Ian Anderson's stuff

Southcack77 said:
That's not really what you said though.
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I said absent some odd development like him gaining another plus pitch, he had a ceiling of a number 3 starter. I didn't like drafting him because I thought it was a reach considering he didn't have ace potential. That was my position when he was drafted.

Barring some unexpected development like him suddenly gaining a plus pitch or him developing elite command, he's probably reached his ceiling which is as a number 3 starter.

I was very down on him at times in the minors due to him struggling to find the plate at times. He's still not an elite strike thrower and probably never will be. But he has improved that area enough to where it's not a huge problem. It's in that 3.5-4 per 9 area that will let him be a number 3.

I still wonder if he might end up in the pen in a few years. There's a high probability that his fastball velocity will decline as he gets older. That's just how most arms go. If he goes from averaging 94-95 to averaging 91-92 on the fastball, he might struggle to be effective in the rotation. But his changeup is so good that he could probably effectively move to the pen. I actually see this as a benefit as it would allow him to continue to contribute if his velocity declines.
 
striker42 said:
I said absent some odd development like him gaining another plus pitch, he had a ceiling of a number 3 starter. I didn't like drafting him because I thought it was a reach considering he didn't have ace potential. That was my position when he was drafted.

Barring some unexpected development like him suddenly gaining a plus pitch or him developing elite command, he's probably reached his ceiling which is as a number 3 starter.

I was very down on him at times in the minors due to him struggling to find the plate at times. He's still not an elite strike thrower and probably never will be. But he has improved that area enough to where it's not a huge problem. It's in that 3.5-4 per 9 area that will let him be a number 3.

I still wonder if he might end up in the pen in a few years. There's a high probability that his fastball velocity will decline as he gets older. That's just how most arms go. If he goes from averaging 94-95 to averaging 91-92 on the fastball, he might struggle to be effective in the rotation. But his changeup is so good that he could probably effectively move to the pen. I actually see this as a benefit as it would allow him to continue to contribute if his velocity declines.
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I can't think of any SPs with excellent CHs that moved to the BP. I think Ian will be a perfectly good MOR guy for his entire time in Atlanta. Guys like that earn $100M FA contracts.

That's a very good outcome for the #3 pick, and the only real reason I was against him being drafted is because I had a man crush on Kyle Lewis. It's too bad that knee injury cost us the chance to see what he could truly become, but chances are he wasn't going to be the next Kris Bryant like I thought at the time.
 
Enscheff said:
I can't think of any SPs with excellent CHs that moved to the BP. I think Ian will be a perfectly good MOR guy for his entire time in Atlanta. Guys like that earn $100M FA contracts.

That's a very good outcome for the #3 pick, and the only real reason I was against him being drafted is because I had a man crush on Kyle Lewis. It's too bad that knee injury cost us the chance to see what he could truly become, but chances are he wasn't going to be the next Kris Bryant like I thought at the time.
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There's a good chance he's a middle of the rotation starter his entire time here. He's still pretty young. Its entirety possible he's gone before his velocity erodes to where he can't handle a rotation spot anymore.

As for him moving to the pen one day, I cant think of starters with excellent changes moving to the pen but there are relievers who lived on changeups. Hoffman comes to mind.

Anderson had a k/9 this year of over 10 the first time through the order. It shows how difficult it is telling the difference between his fastball and change and is a sign that might play well out of the pen.

We definitely ride him as a middle of the rotation guy as long as we can but I could see him being an effective reliever if he could make that adjustment when it becomes necessary.
 
I will say this, I don't hate the pick of Anderson anymore as he ended up playing a key role in getting us a title. That's worth the number 3 pick any day.
 
striker42 said:
As for him moving to the pen one day, I cant think of starters with excellent changes moving to the pen but there are relievers who lived on changeups. Hoffman comes to mind.
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Hoffman was a starter in the minors for a bit (also a shortstop, so maybe not the most normal path)

I think original-miracle-lefty Chris Hammond was a big changeup guy, if I recall correctly, and he started for a number of years. Maybe lefties aren't as comparable though.

Also how can we forget ace closer and failed starter Chris Reitsma.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Hoffman was a starter in the minors for a bit (also a shortstop, so maybe not the most normal path)

I think original-miracle-lefty Chris Hammond was a big changeup guy, if I recall correctly, and he started for a number of years. Maybe lefties aren't as comparable though.

Also how can we forget ace closer and failed starter Chris Reitsma.
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Gagne was a starter for the Dodgers before moving to the pen and he had a good changeup.
 
striker42 said:
I was crucified for saying after we drafted Anderson that barring him picking up another plus pitch that he had a ceiling of a middle of the rotation starter. A reliable #3 is a very valuable thing to have and you'll see some get given ridiculous contracts this offseason. I was just disappointed we drafted a guy so high who didn't have ace potential.

