SP options

I don’t pretend to know what’s wrong with Newk, or how to fix it. I also don’t know what they physically do at Driveline, or if what they do improves command. I’m pretty sure they work on improving velocity and spin axis to increase pitch performance, but that isn’t really Newk’s problem.

My guess is Newk needs to stick to the FA and a single breaking ball, learn how to execute both consistently, and then work on adding the CH. I have no idea what mechanical tweak he could make to improve control, since to me his delivery looks controlled and balanced. I have a feeling any changes they make are going to have more mental benefits than physical ones...hey, this new slight tweak makes me throw strikes, so I can be more aggressive.

He has always been in a race between improving his control while his stuff deteriorates. He’s losing that race pretty badly now.

Its always looked like a release point issue for me. I'm no expert but Ive read where the Angels thought him having an inconsistent release point was something he needed to fix.
 
Any analysis of spending that does not factor COVID losses from this year and next and the pending strike is not valid.
 
I’m not sure why we still go through the exercise of adding up all the salaries leaving the team as if that’s any indication of future payroll space.

Can someone do the legwork of adding up the guaranteed money and a few rough arb projections? Then we have an idea what we’re talking about.
 
I’m not sure why we still go through the exercise of adding up all the salaries leaving the team as if that’s any indication of future payroll space.

Can someone do the legwork of adding up the guaranteed money and a few rough arb projections? Then we have an idea what we’re talking about.

To get some feeling for what's available. I made no effort to frame the numbers as any sort of exact estimate - simply ballparking things. Those numbers included the raises due Acuna and Albies plus bumps for Fried and Dansby. If you replace Flowers, Duvall, and Markakis with players making the minimum in Contreras, Pache, and Waters there's around $9 million in there for arbitration raises.

You love shouting people down - why don't you do the legwork yourself?
 
To get some feeling for what's available. I made no effort to frame the numbers as any sort of exact estimate - simply ballparking things. Those numbers included the raises due Acuna and Albies plus bumps for Fried and Dansby. If you replace Flowers, Duvall, and Markakis with players making the minimum in Contreras, Pache, and Waters there's around $9 million in there for arbitration raises.

You love shouting people down - why don't you do the legwork yourself?


I think he is right. Instead of projecting what the Braves have to spend by using expiring contracts. You are better served adding the guaranteed contracts/arb salaries and then getting difference from a projected opening day budget.

The real debate is how much the opening day budget will be. Liberty is already thinking of selling the battery. The debt the team took on this is going to crush this team. It is a tremendous asset when the team is playing well and the battery is full. But when it is like this the team will suffer.

So I am predicting that the budget for opening day next year will be far less than 160 million.
 
To get some feeling for what's available. I made no effort to frame the numbers as any sort of exact estimate - simply ballparking things. Those numbers included the raises due Acuna and Albies plus bumps for Fried and Dansby. If you replace Flowers, Duvall, and Markakis with players making the minimum in Contreras, Pache, and Waters there's around $9 million in there for arbitration raises.

You love shouting people down - why don't you do the legwork yourself?

They have 67.5 m guaranteed. I think they'll pick up O'Day's option so that will put them at 70.5m.


I'm not good at estimating arbitration figures and I'm not sure I'm right about the Braves picking these up, but let's call it:

Swanson 5m
Duvall 5.25m
Jackson 2.9 m
Camargo 2.7m
Minter 1m
Dayton 1m

Up to about 90m. Call it a minimum of 97m (filling out with minimum players)




Folty 9m? Folty is the big question of the offseason. You could see them simply decline arbitration and let him go. I'd guess they would go to arbitration and then see how he looks in Spring Training and make a quick decision.

Newcomb - He might be Arb eligible. Not quite sure with the demotion. Certainly, you would pick up his arb1.
 
Good to see Tomlin getting a start. Hopefully he can go from bullpen gold to rotation gold without too many bumps along the way. We definitely need it. Even a serviceable #5 would be our #2 right now.
 
Hearing some rumblings about Derek Holland. Definitely a couple handful of pitchers I'd rather have, but he would be a better option than a few of the guys we are running out there. He at least can make it to the 5th inning.
 
To get some feeling for what's available. I made no effort to frame the numbers as any sort of exact estimate - simply ballparking things. Those numbers included the raises due Acuna and Albies plus bumps for Fried and Dansby. If you replace Flowers, Duvall, and Markakis with players making the minimum in Contreras, Pache, and Waters there's around $9 million in there for arbitration raises.

You love shouting people down - why don't you do the legwork yourself?

Because I do that legwork every single year, and I didn't start the "how much money the Braves have" discussion.

Counting up the money leaving is about the same effort as counting up the money staying, so you did the same amount of work to yield info that wasn't useful to your end goal.
 
