SP options

jpx7 said:
The Seager/Walker package still seems really intriguing, and potentially a way to save on prospect-cost if the Braves are willing to absorb a lot of Seager's salary (about $4m left on his 2020 prorata, plus $18.5m in 2021, and a $15m 2022 team-option that becomes a player-option if he's traded).

Walker's got a 4.95 fip and a 4.81 xfip, but his walk-rate's been solid (2.67 bb/9), and even if he starts pitching closer to that fip/xfip (4.00 era currently), he's still likely an upgrade to the Braves in-house options in the rotation. If you generously think he keeps pitching to close out the season as well as he has heretofore, and figure 0.3 war, that means he'd be worth about 2.5m in SV after accounting for the ~$300k owed him over the final month of the season.

Seager is harder to price, because a lot depends on whether you think he's closer to the 2.9 war player he was in 2019 (much less the 5.8 war/162 player he's pacing this year), or the 1.7/1.2 war player ZiPS projects him in 2021/2022. It's the difference between his contract being under water, or having some surplus. Given his age (33), and three-year production prior to this season (3.5, 1.5, 2.9), I'd be skeptical of a value over 4.0 war for the remainder of 2020 plus 2021–22—but let's be generous and say 5.0, since he does seem to genuinely be hitting well this season (.280 babip isn't crazy; .380 woba but .391 xwoba, so he's actually been a tad unlucky), or SV of around $7.5m.

For the combined package, that's $10m SV making pretty generous assumptions about the players the Mariners would be trading; add in $10m from the Mariners, bringing the total outlay from ~$45m to ~$35m, and you're at $20m in value. That's about in-line with a 50 FV prospect in Bryce Wilson's range, though some 35/40 FV sweetening would probably be necessary. Maybe they'd be have interest in a flier on a guy like Trey Harris or Patrick Weigel, each of whom probably doesn't have a future in Atlanta (the former because of the surfeit of good young OFs, the latter because of the tea-leaves: namely, that the Braves still haven't called him up at this point).
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That's why I think there's a deal with them AA could make today - and that he could push it even farther and really "fix things" by going further with them. If your numbers line-up (not questioning them at all) and you could get Seager and Walker for Wilson and Weigel, why not keep going? With Seager and Ozuna here, there's no reason not to move Riley IMO. What would AA need to package with him to get Gonzales included in the deal? That would give you your top 3 rotation spots for 2021 under control for cheap, meaning you could start talking to Ozuna about coming back now.

If Riley, Touki, Wilson, and Weigel nets you Seager, Gonzales, and Walker and a chunk of money to pay Seager with I think I'd have to pull the trigger on that immediately - you'd still have the option of bringing Folty back to replace Walker in 2022 and Wright/Anderson/Newk/Davidson/De La Cruz/Muller to battle for the 4th and 5th spots if you don't.
 
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clvclv said:
That's why I think there's a deal with them AA could make today - and that he could push it even farther and really "fix things" by going further with them. If your numbers line-up (not questioning them at all) and you could get Seager and Walker for Wilson and Weigel, why not keep going? With Seager and Ozuna here, there's no reason not to move Riley IMO. What would AA need to package with him to get Gonzales included in the deal? That would give you your top 3 rotation spots for 2021 under control for cheap, meaning you could start talking to Ozuna about coming back now.

If Riley, Touki, Wilson, and Weigel nets you Seager, Gonzales, and Walker and a chunk of money to pay Seager with I think I'd have to pull the trigger on that immediately - you'd still have the option of bringing Folty back to replace Walker in 2022 and Wright/Anderson/Newk/Davidson/De La Cruz/Muller to battle for the 4th and 5th spots if you don't.
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I see your angle, but I think—especially in this weird abbreviated topsy-turvy season—the more complicated the deal is, the less likely it is to get done. Gonzales was a 3.7 war pitcher in 2019, who's pitching even better this season, and he's signed very affordably through 2025. That's a lot more surplus value, which moreover requires Seattle to have pretty high valuations of Riley and Toussaint. Just throwing some quick math out there, assuming Gonzales can average 2.5 war over the life of his current contract, that's another $67.5m in SV you're adding onto the package; even if you think they still see Riley as 55 FV and Toussaint as 50 FV, that's only getting you to around $60m SV—and, again, that's assuming the shine isn't off either of those guys for the Mariners.