It really is a shame his curve is so weak. If he had a hammer curve he'd be elite.
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His curve is good enough. His command is not. That's where he's got room to grow. Reading some of the stories about him coming up (throws 95, no idea where it's going, etc) it sounds like it's improved a lot. Fried's command still needed some refining when he got up, and he managed to make that last step. No guarantee Ian will, but that's where the focus needs to be.
 
Super said:
i personally crucified him for saying Anderson had major control issues when he clearly does not. his control is far from elite but it’s clearly not an issue in him being a very effective major league pitcher
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And he did have major control issues. There were stretches where he looked like he'd never find the plate again. If he hadn't developed better control he's at best a #5 starter or long reliever type pitcher. His BB/9 in the minors was well over 4 which pretty much had to improve for him to make it.

Do you know how hard it is to be a successful starter in the majors with a BB/9 over 4? Over the last three years only 5 pitchers have managed to pitch enough innings to qualify while walking that many. 2 in 2019, 2 in 2020, and 1 this year. That's 5 out of 123 qualifying pitchers. None of them were able to do it twice.

My position was that he needed to get it under 4 if he wanted to have any chance of becoming a useful starter. He looks to have done that. A lot of young pitchers can't make that adjustment and bust as a result.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
His curve is good enough. His command is not. That's where he's got room to grow. Reading some of the stories about him coming up (throws 95, no idea where it's going, etc) it sounds like it's improved a lot. Fried's command still needed some refining when he got up, and he managed to make that last step. No guarantee Ian will, but that's where the focus needs to be.
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I disagree that his curve is good enough. It has a spin rate of under 2,100 RPM. MLB average is about 2,500. His average movement is 1 inch horizontally and 10 inches vertical. The MLB average is 10 inches and 53 inches.

So the curve is below average. His arm angle might make it play up a little but not enough. It's essentially a show me pitch.
 
striker42 said:
I disagree that his curve is good enough. It has a spin rate of under 2,100 RPM. MLB average is about 2,500. His average movement is 1 inch horizontally and 10 inches vertical. The MLB average is 10 inches and 53 inches.

So the curve is below average. His arm angle might make it play up a little but not enough. It's essentially a show me pitch.
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53 inches?

I knew the spin rate was low, but I'm not sure that's as relevant with a spiked (knuckle) curve as it is with a spun curve. I think of those as two different pitches.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
53 inches?

I knew the spin rate was low, but I'm not sure that's as relevant with a spiked (knuckle) curve as it is with a spun curve. I think of those as two different pitches.
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I actually had a typo in my earlier post. His curve ball moves horizontally 1 inch and drops 49 inches. The MLB average is 10 inches and 53 inches. That's according to Baseball Savant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll?player_id=666120#pb_CUKC

It's a below average curve both in terms of spin rate and movement. The arm angle might benefit him some but it's ultimately a below average pitch.

Fangraphs put a value on it of -4.3 on the curve while putting a value of 9.3 on the fastball and 5.9 on the changeup (most likely the fastball is so effective because his changeup is really good). But no matter how you cut it, the curve isn't up to snuff.
 
The raw data on pitch movement is one part of the equation.

What it looks like to the hitter is another.
 
thethe said:
The raw data on pitch movement is one part of the equation.

What it looks like to the hitter is another.
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True. But here the raw pitch data on spin rate and movement are backed up by Fangraphs pitch values which, unless I'm wrong, are based on the actual success of a pitch.

Compare that to the fastball. His fastball also has below average spin and below average movement. However it's his most successful pitch according to Fangraphs. Why is that? It's because his fastball is boosted tremendously by his fantastic changeup. Those two pitches work together really, really well and so the results on them are very good.

The curve is different. The raw data shows it as below average and the results show it as below average. It's not an effective pitch for Anderson and it's not likely to ever be.

I've wondered if Anderson should try to add a splitter.
 
Anderson’s straight over the top motion is going to make adding pitches difficult because he won’t be able to get much horizontal movement. That means no slider or cutter, and no sinker with any sort of real arm side run.

His current mix of rising FA, downer CU and downer CH are pretty much the optimal mix for him given that arm slot. I don’t think a split would help because that’s effectively a CH.

No idea if he can change the arm slot, but I guess it wouldn’t be worth it. His extension on the FA and deception on the CH makes them an effective combo, and that’s already a very good SP with a usable CU.

My recommendation would be to continue refining his command/execution of those pitches, and continue being a good SP. Like most pitchers, he will likely lose enough stuff in his 30s that he will no longer be effective, but just ride him for now and enjoy the results.
 
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