They have 67.5 m guaranteed. I think they'll pick up O'Day's option so that will put them at 70.5m.


I'm not good at estimating arbitration figures and I'm not sure I'm right about the Braves picking these up, but let's call it:

Swanson 5m
Duvall 5.25m
Jackson 2.9 m
Camargo 2.7m
Minter 1m
Dayton 1m

Up to about 90m. Call it a minimum of 97m (filling out with minimum players)




Folty 9m? Folty is the big question of the offseason. You could see them simply decline arbitration and let him go. I'd guess they would go to arbitration and then see how he looks in Spring Training and make a quick decision.

Newcomb - He might be Arb eligible. Not quite sure with the demotion. Certainly, you would pick up his arb1.

Thank you. Arb projections now are just a ballpark guess, but since they are so small even if they are off by 25% it won't affect much.

I can easily see Camargo and Duvall getting dumped. Jackson maybe as well, but he's probably fine as a $3M durable mid-leverage BP arm.

Swanson at ~$5M for ~2 WAR is getting interesting, but he's probably coming back unless he's used in a trade to bring back a higher impact player.

As Matt said above, the real question is what the payroll figure will be. We had a pretty good feel for it in previous years, but next year is completely uncharted waters. Either way, expect AA to do what he has done...grab impact players on short deals. Think Bauer and any RHH impact bat coming off an injury or a tanked market for some other reason looking for a prove-it 1 year deal.
 
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Wonder how many teams and if Braves are one of the teams to call Indians about Plesac and Clevenger?

Ask is likely to be WAY higher than AA is interested in paying - and I'm not so sure how comfortable the players would be about adding them after the stunt they pulled and how tough a time Freeman had with the virus.
 
Wonder how many teams and if Braves are one of the teams to call Indians about Plesac and Clevenger?

Why would the Indians do that? The options have already been burned and their clocks have stopped. They could keep them down the rest of the year and just start again next year.
 
Why would the Indians do that? The options have already been burned and their clocks have stopped. They could keep them down the rest of the year and just start again next year.

I didnt say Indians should do anything. What I posed was simply a question AND Ill bet that more than one team has called the Indians FO as to availability. And for what it is worth, Indians could/have moved both and still have a very formidable starting rotation.
 
if we are being honest, your assessment is the correct assessment for basically every pitcher taken in the top 3 rounds. At any one time how many TOR guys are there? Obviously you have to define that. Last year 11 pitchers had a 5 WAR or better, 22 a 4 or better per FanGraphs. The likelihood that anyone is going to be a top 25 pitcher in MLB is very low.

Last year you could be a top 50 pitcher with a 2 WAR or better.

Maybe that is how we should frame these things. I'm not a guru in this area at all. Based on what I've read I think most people are projecting Anderson to be a 2.5-3.5 win pitcher. Not year one, but for most of his career. Last year Soroka was a 4 and Fried a 3. That probably sounds really low to people, but I'd kill for a 2 Win pitcher right now.

you're correct.
very few pitchers are drafted and projected to be TOR starters. it's kind of foolish to project unless we're talking about a Strasburg type talent, and they're rare. most pitchers taken in the FIRST round don't project to be that.
 
I didnt say Indians should do anything. What I posed was simply a question AND Ill bet that more than one team has called the Indians FO as to availability. And for what it is worth, Indians could/have moved both and still have a very formidable starting rotation.

Would you be willing to give up Pache or Waters plus for one of them? That's likely going to be the ask.
 
Think Bauer and any RHH impact bat coming off an injury or a tanked market for some other reason looking for a prove-it 1 year deal.

Wonder if the Braves and Ozuna might just decide to run it back again on another one-year deal. Hard to see him pulling a Donaldson and re-building his value in a nonsense season like this one. The bat's still there, but the early small sample defensive numbers seem pretty ugly. Assuming the NL gets the DH full time starting this off-season, it might make sense for both sides to sign another one-year deal for similar money with the intention of transitioning Ozuna to a mostly DH role.
 
Wonder if the Braves and Ozuna might just decide to run it back again on another one-year deal. Hard to see him pulling a Donaldson and re-building his value in a nonsense season like this one. The bat's still there, but the early small sample defensive numbers seem pretty ugly. Assuming the NL gets the DH full time starting this off-season, it might make sense for both sides to sign another one-year deal for similar money with the intention of transitioning Ozuna to a mostly DH role.

Ozuna is a likable presence it seems to me. He's not killing it or anything, but I think it's been a good pickup.
 
Bauer would be a good get. Assuming Soroka comes back with no problems...should be fine. Anderson will be up and surely blew could get a 5 between all the others.
 
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