Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

[50PoundHead]

i would much rather AA wait and try and get a much better player on a 1-year deal than go with this plan.

Anthopoulos did jump the market and some like that and some don't. I'm basically neutral. But given where things are at across the market right now, I think patience is in order. Still waiting on the DH decision (which could happen this week in conjunction with the Winter Meetings) and once that step is taken one way or the other, my guess is the market on bats will move quite quickly. I think it's time to keep one's powder dry (after drafting Maitan of course).

 

[salmagundy]

I see Shaw's name mentioned frequently as a platoon guy for Riley. I am confused about the reasoning behind those thoughts.

According to EPSN, Shaw as a LHH has reverse splits against RHP/LHP. He has an Avg of .295 vs LHP and .219 vs RHP. OBP ..326/.299, Slg .409/.412 and OPS .735/.710(LHH/RHH)

Would some one clear up my confusion please.

 

[clvclv]

Anthopoulos did jump the market and some like that and some don't. I'm basically neutral. But given where things are at across the market right now, I think patience is in order. Still waiting on the DH decision (which could happen this week in conjunction with the Winter Meetings) and once that step is taken one way or the other, my guess is the market on bats will move quite quickly. I think it's time to keep one's powder dry (after drafting Maitan of course).

Rosenthal says that NL teams have been instructed to assume that there will be no DH in 2021. (Just mentioned on XM - the memo came from MLB last week according to Ken's most recent Athletic article.)

Get out the checkbook Liberty - Springer will be even more expensive now.

 

[Carp]

I see Shaw's name mentioned frequently as a platoon guy for Riley. I am confused about the reasoning behind those thoughts.

According to EPSN, Shaw as a LHH has reverse splits against RHP/LHP. He has an Avg of .295 vs LHP and .219 vs RHP. OBP ..326/.299, Slg .409/.412 and OPS .735/.710(LHH/RHH)

Would some one clear up my confusion please.

Yeah Shaw was a decent option a couple years ago, but he's been pretty awful the last 2 years no matter who is pitching. He's not even someone on my radar honestly.

 

[Carp]

i would much rather AA wait and try and get a much better player on a 1-year deal than go with this plan.

Yup. That's pretty weak sauce, and I'm even a Pederson fan.

You can platoon LF and upgrade 3b. Or you can platoon 3b (or give Riley a chance at FT duty) and upgrade LF. But you can ill afford to do both. With the DH potentially gone, you can't risk having those spots giving you barely average production, especially with Pache as a virtual unknown offensively.

 

[Super]

Anthopoulos did jump the market and some like that and some don't. I'm basically neutral. But given where things are at across the market right now, I think patience is in order. Still waiting on the DH decision (which could happen this week in conjunction with the Winter Meetings) and once that step is taken one way or the other, my guess is the market on bats will move quite quickly. I think it's time to keep one's powder dry (after drafting Maitan of course).

yeah. it's all situational. AA obviously felt the money for those two pitchers was tolerable and so he jumped on it.
there's really no reason at all right now to jump quickly at signing those guys mentioned, tho. if that's the route AA ends up needing to go, he'll have similar options to those guys, maybe save Job, pretty much all offseason. i feel he could always pivot to that sort of plan. but being patient for a bopper instead has a much higher potential payoff.

 

[clvclv]

Yup. That's pretty weak sauce, and I'm even a Pederson fan.

You can platoon LF and upgrade 3b. Or you can platoon 3b (or give Riley a chance at FT duty) and upgrade LF. But you can ill afford to do both. With the DH potentially gone, you can't risk having those spots giving you barely average production, especially with Pache as a virtual unknown offensively.

Probably time to bite the bullet and give Ozuna what it takes and just deal with his defense until the late innings for 2021. He can move to DH next year when Waters comes up - assuming a strike doesn't wipe out the whole season.

AA (obviously) may have more money available to spend than we imagined, but he doesn't likely have enough to get into a bidding war with the Mutts, Jays, and whomever else for Springer. Give Ozuna 4 years/$72 million if that's what it's going to take and get the big bat off your plate already - if there's anything left use it to upgrade the pen and/or rotation/bench. If there's enough to add Turner on top of that, figure out what to do with Riley at that point.

