2020 Field

There are a couple good blogs on early voting in Nevada, which has been their main way of voting for a while now.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

https://nevadaearlyvote.com/f/slow-day-so-im-talking-trends---october-23rd-update

This graph from Clark County (Las Vegas) is interesting.

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The raw votes from Clark show 67,000 more Dems voting. At the same point in 2016, their lead was 40,000. The Dems get their margins from Clark and Washoe (Reno) counties. The GOP from the rural counties that make up the rest of the state.
 
acesfull86 said:
I think a little prediction humility is in order given how wrong most were in 2016, but giving Trump better than 50-50 feels overly generous, IMO
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Polls werent off nearly as much as fake posters like Sturg and thethe want you to believe. Many projections dont distinguish between popular vote and electoral college because until recently it was an extremely rare occurrence. The polls that got it wrong according to the fake posters predicted Hillary would win the popular vote by 2-4 points. Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1%. The ones that actually showed Trump winning had him winning the popular vote which put them several points off the polls the fake posters claim were wrong. The largest variance by state I am aware of was 6% in places like Wisconsin where Hillary lost to Bernie in the primaries after being supposedly up 20 points. If anything the polls were more than 3 times more biased against Bernie than Trump if we want to go there.
 
acesfull86 said:
To be fair, people were saying the exact same thing (the Republican party was no longer viable at a national level because demographic trends were all going against them) from Obama's 2012 win until about 5:00 PM ET on election night in 2016.

Then Trump won.

I think he'll lose this time around due to 202 being a total ****show for him, not because of demographic trends. I think he would have won the election if it was held in November of 2019.
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After every election the victorious party condescendingly tells the other side they need to move close to the center to win in the future. Republicans have dont a very good job of combating the shifting demographics with Gerrymandering and voter suppression in the traditionally red states. Thats only going to last so long. The days of them winning the popular vote are over. 2016 was a perfect storm for them and it was still one of the closest elections we have ever had. 2 of their last 3 Presedential wins were highly controversial and even if you dont agree with that they were wins by the slimmest of margins. The political pendulum usually swings the other way after a 2 term President. The incumbent party generally has to do very well to have much of a chance. They tried to shove Hillary down the countries throat and it backfired on them. Bernie would have won easily imo.
 
"lock up the Bidens, lock up Hillary"


Trump at a rally in Georgia this weekend. How many days ago was the interview President Snowflake walked out of where he said he would never say something like that. Lol
 
Runnin said:
Is that worse than talking about your own daughter like a piece of ass?
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You tell us. Go download some kiddie porn and tell the judge it’s no different than saying your daughter looks good after you get caught. Let us know how it turns out
 
Krgrecw said:
You tell us. Go download some kiddie porn and tell the judge it’s no different than saying your daughter looks good after you get caught. Let us know how it turns out
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Then why hasn't he been arrested???

If Rudy Giuliani is keeping the hard drive with what you confidently call kiddie porn, shouldn't he be arrested?
 
Krgrecw said:
You tell us. Go download some kiddie porn and tell the judge it’s no different than saying your daughter looks good after you get caught. Let us know how it turns out
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Quick Google search doesnt bring up anything about this from anyone who isnt a Trump loyalist. We can speculate there are pictures of Hunter shooting heroin on the moon all we want. The people saying it have no credibility whatsoever. That this stuff is coming out with no time for vetting isnt an a coincidence.
 
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