What Would A "Fair" Freeman Extension Look Like?

[Horsehide Harry]

Here's the problem, Harry, jokes and teasing notwithstanding. Because we didn't trade Freeman, you can advocate for a parallel universe where we did trade him, and because that universe doesn't actually exist, you can imagine it looking however you want and no one can prove you wrong. So when you talk about a hypothetical Freeman trade, it's a dynamite trade where the Braves acquired multiple high-quality young players and prospects and set the franchise up for years to come.

But we have no idea what a winter 2015 Freeman trade would have actually looked like. Yes, there's a scenario where the Braves trade Freeman after the 2015 season and hit the jackpot and now the 2020 Braves have a bevvy of affordable young talent that can replicate Freeman's production at a fraction of the price and everything is golden. But just as likely is a scenario where the Braves trade Freeman and whiff on all the talent they acquire in return, at which point they're a potential playoff team with a gaping hole at first base that holds them back from actually reaching the postseason.

You're a Civil War buff sitting at a map of an 1860's battlefield and re-fighting the battle with the benefit of 160 years of hindsight while assuming everything works perfectly and your plan unfolds exactly as expected.

I understand what you're saying but it really doesn't apply. I'm willing to admit that there are many, many scenarios where trading Freeman resulted in little to nothing back, especially considering the Johns were in charge. But that's a question of FO competence, not overall correct strategy. Freddie wasn't traded, not because keeping him through a rebuild was the most efficient and correct way to go, but because the Johns were trying their BS reload strategy IMO. They didn't commit to a full out rebuild. And, now what I thought would happen IS happening: the Braves are a good but not great team with significant flaws that really can't be addressed because there's not enough payroll space to add enough salary to adequately cover the flaws and the talent waves in the minor leagues are not deep enough to provide the help needed. The farm is still relatively good but not at the top of baseball and a number of the best prospects are about to move into the majors as replacements of others who will be moving on like Folty, Flowers, d'Arnaud, Freeman, Inciarte, Markakis, etc. The ml talent is there to help navigate those losses (with the exception of Freeman) but not both do that AND address the flaws enough to be the team that I would like to see them be.

 

[Skeeter31]

So you also foresaw the Coppy scandal and how that would decimate our farm system, thus compounding this problem? That’s amazing. If that’s really true, you should have been hired in the front office.

This is a truly great team, and we have our highest payroll we’ve ever had. Paying the money we’re currently paying to Freeman isn’t an issue for this team right now. If we weren’t paying him, we’d be paying the same or even more to JD and have a lesser player at 1B right now. We wouldn’t have gotten nearly the production out of the pieces we would have received from trading Freeman. Hell, look at what we got for trading Upton, Gattis, Kimbrel, Simmons, etc...other than Folty (who can be a star one day and demoted to AAA the next) not a whole lot of return for those players. If we had traded Freeman at the same time it most likely would have been more of the same.

Freeman worked perfectly for the time he’s here. His contract is acceptable during this phase of our contention window. And hopefully he’ll be allowed to walk when his contract is up, freeing up 20+M per year to spread around other additions.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

So you also foresaw the Coppy scandal and how that would decimate our farm system, thus compounding this problem? That’s amazing. If that’s really true, you should have been hired in the front office.

This is a truly great team, and we have our highest payroll we’ve ever had. Paying the money we’re currently paying to Freeman isn’t an issue for this team right now. If we weren’t paying him, we’d be paying the same or even more to JD and have a lesser player at 1B right now. We wouldn’t have gotten nearly the production out of the pieces we would have received from trading Freeman. Hell, look at what we got for trading Upton, Gattis, Kimbrel, Simmons, etc...other than Folty (who can be a star one day and demoted to AAA the next) not a whole lot of return for those players. If we had traded Freeman at the same time it most likely would have been more of the same.

Freeman worked perfectly for the time he’s here. His contract is acceptable during this phase of our contention window. And hopefully he’ll be allowed to walk when his contract is up, freeing up 20+M per year to spread around other additions.

Nice strawman.

If you don't want to address what I did say, address what I didn't.

 

[Carp]

So you also foresaw the Coppy scandal and how that would decimate our farm system, thus compounding this problem? That’s amazing. If that’s really true, you should have been hired in the front office.

