Austin Riley Love Thread

[Russ2dollas]

I was detailing the improvements Riley was making as he was making them.

I also called him the single most interesting player on the roster this year.

I’m now saying to be wary of that .343 BABIP when you project his 2022 production.

Agree. Not to be a dinosaur, but he doesn't look like a 300 hitter to me. He's been that since the first few weeks of the season when he was horrible.

I think the Carp line looks more reasonable 260/340/500. That is a very good player. Especially if he can improve the Defense. I don't think he's as bad as the metrics say, but below average to average seems fair. His body type does not suggest to me that he's going to age gracefully over there.

I would not be talking about a Riley extension. We have good control. I want to see more consistency. And I worry he'll need to be at 1B in his 30s.

Loved watching him play this year.

 

[50PoundHead]

I once noted that Riley's age 23 year was not unlike Mike Schmidt. Slammed. So Ill try something else. Swanson was the number one pick in 2015, Austin 41st. One was college pick the other typical HS pick. Two weeks ago this board was ready to hang Swanson. BTW in 2015 Braves picked Kolby Allard over Riley. How did than work out? Now, Im not saying Austin is a HOFer but I will say almost any team in baseball would take him on for the next 2 or 3 years no questions asked.

I remember the 2015 draft day thread and there was a ton of howling when Riley was picked. He didn't rank highly on the pre-season ranking boards (whatever they are worth) and a lot of teams saw him more as a pitcher than a 3B.

I'm probably the only person in the Braves fan universe who still thinks Allard is going to amount of something, but there were questions about his health (back) when drafted. Soroka and Riley were both supposed reaches and the first of two second round picks (Lucas Herbert) was viewed as a safe pick whose defense would carry him up the minor league ladder. Minter was our other second round pick and he was parked for the year due to arm surgery. Then Clark and company chose nine straight pitchers with Weigel being the only one to pitch in a big league game. I thought the concentration on pitching was in order, but it really did go too far.

Anyway, Riley has really shown improvement this season. He's never going to be a plus defender and I've noticed he often has more trouble on routine plays than the tougher plays. As long as he hits and doesn't turn into the baseball version of Pele in the field, he'll be fine.

 

[Enscheff]

Hold up a second. I'm not calling anyone out specifically, but someone looked at some metric and announced he could improve, but he'd essentially be the first player in history to improve considerably on whatever metric was given.

You can't just fall back on I said he might improve. Either the above opinion was trash or Riley is the first player in history to do improve on some magical metric... or I suppose the metric could be trash.

Similarly, a bunch on here said this team was dead.

Again, I'm not calling anyone specifically out, I'm just pandemic'd out of pronouncements that turn out to be wrong and society acts like its no big deal. It is a big deal when you are adamant about an opinion and it turns out it is unfounded.

No need to eat crow. Just be a little more humble the next time you make a pronouncement about a 22 or 23 year old kid playing the game at the highest level... or about a team that has considerable talent even without its best young bat and 2/3 of its best young pitching.

Your reading comprehension skills could use some work. Let me rehash the 50+ posts I’ve made about Riley the last few years.

I detailed how terrible Riley’s plate discipline was. Then I detailed how rare it is for players to markedly improve it. Then I detailed how well he was making those adjustments, even as most of the board was calling him trash due to his poor results (which were being largely driven by poor luck at the time).

Then I called him the single player on the roster I was most interested in watching. Then I detailed how he was continuing the make improvements in the exact areas I detailed needed to be improved. Then I marveled at the progress he made…as he was making it.

At the end I called him the single best player development story for the Braves in 2022.

Now I’m pumping the brakes on everyone crowing about how they were somehow right, and this silly narrative building about Riley being an MVP candidate. He is a poor defender at 3b despite the decent play he makes twice a month that makes Chip piss his pants with glee, and probably needs to move to 1b sooner rather than later. I’m guessing he’s the backup plan if Freeman gets $150M from a team like the Angels. And that unsustainable luck on balls in play will likely regress, causing the BA to suffer 25-50 points.