 

[Enscheff]

Yeah Shaw was a decent option a couple years ago, but he's been pretty awful the last 2 years no matter who is pitching. He's not even someone on my radar honestly.

This is simply not true.

Despite a rough K rate, Shaw's 2019 numbers were torpedoed by a fluky .216 BABIP. His 2020 saw some correction in the K rate, and an xwOBA vs RHP of .321, which is pretty much MLB average.

The idea with Shaw was not to give him 400+ PAs vs RHP unless Riley fell flat on his face. The idea with Shaw was to add a cheap MLB hitter that could compliment Riley a bit, and potentially take over if Riley regressed. Riley would still get his shot early in 2021 to see if he continued to improve.

Shaw and his average-ish statcast numbers vs RHP (.315 and .321 xwOBA the last 2 years) would replace Camargo and his horrid statcast numbers vs RHP (.272 and .238) as Riley's caddy at 3B. Camargo is so bad I don't see any reason to keep him on an MLB roster. I am legitimately surprised he was tendered a contract at all.

 

[Enscheff]

Camargo literally can't do anything other than hit LHP a little bit.

I mean seriously, even his trimmed down version was so unathletic he was only faster than Matt Adams, Flowers and Sandoval. Camargo is slower than Markakis and Freeman. This idea he is some sort of athletic super-sub is comical.

All Camargo brings to the table is a strong arm and some super weird cockiness rooted in the presence of a silly looking nose piecing.

 

[UNCBlue012]

Camargo literally can't do anything other than hit LHP a little bit.

I mean seriously, even his trimmed down version was so unathletic he was only faster than Matt Adams, Flowers and Sandoval. Camargo is slower than Markakis and Freeman. This idea he is some sort of athletic super-sub is comical.

All Camargo brings to the table is a strong arm and some super weird cockiness rooted in the presence of a silly looking nose piecing.

He's also super hot. #NoHomo

 

[clvclv]

This is simply not true.

Despite a rough K rate, Shaw's 2019 numbers were torpedoed by a fluky .216 BABIP. His 2020 saw some correction in the K rate, and an xwOBA vs RHP of .321, which is pretty much MLB average.

The idea with Shaw was not to give him 400+ PAs vs RHP unless Riley fell flat on his face. The idea with Shaw was to add a cheap MLB hitter that could compliment Riley a bit, and potentially take over if Riley regressed. Riley would still get his shot early in 2021 to see if he continued to improve.

Shaw and his average-ish statcast numbers vs RHP (.315 and .321 xwOBA the last 2 years) would replace Camargo and his horrid statcast numbers vs RHP (.272 and .238) as Riley's caddy at 3B. Camargo is so bad I don't see any reason to keep him on an MLB roster. I am legitimately surprised he was tendered a contract at all.

The only "reason" that would seem to make any sense would be that if AA has to pinch pennies somewhere Camargo can a) serve as Riley's caddy/platoon-mate, b.) be the utility IF, and c.) signed for significantly less than the projections called for.

The positions are technically on his resume, he occasionally stands at the plate from the left side (hits is too strong a term), and since he signed cheap and Dansby plays so much you can say you didn't need to devote more resources to a backup SS. He's cheaper than spending a million bucks on a backup for BOTH Dansby and Riley - particularly if you're going to give Riley another prove it year. Keeping him "saves" ~ $3.5 million over signing Shaw and a veteran defensive-minded SS, so that's money you can give to Melancon or another veteran RP. Dump Jackson and you've probably got enough to cover that salary, leaving the rest to spend on LF.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

Reds traded Iglesias to the Angels

They must really be in a financial crisis

Angels traded for Jose Iglesias last week, Raisel Iglesias today....the next Iglesias they are about to sign...?

 

[Carp]

This is simply not true.

Despite a rough K rate, Shaw's 2019 numbers were torpedoed by a fluky .216 BABIP. His 2020 saw some correction in the K rate, and an xwOBA vs RHP of .321, which is pretty much MLB average.

The idea with Shaw was not to give him 400+ PAs vs RHP unless Riley fell flat on his face. The idea with Shaw was to add a cheap MLB hitter that could compliment Riley a bit, and potentially take over if Riley regressed. Riley would still get his shot early in 2021 to see if he continued to improve.

