The Coronavirus, not the beer

Carp said:
NY State to begin anti-body tests this week, so we should know fairly soon a good idea what percentage of the population has it and what the death rate is. It would be nice if thethe were right and half the population had it. I really doubt that's the case though.
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Numerous serological tests have been done around the world. Sensitivity to false positives is a real thing but all of the tests done thus far point to one thing.

Widespread and less deadly.

They aren't all wrong.

At this point it's how big of a multiple. 10? 20? More?
 
Carp said:
NY State to begin anti-body tests this week, so we should know fairly soon a good idea what percentage of the population has it and what the death rate is. It would be nice if thethe were right and half the population had it. I really doubt that's the case though.
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Did you not have any friends or coworkers who had coughs that lasted a few weeks or who had flu likE symptoms but didn’t test positive for the flu Over the past few months? I know A lot. I’d be willing to bet I had corona last January. I don’t think it’s 50% but I think the number is bigger than you think
 
Krgrecw said:
Did you not have any friends or coworkers who had coughs that lasted a few weeks or who had flu likE symptoms but didn’t test positive for the flu Over the past few months? I know A lot. I’d be willing to bet I had corona last January. I don’t think it’s 50% but I think the number is bigger than you think
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Percentage will vary by location.

Some places might be as small as 1%. Its been effectively shown that the subway system was a super highway for the virus transmission.

That's why NYC is basically it's own country in terms of infections/hospitalizations/deaths.

Its smack right in our faces. Sometimes the obvious answer is the right one.
 
Carp said:
NY State to begin anti-body tests this week, so we should know fairly soon a good idea what percentage of the population has it and what the death rate is. It would be nice if thethe were right and half the population had it. I really doubt that's the case though.
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Yeah, it would be great if herd immunity were established in the city.
 
Krgrecw said:
Did you not have any friends or coworkers who had coughs that lasted a few weeks or who had flu likE symptoms but didn’t test positive for the flu Over the past few months? I know A lot. I’d be willing to bet I had corona last January. I don’t think it’s 50% but I think the number is bigger than you think
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I keep hearing this and it's an extremely poor opinion. Testing started in March. If this were true, there would have been more positive cases as everyone was on high alert for any patients with symptoms consistent with the virus. I myself had an upper respiratory infection and a cough that last 3-4 weeks. Didn't come back as flu or strep. That doesn't mean it was corona. Especially given how few positive tests my area has had with people with similar symptoms.
 
Carp said:
I keep hearing this and it's an extremely poor opinion. Testing started in March. If this were true, there would have been more positive cases as everyone was on high alert for any patients with symptoms consistent with the virus. I myself had an upper respiratory infection and a cough that last 3-4 weeks. Didn't come back as flu or strep. That doesn't mean it was corona. Especially given how few positive tests my area has had with people with similar symptoms.
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I've posted things from physicians the past week or so that have basicallly said this was undetected for a while before testing started. The nature of how the virus spreads would mean small amounts of infection existed then but it was around.
 
nsacpi said:
My guess is the city is at around 25% and the rest of the country less than 10%.
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That's roughly my guess, with the exception of a few cities that have been hit hard. I doubt very much it's close to 50% in NYC. I'd be very surprised it was over 35%. More likely around 20-25%.
 
nsacpi said:
My guess is the city is at around 25% and the rest of the country less than 10%.
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That's roughly my guess, with the exception of a few cities that have been hit hard. I doubt very much it's close to 50% in NYC. I'd be very surprised it was over 35%. More likely around 20-25%.
 
Carp said:
That's roughly my guess, with the exception of a few cities that have been hit hard. I doubt very much it's close to 50% in NYC. I'd be very surprised it was over 35%. More likely around 20-25%.
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Smaller places have already had some testing in excess of this number.
 
Carp said:
Again, percentages are more fickle with lower population areas and not likely to hold true for larger populations.
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They aren't all off by an egregious amount. This is also not how sampling works.

NYC is like its own country with infections/hospitalizations/deaths.

Why is that?

Did you read the MIT study?
 
nsacpi said:
What did the Santa Clara county study show?

Or the study of pregnant women in New York City?
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Santa Clara showed a multiple. Multiple is up for debate but even on the low end it would still result in a larger percentage than you expect for NY. The area wasn't hard hit with confirmed infections so its kind of irrelevant what their 'percentage' was in relation to NYC. Just a dishonest angle you are taking here.

Pregnant women are effectively self isolated as is and won't be exposed to the same grind that all other New Yorkers who are using mass transit to get to work. So again. just another example that continues to show you guys aren't using logic in coming to your conclusions.
 
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