 

[50PoundHead]

Your reading comprehension skills could use some work. Let me rehash the 50+ posts I’ve made about Riley the last few years.

I detailed how terrible Riley’s plate discipline was. Then I detailed how rare it is for players to markedly improve it. Then I detailed how well he was making those adjustments, even as most of the board was calling him trash due to his poor results (which were being largely driven by poor luck at the time).

Then I called him the single player on the roster I was most interested in watching. Then I detailed how he was continuing the make improvements in the exact areas I detailed needed to be improved. Then I marveled at the progress he made…as he was making it.

At the end I called him the single best player development story for the Braves in 2022.

Now I’m pumping the brakes on everyone crowing about how they were somehow right, and this silly narrative building about Riley being an MVP candidate. He is a poor defender at 3b despite the decent play he makes twice a month that makes Chip piss his pants with glee, and probably needs to move to 1b sooner rather than later. I’m guessing he’s the backup plan if Freeman gets $150M from a team like the Angels. And that unsustainable luck on balls in play will likely regress, causing the BA to suffer 25-50 points.

Enscheff, help me with this one as you have mathematical and an ability in analytical expression that I lack. Can a rising BABIP be the result of better plate discipline? Poor plate discipline is most likely going to lead to a higher strikeout rate (which doesn't affect BABIP), but (as we often saw with Francoeur) it also leads to really lousy contact that invariably leads to two-hoppers to the second baseman or shortstop that are routine outs. Laying off bad pitches should (it doesn't necessarily mean it will) lead to more consistent hard contact, which should lead to more hits. Obviously, there's still an element of luck in successfully reaching base on balls in play, but I'm wondering if there is any significant correlation between improved plate discipline and improved hard contact.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

So much and almost everything hinges on Freddie. Ozuna's future will also impact on Riley going forward.

 

[thewupk]

Enscheff, help me with this one as you have mathematical and an ability in analytical expression that I lack. Can a rising BABIP be the result of better plate discipline? Poor plate discipline is most likely going to lead to a higher strikeout rate (which doesn't affect BABIP), but (as we often saw with Francoeur) it also leads to really lousy contact that invariably leads to two-hoppers to the second baseman or shortstop that are routine outs. Laying off bad pitches should (it doesn't necessarily mean it will) lead to more consistent hard contact, which should lead to more hits. Obviously, there's still an element of luck in successfully reaching base on balls in play, but I'm wondering if there is any significant correlation between improved plate discipline and improved hard contact.

Consistent hard contact is one element for a higher than average BABIP. Aaron Judge is a prime example of this. He hits the ball harder than anybody and has a career 349 BABIP. His actual batting average vs his expected batting average in that span is 3 points apart so that suggests that's his real BABIP. Freeman also hits the ball hard but isn't exceptional at it. His trick? Line drives. Since 2015 Freeman has a 28.3% LD rate which is best in baseball. Line drives have the highest expected batting average so it's no surprise his BABIP in that span is 339. The difference in his expected batting average and actual is only 1 point in that span.

This will never apply to Austin but being really fast, especially from the left side, can lead to a high BABIP that's real. Lot's of ways to accomplish this. With Riley? His average EV on the year is in the 55th percentile. His max is at 89. When he connects he does a damn good job on it. But he's had stretches where it's a lot of weak contact. Which shouldn't be much of a surprise considering his age.

But to make a long post short. Austin has been lucky this year in the BABIP department. By about 20 points on his actual batting average. Hitting the ball hard consistently can lead to a sustainable rise in BABIP. Being more selective at the plate can lead to that. But it's no guarantee. And even though Riley is performing a little better than his batted ball profile would suggest he's still been damn good.