Shaw and his average-ish statcast numbers vs RHP (.315 and .321 xwOBA the last 2 years) would replace Camargo and his horrid statcast numbers vs RHP (.272 and .238) as Riley's caddy at 3B. Camargo is so bad I don't see any reason to keep him on an MLB roster. I am legitimately surprised he was tendered a contract at all.

I'm not sure why you're so into xwOBA all of a sudden as a be-all/end-all stat. But Shaw was pretty awful vs RHP the last 2 seasons. Call it luck if you want to, but the stats are the stats, and he's missing the ball more than he was 3-4 years ago as well. He had a wRC+ of 47 and 95 respectively the last 2 seasons with the vast majority of his at bats coming against RHP. This to go along with a hard hit% that is in a 3 year decline. To add to that, he'll be 31 next year, so not exactly a period you expect to see big improvement. Considering he's supposed to be the strong side of a platoon, that is hardly something to get excited about.

But he is likely better than Camargo, I'll give you that. That's hardly a big feat however.

 

[Enscheff]

I'm not sure why you're so into xwOBA all of a sudden as a be-all/end-all stat. But Shaw was pretty awful vs RHP the last 2 seasons. Call it luck if you want to, but the stats are the stats, and he's missing the ball more than he was 3-4 years ago as well. He had a wRC+ of 47 and 95 respectively the last 2 seasons with the vast majority of his at bats coming against RHP. This to go along with a hard hit% that is in a 3 year decline. To add to that, he'll be 31 next year, so not exactly a period you expect to see big improvement. Considering he's supposed to be the strong side of a platoon, that is hardly something to get excited about.

But he is likely better than Camargo, I'll give you that. That's hardly a big feat however.

My opinion that xwOBA is the best predictive stat available is not "all of a sudden". I have literally based most of my views about players on that stat for several years now across hundreds of posts. You may want to consider sample sizes when quoting stats like wRC+, which are much more volatile than stats like xwOBA. Hint: the sample sizes for Shaw the last 2 years are not very large.

Again, I don't think anyone is championing Shaw as the strong side of any platoon. I literally wrote in the post you quoted, "The idea with Shaw was not to give him 400+ PAs vs RHP unless Riley fell flat on his face. The idea with Shaw was to add a cheap MLB hitter that could compliment Riley a bit, and potentially take over if Riley regressed. Riley would still get his shot early in 2021 to see if he continued to improve."

The choice comes down to Camargo at $1.4M as a terrible backup to Riley vs Shaw at ~$3M(?) as a competent backup to Riley (especially vs RHP). I know what I'd choose if the payroll is there, and the choice would be easy. Riley deserves a chance to continue improving, but I sure as heck don't want Camargo as the backup plan in case Riley regresses after ~200 PAs in 2021 and is dragging down a team with championship aspirations.

Additionally, Shaw is a "for example" name thrown out there as a cheap and competent compliment to Riley to serve as insurance at 3B. There are probably other names I can't think of that would fill that role as well. Camargo isn't even that, and while clv has a point that Camargo can serve as a utility IF for a poor team, the hope is that the Smyly and Morton deals indicate the Braves aren't a poor team that needs to suffer with a guy like Camargo on the roster. If the Braves can't afford a competent corner IFer as well as a competent backup SS on the bench, then AA probably messed up giving Smyly $11M so early in the off season.

 

[Enscheff]

Well this is amusing: https://www.mlb.com/news/kris-bryant-trade-fits

Braves get Bryant in exchange for Muller, Newk and Riley. The article says the Braves say no, but doesn't really do justice to just how over the top that offer would be.

Then it suggests Bryant to the Dodgers for Taylor and DJ peters...which they also say the Dodgers wouldn't agree to.

So why in the world would they even mention the Braves deal which is roughly 2x as much value of the Dodgers package? Bryant is probably worth one of Riley or Newk...certainly not both plus a lottery ticket arm.

The moronic overvaluation of Kris Bryant continues...

 

[NYCBrave]

Well this is amusing: https://www.mlb.com/news/kris-bryant-trade-fits

Braves get Bryant in exchange for Muller, Newk and Riley. The article says the Braves say no, but doesn't really do justice to just how over the top that offer would be.

