The Coronavirus, not the beer

[Tw]1251463583197773824[/tw]

Just a hunch

Yes, smaller communities that have lots of infections will show a larger percentage. This is like basic math 101.

We already knew Chelsea was hit badly, and, not surprisingly, .1% of their entire population has already died as well. Even if we assume 16x the actual positive cases is correct, their death rate would already be .35and growing. .35% of 100 million people is 350k deaths. So yeah, even on the bottom scale, I'd say this has all been justified.
 
Last edited:
Yes, smaller communities that have lots of infections will show a larger percentage. This is like basic math 101.

We already knew Chelsea was hit badly, and, not surprisingly, .1% of their entire population has already died as well. Even if we assume 16x the actual positive cases is correct, their death rate would already be .4% and growing. .4% of 100 million people is 400k deaths. So yeah, even on the bottom scale, I'd say this has all been justified.

Virus broke into a nursing home killing 11 (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/12/metro/11-dead-after-testing-positive-virus-facilities-run-by-chelsea-jewish-lifecare-organization-says/.

When your death count is so low this will warp your true death rate. Its more of the same that we aren't being smart about it and protecting the right people from the beginning.
 
BERLIN — Felix Germann was not expecting anyone when his doorbell rang last week. Outside was a doctor who looked like she had just stepped out of an operating theater, green scrubs, face mask and all — and a policeman.

“I didn’t do it!” Mr. Germann said, throwing up his hands, and everybody laughed.

The unusual visitors had come with an unusual proposal: Would he allow them to test his blood for Covid-19 antibodies? Every month? For a year? Starting next week?

He would be helping to further the science that would ultimately allow for a controlled lifting of social and economic restrictions and save lives.

“Of course I said yes,” said Mr. Germann, a 41-year-old project manager at a media company. “I want to help. This is a collective crisis. The government is doing what it can. Everyone needs to do their bit.”

With that, Mr. Germann and his girlfriend joined 3,000 households chosen at random in Munich for an ambitious study whose central aim is to understand how many people — even those with no symptoms — have already had the virus, a key variable to make decisions about public life in a pandemic.

The study is part of an aggressive approach to combat the virus in a comprehensive way that has made Germany a leader among Western nations figuring out how to control the contagion while returning to something resembling normal life.

Other nations, including the United States, are still struggling to test for infections. But Germany is doing that and more. It is aiming to sample the entire population for antibodies in coming months, hoping to gain valuable insight into how deeply the virus has penetrated the society at large, how deadly it really is, and how immunity is evolving.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
 
Virus broke into a nursing home killing 11 (https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/12/metro/11-dead-after-testing-positive-virus-facilities-run-by-chelsea-jewish-lifecare-organization-says/.

When your death count is so low this will warp your true death rate. Its more of the same that we aren't being smart about it and protecting the right people from the beginning.

This doesn't make the death rate any different. Without mitigation, this very same thing would be happening in cities and small communities around the nation.
 
Even more important moving forward we have to inform the world that there are really 2 different death rates. One that's around 1-2% for compromised individuals and another that has a statistically insignificant value for everyone else.
 
Already addressed this. Its doesnt kill without bias so the death rate is a reflection of how poorly we do as a society to protect the vulnerable. It will be different all over.

No one cares about your weird self-justifications about why empirical reality has proved your "predictions" wrong.
 
2ZQVFEB5MBBRRHBV3OTJ7ZXO2Y.jpg
 
Last edited:
White House adviser says people protesting stay-at-home orders are 'modern-day Rosa Parks'
Stephen Moore, a conservative economist and a member of the White House council to reopen the country compared those protesting the closure of nonessential businesses and schools to Rosa Parks, a civil rights activist who risked her life during the Montgomery bus boycott. The remarks drew criticism and anger in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a disproportionate impact on Black and Latino communities in the US.

a white supremacist tries to compare this tyranny to Rosa Parks
 
how could the models have been so wrong

if i ever came close to doing something like this under time pressure and all the uncertainty and complexity i'd be very proud

wonder if that will be one of the iconic pictures of our times

of course the real test for the model will be how it does more than a month into the future...namely May and June
 
Last edited:
Back
Top