 

[Southcack77]

Consistent hard contact is one element for a higher than average BABIP. Aaron Judge is a prime example of this. He hits the ball harder than anybody and has a career 349 BABIP. His actual batting average vs his expected batting average in that span is 3 points apart so that suggests that's his real BABIP. Freeman also hits the ball hard but isn't exceptional at it. His trick? Line drives. Since 2015 Freeman has a 28.3% LD rate which is best in baseball. Line drives have the highest expected batting average so it's no surprise his BABIP in that span is 339. The difference in his expected batting average and actual is only 1 point in that span.

This will never apply to Austin but being really fast, especially from the left side, can lead to a high BABIP that's real. Lot's of ways to accomplish this. With Riley? His average EV on the year is in the 55th percentile. His max is at 89. When he connects he does a damn good job on it. But he's had stretches where it's a lot of weak contact. Which shouldn't be much of a surprise considering his age.

But to make a long post short. Austin has been lucky this year in the BABIP department. By about 20 points on his actual batting average. Hitting the ball hard consistently can lead to a sustainable rise in BABIP. Being more selective at the plate can lead to that. But it's no guarantee. And even though Riley is performing a little better than his batted ball profile would suggest he's still been damn good.

Savant has him in the .270 range which suggests legitimate improvement and a little bit of good fortune.

As you said.

Nothing all that lucky about his woba either.

The question is whether he can maintain this quality of contact year to year. Sometimes they can't.

 

[NYCBrave]

Wonder what an extension for Riley would look like. We still have 4 years of control after this. Maybe something to buy our his arbitration and tack on an extra couple of years. Wonder if we can even afford it, taking into account other needs in the coming years, including a potential Freeman extension

 

[thewupk]

Savant has him in the .270 range which suggests legitimate improvement and a little bit of good fortune.

As you said.

Nothing all that lucky about his woba either.

The question is whether he can maintain this quality of contact year to year. Sometimes they can't.

Right. What's he's doing this year is more or less real. Fluctuations of luck up or down happen all the time. Getting a 360 xWOBA from Riley is a major win.

For me it's less of the quality of contact. I don't think he's going to be a guy who has a great EV. When he connects it goes a mile but I just don't think he has the bat to ball skill to consistently hit it hard like Acuna or even Freeman. But he doesn't have to. The BB and K% improvements are legit. If he keeps that K% in the mid 20's and his BB% stays pushing double digits then he will be just fine.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Seems like most people are being reasonable here.

Before the year, I recall that most people would have signed up for a Riley line of 260/333/450.

He's not a 300 hitter. As others have said, it's about walks and power with him. If he can keep that walk rate over 8% and slug 500, then I think he's going to be a good player under team control. He is a better hitter than I thought when I said he's as 240-250 hitter.

Looking at fangraphs I forgot how high Zips and Steamer were on him. Both had him with an OPS north of 800. He's out hit that, but he's also been horrible on defense per their metrics. I don't see him as horrible on D. Like I said earlier today below average to average seems right.

If he has to move to LF or 1B then he's going to really have to keep mashing.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Wonder what an extension for Riley would look like. We still have 4 years of control after this. Maybe something to buy our his arbitration and tack on an extra couple of years. Wonder if we can even afford it, taking into account other needs in the coming years, including a potential Freeman extension

I would say hell no right now.
I want to see him do it for another year. Plus in another year you'll know the new CBA, know more about Ozuna and know if FF is on the team.

I don't believe in him enough to think he's a plus at 1B or DH. I think his body suggests he might not age great.

If you're him, do you want to buy out years and hit the FA market at 30? Now he's poised to hit the market a 28. If he LOVES the braves and wants to be ozzie, maybe it happens. But I don't see that happening. I think you hope he's Brian McCann and he's a big time player for you in his prime and then you let someone else take 1-2 years of prime for 3 years of down production at big money.

 

[Southcack77]

Right. What's he's doing this year is more or less real. Fluctuations of luck up or down happen all the time. Getting a 360 xWOBA from Riley is a major win.

