its decent
GDT 9/9/20 - Albies Returns
- Thread starter Slippyjms
- Start date
its decent
Southcack77
Well-known member
Depending on the makeup of next season's team, even average vs RHP could be fine. His defense plays every day.
Feels like having a LH platoon mate still makes sense though.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I agree it could get better. I expect it to get better.
Even with his hot streak I do not see a 333+ OBP player. Do y'all?
If he's going to be a real impact player he's got to get the OBP into the 350 range yearly. B/c I don't see him slugging 550 or anything like that.
Duvall is a plus defender in left but nowhere else. The stats bear that out.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I think my point is as a 23 year old still improving we simply don’t know yet if he could end up being that guy.
PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Just for consideration: In 2014 one of the reasons Gattis was traded was because everyone thought Bethancourt would be a better choice because Gattis lacked strength on defense. Traded before even reaching arb years. IMO Riley is at least good enough for 2 more years of development considering the already strong lineup under control for a long long time in the future.
The last 30 days for Austin
BB: 6.9%
K: 16.8%
ISO: .194
BABIP: .306
That puts his slash line at 280/337/473 - 113 WRC+
Now last 30 days is an arbitrary sample size number but that 16.8% K rate is significantly less than any monthly split he's had for it in his career so far.
Going forward my best guess right now would be for the BB% to stay the same, the K% to go up and the ISO to go up as well. With the end result somewhere in the ~110 WRC+ range.
BB: 6.9%
K: 16.8%
ISO: .194
BABIP: .306
That puts his slash line at 280/337/473 - 113 WRC+
Now last 30 days is an arbitrary sample size number but that 16.8% K rate is significantly less than any monthly split he's had for it in his career so far.
Going forward my best guess right now would be for the BB% to stay the same, the K% to go up and the ISO to go up as well. With the end result somewhere in the ~110 WRC+ range.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
Ortiz became an elite hitter at 27. Duvall is 32.
Duvall is currently sporting a HR/FB rate of 27.7%. If maintained over a full 162 game season that would make him a Top 10 power hitter in all of baseball. Are people really being fooled yet again by unsustainable streaks? Or have we realized that Duvall is the same low OBP guy who relies on power output to be useful, and he is currently in the middle of an unsustainable stretch?
Of all Braves with 100+ PAs he is the most lucky hitter in terms of xwOBA (Riley is the unluckiest, and has made real improvements in 2020).
It's awesome that Duvall has run into a bunch of HRs the last month, but let's not get carried away here. He is definitely a good option for a cheap OF, but he's still the same guy he's been:
5.2% BB rate
28.1% K rate
94.5 mph EV on FB/LD (down from 97.1 in 2019)
53.4% FB rate
Literally nothing has changed other than the results in a 100 PA sample.
Of all Braves with 100+ PAs he is the most lucky hitter in terms of xwOBA (Riley is the unluckiest, and has made real improvements in 2020).
It's awesome that Duvall has run into a bunch of HRs the last month, but let's not get carried away here. He is definitely a good option for a cheap OF, but he's still the same guy he's been:
5.2% BB rate
28.1% K rate
94.5 mph EV on FB/LD (down from 97.1 in 2019)
53.4% FB rate
Literally nothing has changed other than the results in a 100 PA sample.
That's pretty much a RHH Jake Lamb, and it would be awesome if Riley maintained this progress.
I kept saying I never saw a case of someone improving their contact skill as much as Riley needed to (no real way to search it other than guess names and look), and now it looks like we might be seeing it happen in real time.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I didn’t say it was exactly the same case. Duvall still hasn’t ever gotten the chance to be an everyday player in his career until now and his health is finally under control. It’s just been fun to watch. And I’m enjoying being a homer about it personally. Also it was obviously sarcasm more than anything. Of course I don’t think Duvall is gonna be Ortiz.
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zbhargrove
Well-known member
I’m not being fooled. That’s why I was asking about it. I am not at a place where I can look up the deep dive stats at the moment... hence the reason I was asking if anyone had looked into his numbers. I just found it fascinating that he’s killing RHP this year after we assumed he was basically only a platoon option.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I think that’s a fair assessment. And I’d be thrilled if he turned into that.
Duval had 600+ PAs in both 2016 and 2017, where he was the exact same hitter he is right now...minus an inflated HR/FB rate.
Folks are basing their opinion of Duvall over a sample size of 135 PAs by looking at stats that don't come anywhere close to stabilizing in that small sample size.
Then talking about his 2020 stats vs RHP is an even smaller and more meaningless sample size.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Look, Riley and Duvall are elite and the stats show it. Better?
speaking of real time improvements. That Acuna BB%
We are seeing all Acuna's swing rates decreasing, which suggests to me he is getting into that phase where he is becoming selective...and then murdering the good pitches he gets.
His GB% is going down, his FB% is going up, and his LD% is staying flat.
Acuna might be turning into the best non-Soto hitter (Soto is scary good with a BB rate higher than his K rate to go along with massive power) in baseball at age 22.
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PawPawMaxwell
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Off topic but has anyone seen info about Acuna's little brother? He is or has already been close to signing time.