This is a truly great team, and we have our highest payroll we’ve ever had. Paying the money we’re currently paying to Freeman isn’t an issue for this team right now. If we weren’t paying him, we’d be paying the same or even more to JD and have a lesser player at 1B right now. We wouldn’t have gotten nearly the production out of the pieces we would have received from trading Freeman. Hell, look at what we got for trading Upton, Gattis, Kimbrel, Simmons, etc...other than Folty (who can be a star one day and demoted to AAA the next) not a whole lot of return for those players. If we had traded Freeman at the same time it most likely would have been more of the same.

Freeman worked perfectly for the time he’s here. His contract is acceptable during this phase of our contention window. And hopefully he’ll be allowed to walk when his contract is up, freeing up 20+M per year to spread around other additions.

We got also got Fried and the Comp pick that turned into Riley. I hold out hope for Newk, but he would have to become Lester 2.0 for me to forgive that trade. Simba was too valuable and too well liked.

But, yeah, the Coppy days were pretty bad outside of the Miller trades.

 

[OcalaBrave]

They didn't commit to a full out rebuild. And, now what I thought would happen IS happening: the Braves are a good but not great team with significant flaws that really can't be addressed because there's not enough payroll space to add enough salary to adequately cover the flaws and the talent waves in the minor leagues are not deep enough to provide the help needed. The farm is still relatively good but not at the top of baseball and a number of the best prospects are about to move into the majors as replacements of others who will be moving on like Folty, Flowers, d'Arnaud, Freeman, Inciarte, Markakis, etc. The ml talent is there to help navigate those losses (with the exception of Freeman) but not both do that AND address the flaws enough to be the team that I would like to see them be.

I don't see it that way.

The Braves have two of the best young position players in MLB (Acuna and Albies) locked in through 2027. Soroka seems to have established himself as a long term fixture in the Braves rotation. He doesn't reach FA until 2024. Those three plus Freddie are the cornerstones of the franchise at the moment.

In the second tier you have Fried and Swanson. They have shown glimpses, but need to add consistency to get to that cornerstone level. Both are 26, but injuries have yet to permit Swanson to get 500 ABs and Fried has a single season of consistent starts. There is reason to believe both are still getting better. Even assuming they have plateaued, both are worthy of being significant contributors on a contending team.

Third tier seems to be Austin Riley and Kyle Wright. Both have talent, have been hyped prospects, but now must establish themselves in MLB.

Fourth tier are Pache, Waters, Anderson and Langeliers. Talented kids that have something to prove in the minors before they join tier three.

The Braves have spent the last two off-seasons proving they will not be handing out huge contracts to prime FA. Instead, they will offer one year deals to vets that can bring experience and fill the gaps until long term solutions are found. It is a good strategy to maintain financial flexibility if you can identify the right vets with something left in the tank. Hammels is 7 years removed from his glory days, but he shows enough when he starts to warrant a contract and hope you get 25 starts and a guy that can pitch in a short playoff series. Ozuna is the kind of player easily found every off-season. Productive, but not a star.

In short, this team is set-up with a window spanning at least 5 years in which "flaws" will either be filled by kids coming up or by rental vets. The development of The kids discussed above, not available payroll, will determine whether this team becomes great.

Consider this about Freddie when discussing whether it was right to keep him. Freddie is essentially a guaranteed .280+, 25+HR, 90+ RBI middle of the order bat. If you trade that, where would you get another one? That's the same predicament you are in if you let him walk fearing a decline is around the corner. Freeman is 30. He's gone to the post consistently the past two years and been not only the Braves best hitter, but a very good defensive 1B. What message does it send to the kids coming up if his leadership during the rebuild isn't rewarded?

 

[MadduxFanII]

I understand what you're saying but it really doesn't apply. I'm willing to admit that there are many, many scenarios where trading Freeman resulted in little to nothing back, especially considering the Johns were in charge. But that's a question of FO competence, not overall correct strategy.

But any team-building strategy, especially those built around trading away proven commodities for young players, needs to account for the inherent uncertainty of the approach. You have to weigh the potential return against the possibility that, even with dynamite scouting and player development, you might end up trading away a good player for nothing, and then you take into account the values of the players involved to your franchise.

In the case of Justin Upton, that was a pretty easy calculation. He had one year left on his contract, we weren't going to compete in 2015 and we weren't going to re-sign him after the season, so any return that exceeded the value of the compensatory draft pick we'd receive for letting him walk as a free agent would be the smart play.