Then it suggests Bryant to the Dodgers for Taylor and DJ peters...which they also say the Dodgers wouldn't agree to.

So why in the world would they even mention the Braves deal which is roughly 2x as much value of the Dodgers package? Bryant is probably worth one of Riley or Newk...certainly not both plus a lottery ticket arm.

The moronic overvaluation of Kris Bryant continues...

One of the reasons I gave up reading MLB.com articles years ago. Their articles are tailored to the common fan who doesn't know any better, which I guess a good portion of most fan bases.

 

[TheBravos]

Well this is amusing: https://www.mlb.com/news/kris-bryant-trade-fits

Braves get Bryant in exchange for Muller, Newk and Riley. The article says the Braves say no, but doesn't really do justice to just how over the top that offer would be.

Then it suggests Bryant to the Dodgers for Taylor and DJ peters...which they also say the Dodgers wouldn't agree to.

So why in the world would they even mention the Braves deal which is roughly 2x as much value of the Dodgers package? Bryant is probably worth one of Riley or Newk...certainly not both plus a lottery ticket arm.

The moronic overvaluation of Kris Bryant continues...

I still remember Bryant sticking his arm out to get hit against the Braves(and it not getting called). That’s all I need to know about him. Big game situation with runners on and that is what’s going thru his mind. I don’t think he’s worth the money.

These writers always come up with trade deals that would have us paying thru the nose....yet it’s always different for the Dodgers or Yankees etc.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I still remember Bryant sticking his arm out to get hit against the Braves(and it not getting called). That’s all I need to know about him. Big game situation with runners on and that is what’s going thru his mind. I don’t think he’s worth the money.

These writers always come up with trade deals that would have us paying thru the nose....yet it’s always different for the Dodgers or Yankees etc.

Not writers. Bloggers

 

[50PoundHead]

Reds traded Iglesias to the Angels

They must really be in a financial crisis

Angels traded for Jose Iglesias last week, Raisel Iglesias today....the next Iglesias they are about to sign...?

The Angles are going to need one more Iglesias if the want to get up to Fluffy's weight. Seriously, I love Fluffy's act. Great comedian.

 

[Carp]

My opinion that xwOBA is the best predictive stat available is not "all of a sudden". I have literally based most of my views about players on that stat for several years now across hundreds of posts. You may want to consider sample sizes when quoting stats like wRC+, which are much more volatile than stats like xwOBA. Hint: the sample sizes for Shaw the last 2 years are not very large.

Again, I don't think anyone is championing Shaw as the strong side of any platoon. I literally wrote in the post you quoted, "The idea with Shaw was not to give him 400+ PAs vs RHP unless Riley fell flat on his face. The idea with Shaw was to add a cheap MLB hitter that could compliment Riley a bit, and potentially take over if Riley regressed. Riley would still get his shot early in 2021 to see if he continued to improve."

The choice comes down to Camargo at $1.4M as a terrible backup to Riley vs Shaw at ~$3M(?) as a competent backup to Riley (especially vs RHP). I know what I'd choose if the payroll is there, and the choice would be easy. Riley deserves a chance to continue improving, but I sure as heck don't want Camargo as the backup plan in case Riley regresses after ~200 PAs in 2021 and is dragging down a team with championship aspirations.

Additionally, Shaw is a "for example" name thrown out there as a cheap and competent compliment to Riley to serve as insurance at 3B. There are probably other names I can't think of that would fill that role as well. Camargo isn't even that, and while clv has a point that Camargo can serve as a utility IF for a poor team, the hope is that the Smyly and Morton deals indicate the Braves aren't a poor team that needs to suffer with a guy like Camargo on the roster. If the Braves can't afford a competent corner IFer as well as a competent backup SS on the bench, then AA probably messed up giving Smyly $11M so early in the off season.

Forgive me, I just haven't seen you reference xwOBA much before your most recent posts on Riley. And your position on Riley seems like a complete 180 of your opinion on him from a couple months ago.

I guess I should have been a little more clear. Shaw is definitely a better back-up than our current options. As a pure bench bat, I would most certainly welcome Shaw. But he has been pretty awful the last 2 seasons as anything more than a bench player. He simply isn't someone I want platooning with Riley.