh on Shewmake when we drafted him. On draft day I was excited at the prospect of two first rounders hoping we grabbed someone with star potential. Then both our first rounders being high floor, lower ceiling college guys. I freely admit I let my annoyance with that strategy make me overly critical of Shewmake. I still don't like the strategy.
We'll end up seeing how he grades out defensively when he gets here. I'm still of the opinion that he doesn't really profile great at any one position. I'm just no longer of the opinion that it's a bad thing as he doesn't profile as bad at 7 positions. Let him range all over the diamond filling in for injuries, giving guys rest, platooning with guys, etc.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
5 bWAR (do we still call it rWAR?) twice on bb-ref. DRS seems to like him more than UZR, so pick your poison there. Personally, DRS is the more advanced stat so far as I can tell, so bWAR is my pick.
but you specifically stated over and over that he doesn't play defense well enough to play on the left side of the infield. this, by all accounts of people who have actually watched him and graded him (aka not you) don't agree at all with that. he clearly plays defense well enough to stick at SS.
you're of that opinion, mostly, to avoid admitting you were pretty dead wrong. why else would you be of that opinion based on the knowledge we have now? it doesn't make any sense..other than trying to save face, framing yourself as still sort of correct when in reality, you weren't..at all.
sure, i'm not against using either, but he was also impressive according to fWAR. so either way, he put up some apparently underrated seasons.