true and fair. just dreaming...
Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread
- Thread starter clvclv
- Start date
true and fair. just dreaming...
DJ has been pretty average outside of Yankee stadium. He's built for that park. And he's already 32. No reason to take on that risk.
Given the current craziness everywhere else around the league this is probably the time it's worth pondering for the first time though. While it's still pretty unrealistic to expect a big deal for someone who's already making money (Harper/Lindor/etc.), it's probably at least worth wondering whether he'd finally cash several chips in if a deal for a difference-maker that's affordable for a few years that would give us multiple shots at winning while you've still got Acuna/Albies/Fried/Soroka/Anderson in place and all signs point to Freddie accepting a reasonable extension.
If there ever was a time to back up the truck for a Jose Ramirez/Suarez/Chapman/Devers type, this is probably that time.
If you assume 12 WAR of the next 4 years, then Suarez has somewhere between 62-75 million in surplus value. Let's take a look at possible packages.
It's hard to know how Riley is valued, but it's safe to assume at this point that it is likely less than what he was valued as a 55 FV prospect. Given his age and potential, I'll assign him 20 million in surplus value. The Reds may not value Riley this highly with Senzel able to step into 3b, and may target other players/prospects. Nevertheless, he is a potential piece of a package and would be a fit in a potential Suarez trade.
Waters has somehow fallen to a 50 FV grade since January, despite there not being a minor league season. Still, I would think given the graduation of some of the prospects ahead of him, he would still remain among the top 50 prospects. This means he has roughly 30 million in FV. Waters can play any OF position, and his bat projects as a starter at any of the OF positions, so he is likely someone they would be high on.
So we're at 50 million in value if they want Riley as part of the package, which is getting pretty close. We could add one 50 FV pitcher like Wilson or Wright if they valued either one highly, and that package would be equal value to Suarez, or perhaps may even be a slight overpay on our part. Then again, maybe they prefer a couple lottery ticket arms like Ynoa, De la Cruz, or Davidson, instead Wilson/Wright, who are older pitchers with less control. Either way, this should cover the remaining 20ish million in surplus value to equal Suarez.
I'd be willing to bet everyone here would jump on Riley, Waters, and Wright for Suarez. That probably means the Reds feel the same way about that package that we do.
It's hard to know how Riley is valued, but it's safe to assume at this point that it is likely less than what he was valued as a 55 FV prospect. Given his age and potential, I'll assign him 20 million in surplus value. The Reds may not value Riley this highly with Senzel able to step into 3b, and may target other players/prospects. Nevertheless, he is a potential piece of a package and would be a fit in a potential Suarez trade.
Waters has somehow fallen to a 50 FV grade since January, despite there not being a minor league season. Still, I would think given the graduation of some of the prospects ahead of him, he would still remain among the top 50 prospects. This means he has roughly 30 million in FV. Waters can play any OF position, and his bat projects as a starter at any of the OF positions, so he is likely someone they would be high on.
So we're at 50 million in value if they want Riley as part of the package, which is getting pretty close. We could add one 50 FV pitcher like Wilson or Wright if they valued either one highly, and that package would be equal value to Suarez, or perhaps may even be a slight overpay on our part. Then again, maybe they prefer a couple lottery ticket arms like Ynoa, De la Cruz, or Davidson, instead Wilson/Wright, who are older pitchers with less control. Either way, this should cover the remaining 20ish million in surplus value to equal Suarez.
I'd be willing to bet everyone here would jump on Riley, Waters, and Wright for Suarez. That probably means the Reds feel the same way about that package that we do.
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50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
La Stella has never played an inning of OF as a professional. I don't know how it is anyone could think he could be plugged in out there. I could probably live with him as the 3B, but he's no great shakes anywhere on the diamond except in the batter's box.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
This winter meetings suck so far....no "insiders" there telling us what is "going on"
I do agree with your general sentiment.
However, if by "back the truck up" you mean guys like Pache and Anderson, then I completely disagree. AA should never, ever, trade prospects with impact potential. Those assets are absolutely critical to sustaining competitiveness for MLB teams.
If by "back the truck up" you mean consolidating guys who project to be 1-2 WAR players for impact MLB players, then I agree wholeheartedly. My opinion is that AA has been a bit too conservative with those types of prospects, especially when ultra-poor teams like the Rays and As value them so highly. Obviously, it's silly of me to criticize anything AA or the Dodgers do with those low end MLB players after all the success they've enjoyed doing exactly the opposite of my opinion, but I do feel like there may have been opportunities to cash in guys like Camargo, Riley, Wilson, etc for real MLB players. Instead, AA and the Dodgers seem to prefer to hold onto those guys, almost as much as poor teams like the Rays and As.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I've seen Ozuna and Gattis in LF.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Here's the thing. Sometimes teams are wrong, but all of baseball is rarely wrong. If La Stella could play OF, he would have played it before now.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
I suspect La Stella can stand in left field and handle it in a vaguely acceptable fashion -- which is to say terrible, but not literally unplayable. Kind of a tough thing for a contending team to expect of a 31-year-old infielder, though.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Most infielders can play a passable outfield with some preparation. Like Riley. Some really outstanding defensive outfielders were mostly middle infielders coming up in the minors.
La Stella is not especially athletic, so he might be an exception. My guess is he wouldn't be as good in left as Riley.
La Stella is not especially athletic, so he might be an exception. My guess is he wouldn't be as good in left as Riley.
JohnAdcox
Brian Jordan's New BFF
See, this is why the Braves need to go ahead and sign Springer and Ozuna right away. If the conversation has turned to the merits of Stella! vs Riley in left, the hot stove has gone mighty cold indeed.
Yeah - that's it in general. Anderson and Pache are untouchable at this point - I consider them "here" and important parts of the MLB roster.
I love the depth, but if you can turn Wright, Waters, and Riley into 3 years of one of the 3Bs I mentioned you just have to do it. It would really suck to see those guys turn into what we think they MIGHT somewhere else, but one of those legitimate impact 3Bs is as close to the last piece to push this club over the top as there is right now - and potentially multiple times.
correct, and it was bad, and i don't want to see it again.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
You can probably thank the loss of international picks for that. If AA makes a big-time trade and it turns out terribly for Atlanta, it could be devastating for the farm system. I totally get and agree with the sentiment but I'm guessing that's part of the thinking.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Yeah that's most likely why, outside of our top 10 prospects, the system is thin in top guys. So i dont totally blame him for it, either.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Seems like what the Dodgers do is keep younger cheap guys and put them in the best situation to succeed. Then leverage that savings elsewhere.
They don't seem to fall in love with them or try and extend them the way Coppy did with Inciarte or Teheran.
Right. Joc Pederson is a good example of this. Coppy would of extended him so hard.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
George Springer and the Mets are apparently "engaged" in talks.