Freeman was a much different case - a younger player, signed through his prime years to a team-friendly contract that we had a reasonable expectation (which proved correct) would take him through to seasons where the Braves were a contender. In the winter of 2015, then, you're facing the prospect of trading away six years of an All Star for an uncertain return in a deal that you could reasonably foresee would affect the Braves when they were competing for the postseason. It's a much, much more difficult decision, and opting to hold on to Freeman (whatever the actual rationale turned out to be) was a perfectly reasonable call. And when you have the benefit of hindsight, as we do now, it's even easier to see how keeping Freeman was the right choice.

 

[Slippyjms]

I don't see it that way.

Consider this about Freddie when discussing whether it was right to keep him. Freddie is essentially a guaranteed .280+, 25+HR, 90+ RBI middle of the order bat. If you trade that, where would you get another one? That's the same predicament you are in if you let him walk fearing a decline is around the corner. Freeman is 30. He's gone to the post consistently the past two years and been not only the Braves best hitter, but a very good defensive 1B. What message does it send to the kids coming up if his leadership during the rebuild isn't rewarded?

You can find these bats anywhere. Especially at 1b. Also Freeman's defense at 1b leaves much to be desired. He's closer to DH than 1b at this point.

 

[Enscheff]

It's not that trading Freeman during the rebuild was a bad idea. It certainly held merit, and is a perfectly valid position to take. It is entirely possible the Braves could have 1-2 good young players in addition to whatever they would have bought with Freeman's salary.

The silliness comes in when someone attempts to say "I told you so" after Freeman led the team to 2 NL East titles, and his justification is that he may leave as a FA during his decline years 2 seasons from now. That same person then doubles down and claims the Braves weren't really very good the last 2 years.

It was the worst brag post ever, supported by a point that doesn't even support the boast being made.

Fact of the matter is Freeman was an integral part of 2 contending teams, and that looks to be the case for the rest of the contract. Keeping him worked out about as good as possible, so using that outcome to say "I told you so" is laughable and is being deservedly mocked.

 

[Southcack77]

Here's the problem, Harry, jokes and teasing notwithstanding. Because we didn't trade Freeman, you can advocate for a parallel universe where we did trade him, and because that universe doesn't actually exist, you can imagine it looking however you want and no one can prove you wrong. So when you talk about a hypothetical Freeman trade, it's a dynamite trade where the Braves acquired multiple high-quality young players and prospects and set the franchise up for years to come.

But we have no idea what a winter 2015 Freeman trade would have actually looked like. Yes, there's a scenario where the Braves trade Freeman after the 2015 season and hit the jackpot and now the 2020 Braves have a bevvy of affordable young talent that can replicate Freeman's production at a fraction of the price and everything is golden. But just as likely is a scenario where the Braves trade Freeman and whiff on all the talent they acquire in return, at which point they're a potential playoff team with a gaping hole at first base that holds them back from actually reaching the postseason.

You're a Civil War buff sitting at a map of an 1860's battlefield and re-fighting the battle with the benefit of 160 years of hindsight while assuming everything works perfectly and your plan unfolds exactly as expected.

I guess you could look and see who the best prospect traded during that window of time plus 6 months or so and imagine that player is a Brave as a proxy.

That might be a mildly interesting exercise.

 

[MadduxFanII]

I guess you could look and see who the best prospect traded during that window of time plus 6 months or so and imagine that player is a Brave as a proxy.

That might be a mildly interesting exercise.

Sigh. Dammit. I actually did this. Well, the most half-assed possible version of this.

I looked through the 2015-2016 off-season transactions on B-Ref. Turns out, the best prospect traded in the winter was...Dansby Swanson. Thanks, Dave Stewart.

Aside from that deal, it looks like the best prospect trade was San Diego shipping Kimbrel to Boston for Manuel Margot and Javy Guerra. Boston's first base situation was pretty bad at that point - their primary 1B in 2015 was a toasty Mike Napoli, and they had to sign Hanley Ramirez that off-season. You could imagine they'd be interested in Freeman if he was available.

I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to determine if we could have gotten the Kimbrel package for Freeman or even done better, and if we would be better off with Margot and Freeman's money instead of Freeman.

 

[Southcack77]

Sigh. Dammit. I actually did this. Well, the most half-assed possible version of this.

I looked through the 2015-2016 off-season transactions on B-Ref. Turns out, the best prospect traded in the winter was...Dansby Swanson. Thanks, Dave Stewart.

