Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

Enscheff said:
The difference between Pache and Waters can be summed up by a couple data points from their AA numbers in 2019.

Pache: BABIP = .351, OPS = .814
Waters: BABIP = .439, OPS = .847

Waters and his sky high BABIP barely outproduced Pache and his much more reasonable BABIP over roughly 450 PAs.

Now, obviously there are skills players possess that translate to higher sustained BABIP values, but an absurd mark of .439 should result in much higher production than a .847 OPS if the prospect truly was an impact bat.

To me, Pache is very clearly the superior prospect at this point in time.
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I think something we need to keep in mind as well is that we don’t have much data from Waters 2020 season. Has his HR power come around?
 
clvclv said:
I don't think anyone would argue that at all - the question that keeps popping up is "why does AA seem so resistant to include Waters in trade discussions?", particularly if everyone else is looking at the same information.

I have no idea unless they "see" some of those skills that just don't show up in the metrics and feel relatively certain that they're going to translate fairly soon. You could've imagined part of it was "hometown kid" bias with previous regimes, but AA doesn't seem to be swayed by that at all.
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The answer is because AA doesn’t trade away prospects that project as MLB players. He hasn’t traded away a single one, so claiming Waters is elite because he’s still here makes no sense.

Waters is a good prospect, and will probably contribute at the MLB level. That doesn’t mean he’s going to be any type of factor in 2021, and probably isn’t someone the Braves are going to plan around. Being a top prospect in a depleted system is pretty meaningless.
 
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Seems odd to me the Mets are pouring money into a season where they most likely won't have any fans in the games.
 
Enscheff said:
The answer is because AA doesn’t trade away prospects that project as MLB players. He hasn’t traded away a single one, so claiming Waters is elite because he’s still here makes no sense.

Waters is a good prospect, and will probably contribute at the MLB level. That doesn’t mean he’s going to be any type of factor in 2021, and probably isn’t someone the Braves are going to plan around. Being a top prospect in a depleted system is pretty meaningless.
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I would add that every package the Braves were mentioned with in trade included Waters or Pache and a lot more.

Asking Anthopolous to part with Waters is one thing, asking him to part with multiple prospects in a semi-depleted farm is something else.

Waters is probably a little too valuable to give away for a small or temporary piece and not valuable enough to bring back a big piece.
 
msstate7 said:
Seems odd to me the Mets are pouring money into a season where they most likely won't have any fans in the games.
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I'm not sure if it was announced publicly (I think so?), but the current plan is for MLB to have fans in the stands in 2021. Now, how many fans I guess is unclear.
 
I think the board is low on Waters. He can not be an elite guy and still be a guy you want to have on your team.

The thing we don't know is how he did at the alternate site. He faced a lot of really good arms there.

If he is a guy who can play CF well, plus in LF, and hit while cost controlled, that is really valuable. Especially next year when we will start paying Ronnie real money and likely more for Freeman.

KLaw is the lowest on Waters that I've seen. He says he has no approach, he's fast but doesn't steal and his power is not turning into HRs. I think those are all things that can get better with age and experience. Even Klaw says he has the hand eye coordination and bat speed you want.

Trading Waters for an impact player under multiple years of team control I'd support. Dumping him for 1 year of Lindor or for a 2-3 win player does not make sense to me.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I think the board is low on Waters. He can not be an elite guy and still be a guy you want to have on your team.

The thing we don't know is how he did at the alternate site. He faced a lot of really good arms there.

If he is a guy who can play CF well, plus in LF, and hit while cost controlled, that is really valuable. Especially next year when we will start paying Ronnie real money and likely more for Freeman.

KLaw is the lowest on Waters that I've seen. He says he has no approach, he's fast but doesn't steal and his power is not turning into HRs. I think those are all things that can get better with age and experience. Even Klaw says he has the hand eye coordination and bat speed you want.

Trading Waters for an impact player under multiple years of team control I'd support. Dumping him for 1 year of Lindor or for a 2-3 win player does not make sense to me.
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I don't think anyone suggests trading Waters for anything less than a controlled impact player but AA hasn't seemed willing to put him into deals at this point so he clearly hasn't found that guy.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I think the board is low on Waters. He can not be an elite guy and still be a guy you want to have on your team.

The thing we don't know is how he did at the alternate site. He faced a lot of really good arms there.

If he is a guy who can play CF well, plus in LF, and hit while cost controlled, that is really valuable. Especially next year when we will start paying Ronnie real money and likely more for Freeman.

KLaw is the lowest on Waters that I've seen. He says he has no approach, he's fast but doesn't steal and his power is not turning into HRs. I think those are all things that can get better with age and experience. Even Klaw says he has the hand eye coordination and bat speed you want.

Trading Waters for an impact player under multiple years of team control I'd support. Dumping him for 1 year of Lindor or for a 2-3 win player does not make sense to me.
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This is exactly the reason I mentioned a deal for Ian Happ earlier. Happ is exactly what we all hope Waters turns into, but he's controlled for the next three years and can help NOW. Serious pop in LF (but can also handle CF in an emergency), switch-hitter, can hit just about anywhere in the lineup. If you could get Happ for Waters and Riley, AA could then pivot to Turner...

Acuna, Freeman, Turner, Happ, d'Arnaud, Ozzie, Dansby, Ender/Pache

The Cubs get their almost-ready replacement for Happ in Waters and their replacement for Bryant if he walks in Riley. Bryant shifts to LF this season while Waters gets a full season of AAA ABs. Signing Turner at a lower AAV than the big names leaves room for the Freeman extension.
 
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