The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
chop2chip
Well-known member
My friend, you are not grasping my point.
If you reopen, people are not going to immediately drastically alter their behavior. It’s going to gradually change as people feel more safe.
It made sense in March and April when we were still assessing the dangers of the disease and ramping up hospital capacity. We now have excess capacity now, so I don’t see any difference between opening next week vs July.
I think you can make a more credible argument keeping lockdown enforced until a vaccine is available (note to the Berenson crowd - that’s not my suggestion).
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Interview with Neil Ferguson of Imperial College
https://unherd.com/thepost/imperials-prof-neil-ferguson-responds-to-the-swedish-critique/
https://unherd.com/thepost/imperials-prof-neil-ferguson-responds-to-the-swedish-critique/
[Tw]1256340020786597890[/tw]
We next investigated the antiviral activity of these drugs and compounds, employing two viral assays (Fig. 6a). First, at Mt Sinai Hospital in New York, we developed a medium-throughput immunofluorescence-based assay (detecting the viral NP protein) to screen 37 compounds for inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Vero E6 cell line. Second, at the Institut Pasteur in Paris, viral RNA was monitored using qRT-PCR upon treatment with 44 drugs and compounds. Together, both locations tested 47 of the 69 compounds we identified, plus 13 to expand testing at the SigmaR1/R2 receptors and mRNA translation targets, and 15 additional molecules prioritized by other methods (see Methods and Supplementary Table 6). Viral growth and cytotoxicity were monitored at both institutions (Extended Data Figs. 8 & 9; Supplementary Table 6). Two classes of molecules emerged as effectively reducing viral infectivity: protein biogenesis inhibitors (zotatifin, ternatin-4, and PS3061; Fig. 6b, Extended Data Fig. 9) and ligands of the Sigma1 and Sigma2 receptors: haloperidol, PB28, PD-144418 and hydroxychloroquine, which is undergoing clinical trials in COVID-19 patients49
We next investigated the antiviral activity of these drugs and compounds, employing two viral assays (Fig. 6a). First, at Mt Sinai Hospital in New York, we developed a medium-throughput immunofluorescence-based assay (detecting the viral NP protein) to screen 37 compounds for inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Vero E6 cell line. Second, at the Institut Pasteur in Paris, viral RNA was monitored using qRT-PCR upon treatment with 44 drugs and compounds. Together, both locations tested 47 of the 69 compounds we identified, plus 13 to expand testing at the SigmaR1/R2 receptors and mRNA translation targets, and 15 additional molecules prioritized by other methods (see Methods and Supplementary Table 6). Viral growth and cytotoxicity were monitored at both institutions (Extended Data Figs. 8 & 9; Supplementary Table 6). Two classes of molecules emerged as effectively reducing viral infectivity: protein biogenesis inhibitors (zotatifin, ternatin-4, and PS3061; Fig. 6b, Extended Data Fig. 9) and ligands of the Sigma1 and Sigma2 receptors: haloperidol, PB28, PD-144418 and hydroxychloroquine, which is undergoing clinical trials in COVID-19 patients49
Still rising is not basically flat. They've steadily increased cases each week.
Please post your numbers.
BedellBrave
It's OVER 5,000!
Looking at the Johns Hopkins tracker, daily cases seem to be continuing to trend up (with the typical lower recorded counts during the weekends and Mondays), so I was also scratching my head at you saying they've flatten things thethe.
BedellBrave
It's OVER 5,000!
US death count now 64,789. What's that, about 60,000 in a month?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
“The whole point of this social distancing is to buy us time to build up capacity to do the types of public health interventions we know work,” Natalie Dean, a biostatistics professor at the University of Florida, previously told me. “If we’re not using this time to scale up testing to the level that we need it to be … we don’t have an exit strategy. And then when we lift things, we’re no better equipped than we were before.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/w...improved-in-april/ar-BB13tQ08?ocid=spartanntp
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/w...improved-in-april/ar-BB13tQ08?ocid=spartanntp
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
I suggest you not read the whole thread or you might scratch right through to your brain.
The death can lag anywhere from 3-6 weeks from infection so the deaths that happen now are not indicative of the current situation against the curve.
Runnin
Well-known member
Yes, almost a 2000 per day average for a whole month.
Trump's latest projection is 74K, unless he's changed it again. I think he pulled that number out of his arse because it sounded less bad to him. Unless a vaccine or really good treatment appears it looks like we'll blow by 74K in the first week of May and then be staring at 100K by the end of May.
Yesterday over 35,000 new cases.
A 71 yr old buddy of mine with copd, was rushed to the hospital last night with breathing difficulties. The initial diagnosis is that it is not covid, but regular copd symptoms.
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Runnin
Well-known member
Runnin
Well-known member
As far as I know, testing is next to non-existent for the regular population. We all know infection is much wider than reported but without lots of testing, you don't know.
I'd love to get tested.
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BedellBrave
It's OVER 5,000!
BedellBrave
It's OVER 5,000!
I'm sorry to hear about your buddy. One our sweet ladies is in a nursing home battling Covid-19. We have a nursing home director in the congregation as well. They are going in hazmat suits into the nursing homes to get the dead. I have a minister friend in Florida who is recovering and it ain't easy. So, maybe I'm particularly sensitive to this subject.
I also know two of the NYC hospitals in the eye of the storm having spent time in them with my daughter after an accident on a college visit last year (she got ran over). So it's personal in that way.
Runnin
Well-known member
Thanks. I'm hoping that he over-reacted and didn't need to go to the emergency room. He's recently divorced and retired, living alone in a foreign country, and self-quarantined. Must be stressful. Still waiting to hear.
Wishing for nothing but the best to you and your friends dealing with this. Your services, no pun intended, are no doubt on high demand and much needed these days.
The numbers debate becomes academic once you and yours are in the soup, so to speak. My brother's wife is the head nurse in a long-term care facility back in MS and doing okay so far. One of my private students is the head doctor of the covid unit here. I can't believe neither me nor anyone around me has come down with it yet. Maybe we've all got the antibodies.
new cases are an aggregation of smaller areas. The key is not to prevent infection. My contention has always been to make the right people get infected.
The infection death rate that we saw in New York is a function of terrible policies.
We won't see that elsewhere so number of infections isn't a problem in my opinion. Its the only true way forward.