Braves sign Freeman to 8 year 135M deal! *Updated to 135m*
- Thread starter Tapate50
- Start date
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
thewupk said
"He also had a very high BABIP in 2013 that's not likely sustainable."
You said
"I don't know...."
One would assume that infers you think that his .371 BABIP is sustainable.
"
"He also had a very high BABIP in 2013 that's not likely sustainable."
You said
"I don't know...."
One would assume that infers you think that his .371 BABIP is sustainable.
"
371 just isn't sustainable though. Two of the best BABIP lords of our time are Votto and Ichiro. And for their careers they are at 359 and 344 respectively. Even if you take Ichiro's decline out of the picture he still posted a 357 BABIP from 2001-2009. That's not to say he won't have anymore years like 2013 and post a BABIP. But he's just as likely to do that as he is to have a BABIP of around 300 like in 2012. And there wasn't much difference in his batted ball profile except for a 5% drop in infield flies. But that's not going to account for a 75 point increase in BABIP. The true is he will likely be in the 330-350 range. Still well above average and likely where he should be given his high line drive rate. But that is the difference between hitting 319 as he did in 2013 and 290-300 as most people project for him.
I said it was very likely he sustains a high BABIP, especially over his peak years. At no time did I say that he would be able to sustain a .371 BABIP over the course of his career.
Reading comprehension fail.
I would say you have to contribute a good bit of the difference between 12 and 13 to simply the natural progression of a hitter. Again, not going to hit .319 every yr, but during his prime it would not be out of the ordinary to see similar #'s.
Grace had a career 309 BABIP. Casey was at 319. Nothing really our of the ordinary with those two. And honestly those are horrible comparisons. Grace and Casey didn't strike out at all or have near the power that Freeman does.
So what changed other then his BABIP being 70 points higher? He walked the same. Struck out 1.6% less. Had the same amount of power. Hit the same amount of line drives. I think most of it revolves around luck. He was unlucky in 2012 and quite a bit luckier in 2013.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Thing that people need to grasp, the prime is now. Players don't peak in their late 20s like they used to now that the minors are actually funded.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
LOLWUT?
Prime years is usually around 25-33 or so.
Some players age better/worse than others.
That very well could happen. And if it does he may be able to sustain a high 800 OPS. However people saying last year was an aberration for Freddie are referring to his 370 BABIP. That won't continue. I would hope you can see that. And when that levels out his overall numbers will drop unless his BB/KK% improve or he hits more homers. That's a fact. So yes that is why 2013 will be an aberration. That's not to say he won't be a good hitter. He just won't be 900 OPS good unless he improves in other areas.
Well I did say for the majority of their careers. Grace averaged .318 BABIP for most of his career. His last few yrs in the league brought down that number down a bit understandably as his skills faded. And in the case of Caseym I would consider a career a .320 BABIP to be at least a little out of the ordinary.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
People much more knowledgable about baseball than myself compiled the stats for this
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/
Not a perfect sample, but as you can tell, baseball players don't peak like they used to, think about many players now a day. Some peak, but most stay about the same.
Well we have batted ball data for half of Caseys career and only two years for Grace. Both were around 23%. A LD% like that is usually going to reflect a higher than average BABIP. So in that context it's not really out of the ordinary. And I suspect Grace's LD% would be higher then that in his prime. The point is those were low strikeout, low homerun hitting 1B. Not comparable at all to Freeman.
His struckout less, walked more (slightly), and hit line drives at a much higher rate.
But1b generally take longer to develop do they not? Can't find the website at this time, but I remember reading that
None of those were at a much higher rate. His LD% went from 26% in 2012 to 26.7% in 2013. Slight improvements in LD% don't account for a 75 point increase in BABIP.
They also are one the quickest positions to decline too.
AUTiger7222
Called Up to the Major Leagues
What about Freeman's spray chart? Was there much difference between 2012 and 2013? That can lead to having a much higher BABIP from one year to the next.
Nothing too drastic. He pulled the ball slightly more then going up the middle. His opposite field hits were roughly the same.
What site are you looking at for your info?
BR says he went from 23% in 2012 to 30% in 2013.