Aside from that deal, it looks like the best prospect trade was San Diego shipping Kimbrel to Boston for Manuel Margot and Javy Guerra. Boston's first base situation was pretty bad at that point - their primary 1B in 2015 was a toasty Mike Napoli, and they had to sign Hanley Ramirez that off-season. You could imagine they'd be interested in Freeman if he was available.

I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to determine if we could have gotten the Kimbrel package for Freeman or even done better, and if we would be better off with Margot and Freeman's money instead of Freeman.

That Kimbrel trade was hailed as a prime what if, but this far hasn't produced much for San Diego.

I have not quite given up on Margot but it's not looking good for him.

 

[Enscheff]

Here's a decent breakdown of the worst contracts on each team:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ml...ract-on-every-mlb-team/ar-BB13Dz8X?li=BBnba9I

Of the 35 names listed, 9 of them are 1B. That's over 25% of the worst contracts from a position that only accounts for something like 5%-10% of total roster spots.

Are the genius data analysts starting to see a trend here?

 

[Metaphysicist]

It really does reinforce your idea that we can always just sign a Jose Abreu type.

What's that? Jose Abreu is also on that list? Oh, geez, now I don't know what to think. I guess we might be doomed no matter what.

 

[Enscheff]

It really does reinforce your idea that we can always just sign a Jose Abreu type.

What's that? Jose Abreu is also on that list? Oh, geez, now I don't know what to think. I guess we might be doomed no matter what.

To be clear...

You realize Abreu accepted a QO, and was then extended while under team control...right? Therefore, Abreu was, by proof of historical fact, available on a 1 year deal.

Abreu for 1 year is fine. Extending him was not. Or...exactly what I've been saying for months now about 1B.

Are you at all capable of understanding this nuance? No, of course you aren't...just another "gotcha” fail from the usual suspect.

Your silence will say all that needs to be said.

 

[Metaphysicist]

Abreu for 1 year is fine. Extending him was not. Or...exactly what I've been saying for months now about 1B.

The point is Abreu was available for 3/50 or 1/17. Those types are always available.

Sorry, you are just operating at such a high level, it is just so hard to follow along. It's a shame we keep misunderstanding each other. I'll eventually start picking up on the nuance, I hope.

But I'm really glad to know we could have definitely signed Jose Abreu for 1/17. It's weird how he immediately had a contract extension on the table though... how crazy the White Sox changed their mind so fast!

 

[jpx7]

On the one hand, it's nice that the Braves are in the upper quartile of teams without a disastrous contract on the books: at least the Melancon contract, while pricey, is only one year, and for an otherwise pretty good reliever. (I'd argue the Will Smith contract is actually worse, and was from the moment it was signed, but that's a digression).

On the other hand, even though extenting Freeman for multiple years—under any of the more likely scenarios—would put the Braves in jeopardy of falling out of the group, I do think it'll be much more difficult to replace the level of production he's afforded than just walking up to the defensive-corner tree and plucking a cheap, juicy 3+-WAR morsel from its branches.

But the real key is that Future Freeman is also unlikely to replicate the level of production he's afforded the Braves heretofore. It really is a bit of a bind, from multiple angles—and I really think it'll come down to how committed Freeman is to playing out his career in one uniform. If he's willing to sign a short-term deal, with a lot of option-protection (like the three-year deal, with a couple options, I threw out earlier in the thread), I think it's possible/workable to keep him around further into the new decade. If he's not, the Braves should let him sunset with a looser-pocketed team, because there are other viable options to replace that production, even if it isn't as facile as Enscheff has suggested.

 

[Southcack77]

The problem with 1B is that the stopgaps available in free agency are usually too expensive or not all that great.

It will be important for Braves to develop internal options (as they've been drafting to do) or be pretty disciplined and smart about replacing Freddie if that's why it comes to.

I feel like it's not necessarily a lock that Freddie will accept a QO, but assuming he does this is pretty far off in the future.

 

[jpx7]

I feel like it's not necessarily a lock that Freddie will accept a QO, but assuming he does this is pretty far off in the future.

This also assumes the QO system even makes it into the new CBA.

 

[thethe]

Guys, don't sweat it.

Bryce Ball will be ready for prime time in 2023.

 

[Southcack77]

This also assumes the QO system even makes it into the new CBA.

Good point.