613 cases is evidence of the curve flattening.
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
613 cases is evidence of the curve flattening.
613 new cases would represent the 4th highest one day total in Sweden, and a spike from recent days.
Everything you just listed in this post are facts.
It still doesn't change the fact that the curve IS flattening in Sweden.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Makes literally no sense to me, but whatever.
People were/are worried about hospitalization strain... because it would lead to a higher death rate. That may be in fact happening to some degree in NYC.
It makes no sense that a hospital system overwhelmed to where people will physically not be able to be treated and at least the same number of deaths now would be more disastrous than a system where everyone is treated and people are dying? You are just being obtuse now and thats fine. You do you.
NYC got slammed because the spread was fastest in NYC. That is THE only reason. Nothing to do with the models getting hospitalization figures dramatically wrong.
The Lockdowns were ALWAYS due to the hospital strain. Don't rewrite history.
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Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Again, we would expect the curve to be flattening to some degree in Sweden, right? It isn't like they are actually doing nothing. They've followed a number of the potential strategies from the IC report, as far as I can see.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Got it, we weren't actually worried about people dying. Good point.
I agree but the whole point is to let people make their own decisions. And the flattening has been happening for the past 15 days.
This is the response of someone who knows they are wrong.
Well done.
Keep pretending the strain on the hospital system wasn't the reason we needed to go into lockdown .
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I wonder if New York and other states were relying on their forecasts for how many hospital beds or ventilators were needed. I hope not because it has been apparent for some time that something was wrong, badly wrong, with those forecasts. It would have been a fairly easy fix to change the multiple. An even better idea would have been to have some advance consultations with hospitals around the country about what their protocol for admitting patients would be.
PPP program has closed, no more money left for small businesses.
Had to give that extra money to the big dogs and a loophole to the 1% in the bill.
Had to give that extra money to the big dogs and a loophole to the 1% in the bill.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
No, no, I got. We weren't at all worried about overloaded hospitals leading to more deaths. We were only worried about the social strain and stuff.
I just can't believe how I missed it before. Thank you for your persistence in bringing these issues to light in these uncertain times.
I just can't believe how I missed it before. Thank you for your persistence in bringing these issues to light in these uncertain times.
You're welcome.
More like Nancy didn't think it would be used and blocked the additional funding.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
My guess is that people at the top (well maybe not de Blasio, not sure if he can even read) were probably looking at a bunch of different models, but trying to prepare for the worst numbers amongst them, just in case. But who knows. I'm not sure the hospitals could have given you a completely accurate picture of their admitting procedures before they actually got into triage mode.
I mean, for another thing, the number of people dying outside the hospitals (which is apparently a lot in NYC) doesn't really seem baked into the initial model at all. That could be messing up the ratios as well.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I applied for one. My bank has gone radio silence on me so no idea if I got it. Probably not. But I'm fairly confident Congress will pass funds to enlarge the program. After the usual wrangling. From an economic perspective, it is more important to bail out the state and local governments at this point. They are all about to run out of money and will have to lay off a bunch of people without help from los federales. Also they need the money for a TTQ (test trace quaranting) program.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yeah, the deaths outside hospitals are an indication that the adjustments in admitting protocols were not really a good idea but something that was forced on overwhelmed system. A form of triage.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Still too early to tell. Next week MIGHT give you an idea or not.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Merkel's plan for re-opening Germany.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
The chancellor went into detailed explanations of the science behind her own plan.
A key variable the government was looking at, she said, is the so-called reproduction factor of the virus — the number of people an infected person passes the virus on to.
That factor currently stands at about 1, she said, meaning that one person gets infected by every newly infected person. If that factor rose even to 1.1, the German health care system would reach capacity by October, she said.
If it were allowed to rise to 1.2 — so out of five infected people one infects not one but two additional people — that limit is reached by July.
“With 1.3,” Ms. Merkel continued, “we have reached the limit of our health care system by June.”
“So you can see how small our leeway is,” she said, “the entire development rests on having a number of infections that we can keep track of and trace.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
The chancellor went into detailed explanations of the science behind her own plan.
A key variable the government was looking at, she said, is the so-called reproduction factor of the virus — the number of people an infected person passes the virus on to.
That factor currently stands at about 1, she said, meaning that one person gets infected by every newly infected person. If that factor rose even to 1.1, the German health care system would reach capacity by October, she said.
If it were allowed to rise to 1.2 — so out of five infected people one infects not one but two additional people — that limit is reached by July.
“With 1.3,” Ms. Merkel continued, “we have reached the limit of our health care system by June.”
“So you can see how small our leeway is,” she said, “the entire development rests on having a number of infections that we can keep track of and trace.”