Personally, I (a) doubt that they'd still value Riley and Toussaint quite that high; and (b), given (a), would rather just hold onto those guys and see if they can turn the corner.

Relegating the trade to just Seager and Walker keeps everything much cleaner: it's a simple salary-dump of a guy who can be the strong-side of a 3B platoon, with either Camargo or Riley, along with the cheap expiring contract of a innings-eating back-end starter. In exchange, the Mariners would get a young, reasonably high-floor 50 FV pitcher and one or two fliers.
 
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We are not getting Gonzales. He’s very good with a ton of control.

We need the mariners to realize they suck and want to cut money.

I think Seager is over paid. Better than our current guys by a ton. If the mariners want two solid guys like Wilson and weigel I’d want them to take Enders money.
 
Gonzales has a great contract, doubt he's traded unless it's a haul. We dont have a ton of long-term money so we could take on Seager's deal. He is by far better than any 3B we have though. AA will for sure make some move, he's always creative in trades.
 
Heyward said:
Gonzales has a great contract, doubt he's traded unless it's a haul. We dont have a ton of long-term money so we could take on Seager's deal. He is by far better than any 3B we have though. AA will for sure make some move, he's always creative in trades.
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Gonzales is basically just a left handed version of Julio Teheran's contract.

The Mariners would be smart to move it while there are multiple years of cheap control remaining and he's pitching well. He doesn't have great stuff and the year of control the club bought probably is going to be underwater a bit. Best case is that he's still a useful innings guy that you are only mildly overpaying at the end. Like Teheran.

Worst case is he's unplayable by the time you get there.

That said, he's really cheap for the next three years.
 
Marco is for the most part, steady. Something the rotation could definitely use. Moving forward there are what 2 SP you can count on? Soroka and Fried. If the price is right adding Gonzales makes a lot of sense.
 
Enscheff said:
I WANT ANDERSON!!
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Wonder if Chacin's thrown the ball well enough lately in Gwinnett to take the start tomorrow night to buy Anderson one or two extra days?

Bad enough to toss him into the fire in Yankee Stadium (even with their depleted offense right now), but can they possibly feel good enough about Anderson to have him take that start AND face Cole? Or maybe the reason they changed their minds and didn't name the Tuesday starter is that they're considering asking Fried to move up a day so Anderson gets Tanaka instead - even though they didn't exactly "knock him around", the offense did get Tanaka out of the game after 4 innings last time they saw him.
 
Enscheff said:
He can't be any less ready than anyone not named Max Fried.
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True. But why haven’t Davidson and weigel has a shot? Both already on the 40 man.

Even if they suck they still are better than the retreads we are throwing out there. We control both of those guys to damn near 30 already
 
Russ2dollas said:
True. But why haven’t Davidson and weigel has a shot? Both already on the 40 man.

Even if they suck they still are better than the retreads we are throwing out there. We control both of those guys to damn near 30 already
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Because I don’t give 2 ****s about Davidson and Weigel. I want to see if Anderson is a legit impact MLB arm or not.
 
All the noise about getting Seager reminds me of the archives buried somewhere of all the posts wanting us to get Lucroy somehow or other. Im surprised there is still a franchise in Atlanta without him.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
All the noise about getting Seager reminds me of the archives buried somewhere of all the posts wanting us to get Lucroy somehow or other. Im surprised there is still a franchise in Atlanta without him.
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This version is way more logic-premised and way less thirst-trap. Seager’s not all-world, but he fills two needs (3B, LHH), he should be prospect-cheap (due to pricey contract), and he plays for a cellar-dweller. That’s why the speculation’s been there—both on this board and in the national media.
 
Morosi says Reds are 50/50 to trade Bauer, Rangers likely to move Lynn - mentions AA is likely in on both.
 
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