For me it's less of the quality of contact. I don't think he's going to be a guy who has a great EV. When he connects it goes a mile but I just don't think he has the bat to ball skill to consistently hit it hard like Acuna or even Freeman. But he doesn't have to. The BB and K% improvements are legit. If he keeps that K% in the mid 20's and his BB% stays pushing double digits then he will be just fine.

The good news is these K and BB rates aren't too far off from what he did in the minors after adjusting at each level.

The wild swinging probably is what made a lot of us discount him as a more than a useful guy while under control.

Riley and Fried are two that remind me to be more patient.

Fried was maybe irrational. Riley seemed grounded, but still he has changed things a lot.

 

[Southcack77]

I would say hell no right now.
I want to see him do it for another year. Plus in another year you'll know the new CBA, know more about Ozuna and know if FF is on the team.

I don't believe in him enough to think he's a plus at 1B or DH. I think his body suggests he might not age great.

If you're him, do you want to buy out years and hit the FA market at 30? Now he's poised to hit the market a 28. If he LOVES the braves and wants to be ozzie, maybe it happens. But I don't see that happening. I think you hope he's Brian McCann and he's a big time player for you in his prime and then you let someone else take 1-2 years of prime for 3 years of down production at big money.

Maybe guarantee and cost control and try to get two team options.

 

[Russ2dollas]

Maybe guarantee and cost control and try to get two team options.

It's not crazy. I just think you have to wait until next year to see his performance, the CBA, Ozuna and Freddie.

We aren't going to be able to pay everyone. I'm not sure you put Riley of Dansby no either. There are also a ton of really good SS free agents, so what do you do with that (could be SS and trade DS, could move them to 3b and move Riley, etc etc).

CBA could dramatically change the rules.

If I were teams I would be looking at options to front load deals or do huge signing bonuses to make guys legit rich now and decrease my long term pay outs. But we'll see how the CBA goes.

 

[NYCBrave]

It's not crazy. I just think you have to wait until next year to see his performance, the CBA, Ozuna and Freddie.

We aren't going to be able to pay everyone. I'm not sure you put Riley of Dansby no either. There are also a ton of really good SS free agents, so what do you do with that (could be SS and trade DS, could move them to 3b and move Riley, etc etc).

CBA could dramatically change the rules.

If I were teams I would be looking at options to front load deals or do huge signing bonuses to make guys legit rich now and decrease my long term pay outs. But we'll see how the CBA goes.

The problem with waiting until next year is he might be too expensive at this point to extend or him even be willing to.

 

[CyYoung31]

The problem with waiting until next year is he might be too expensive at this point to extend or him even be willing to.

That’s a risk I’m willing to take with Riley.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

Who knows but I bet there will be considerable changes made to arbitration years and league minimum for that matter. Just like any other labor negotiations one side wants more money, less work. The other wants less money (going out) and more work.

 

[Russ2dollas]

The problem with waiting until next year is he might be too expensive at this point to extend or him even be willing to.

yea but that is the risk of every negotiation.

You could say the new CBA could make him a FA at 25 so sign him now. You just don't know.

Your comment could be true about anyone. Maybe we should extend Pache now that he's tasted failure. Maybe next year he'll have a 750 OPS and a gold glove.

Every extension is about how much upside do you trade for downside protection.

 

[zbhargrove]

He's overachieving a little bit, but he has improved vs. last year. His expected wOBA .363, which is rock solid, he's hitting the ball harder which is why he had a big spike in both SLG and BABIP. Hopefully he keeps it up.

lol just a bit of un understatement...

 

[Carp]

The problem with waiting until next year is he might be too expensive at this point to extend or him even be willing to.

That isn't what I would call a "problem." If Riley is playing so well that him signing a below market deal is off table, that is still a really good thing for us. We have 4 more years of control with Riley right now. There really isn't a need to lock him up at this point.