GDT 5/19 Charlie on the hump. Bucket of chicken on standby.

Ivan once again does a good job describing the horrid luck that's been biting the Braves:

https://www.talkingchop.com/2021/5/...n-ronald-acuna-jr-walkoff-homer-this-game-man

The Braves hit the ball so well last night they "should have had" a .403 BA. The Mets hit the ball poorly and "should have had" a .175 BA. And yet...it was a nail biter of a game.

"A .402 xBA is, frankly, insane. (Also, I think the .402 was before Acuña’s homer; I’m not sure Baseball Savant actually updated after the game ended. No matter.) There has literally been one game so far this season (other than this one) where a team compiled an xBA over .400, and it was .403. In that game, the Astros scored 10 runs. In this game, the Braves scored five runs, trailed multiple times, didn’t score until the fifth, and had a win probability as low as 25 percent at one point."

This game was a microcosm of the Braves early season struggles. It's really hard to wrap the mind around it.

I also thought this was funny since you guys all complained about the move in this thread as it was happening:

"Chris Martin, who does apparently exist, despite not being asked to put out the fire in the seventh, threw a quick 1-2-3 eighth. "
 
Enscheff said:
Ivan once again does a good job describing the horrid luck that's been biting the Braves:

https://www.talkingchop.com/2021/5/...n-ronald-acuna-jr-walkoff-homer-this-game-man

The Braves hit the ball so well last night they "should have had" a .403 BA. The Mets hit the ball poorly and "should have had" a .175 BA. And yet...it was a nail biter of a game.

"A .402 xBA is, frankly, insane. (Also, I think the .402 was before Acuña’s homer; I’m not sure Baseball Savant actually updated after the game ended. No matter.) There has literally been one game so far this season (other than this one) where a team compiled an xBA over .400, and it was .403. In that game, the Astros scored 10 runs. In this game, the Braves scored five runs, trailed multiple times, didn’t score until the fifth, and had a win probability as low as 25 percent at one point."

This game was a microcosm of the Braves early season struggles. It's really hard to wrap the mind around it.

I also thought this was funny since you guys all complained about the move in this thread as it was happening:

"Chris Martin, who does apparently exist, despite not being asked to put out the fire in the seventh, threw a quick 1-2-3 eighth. "
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I would have preferred Martin to Jackson, but the head-scratcher to me was allowing Minter to face the RHH Peraza when you have both Martin and Jackson available. Jackson isn't the guy he was in 2019, but he has enough stuff to stick around. Maybe he's not a high leverage guy anymore, but I was just more puzzled by Snitker not taking going with the platoon advantage.

The thing with the Braves this year is that they seem to pay for every mistake (both those made by Snitker and those made by the players) and the Braves aren't cashing in on opposition mistakes. Swanson channeling his inner Maury Wills last night was one of the dumber moves I've seen in a while.
 
We saw the Braves catch pretty much every lucky break last season, and it carried into the playoffs. Snit would consistently make the wrong move, and it somehow worked out anyways. He was constantly hitting on 18, and somehow drawing a 2 or 3 over and over. The results were amazing, but everyone with more than a dozen brain cells to rub together understood they were the wrong moves.

We are seeing the exact opposite this year. Every bad move is biting the Braves, and even the right moves end up not working out. Snit hits on 18 now and draws a face card. Then he stays on 18 and the dealer draws to a 20. And it's happening over and over somehow.

A sample size of 43 games is getting to the point where it's large enough that this streak of unfortunate outcomes is becoming notably improbable. While all predictive numbers say the Braves are a good team and should play better moving forward, all these early losses are very real and have put the Braves in a very real hole they may not be good enough to dig their way out of.
 
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Enscheff said:
We saw the Braves catch pretty much every lucky break last season, and it carried into the playoffs. Snit would consistently make the wrong move, and it somehow worked out anyways. He was constantly hitting on 18, and somehow drawing a 2 or 3 over and over. The results were amazing, but everyone with more than a dozen brain cells to rub together understood they were the wrong moves.

We are seeing the exact opposite this year. Every bad move is biting the Braves, and even the right moves end up not working out. Snit hits on 18 now and draws a face card. Then he stays on 18 and the dealer draws to a 20. And it's happening over and over somehow.

A sample size of 43 games is getting to the point where it's large enough that this streak of unfortunate outcomes is becoming notably improbable. While all predictive numbers say the Braves are a good team and should play better moving forward, all these early losses are very real and have put the Braves in a very real hole they may not be good enough to dig their way out of.
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This is my take on the matter. We’re 6 games back of the Mets in the loss column. Even if they right the ship, I don’t see this team as is being able to make up enough of those losses to get to 90 wins. I could definitely see this team getting the 2nd WC though.
 
Twit is extra dumb this year. He has actually hit on blackjack a few times already.

Literally his style of managing is to stand there with arm crossed waiting for the game to tell him what to do. Instead he should be looking for moves to tell the game what to do.
 
Enscheff said:
We saw the Braves catch pretty much every lucky break last season, and it carried into the playoffs. Snit would consistently make the wrong move, and it somehow worked out anyways. He was constantly hitting on 18, and somehow drawing a 2 or 3 over and over. The results were amazing, but everyone with more than a dozen brain cells to rub together understood they were the wrong moves.

We are seeing the exact opposite this year. Every bad move is biting the Braves, and even the right moves end up not working out. Snit hits on 18 now and draws a face card. Then he stays on 18 and the dealer draws to a 20. And it's happening over and over somehow.

A sample size of 43 games is getting to the point where it's large enough that this streak of unfortunate outcomes is becoming notably improbable. While all predictive numbers say the Braves are a good team and should play better moving forward, all these early losses are very real and have put the Braves in a very real hole they may not be good enough to dig their way out of.
Click to expand...

I think fans do forget that we were crapping horseshoes all last season and in a short season, a corrective trend was never established.
 
Enscheff said:
We saw the Braves catch pretty much every lucky break last season, and it carried into the playoffs. Snit would consistently make the wrong move, and it somehow worked out anyways. He was constantly hitting on 18, and somehow drawing a 2 or 3 over and over. The results were amazing, but everyone with more than a dozen brain cells to rub together understood they were the wrong moves.

We are seeing the exact opposite this year. Every bad move is biting the Braves, and even the right moves end up not working out. Snit hits on 18 now and draws a face card. Then he stays on 18 and the dealer draws to a 20. And it's happening over and over somehow.

A sample size of 43 games is getting to the point where it's large enough that this streak of unfortunate outcomes is becoming notably improbable. While all predictive numbers say the Braves are a good team and should play better moving forward, all these early losses are very real and have put the Braves in a very real hole they may not be good enough to dig their way out of.
Click to expand...

All true, but it doesn't matter.

As our neighbors from our nation's capitol taught us in 2019, the only thing that matters is who has the best record after May 23rd.

The Braves still have three days to work out the kinks.
 
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