Around Baseball Offseason Edition - Derek Jeter will retire at seasons end

I just don't see the Braves giving up a first round draft pick for something that isn't even their biggest need right now. Especially with the way Wood has been looking early on.
 
AUTiger7222 said:
I don't consider being a league average pitcher as "solid". We clearly have different definitions on that. To be solid as anyone who routinely carries around a FIP of 4 and below with the great ones being a 3.5 and below. But you are right about 2010 being the year where offense took a nosedive.

MLB average for runs scored and runs per game.

2013 - 675 (4.16)

2012 - 701 (4.32)

2011 - 694 (4.28)

2010 - 710 (4.38)

2009 - 747 (4.61)

2008 - 753 (4.64)

2007 - 777 (4.79)

2006 - 787 (4.85)

2005 - 744 (4.59)

2004 - 779 (4.80)
Click to expand...

Thank you for clearly illustrating my point about offense.

Solid to me means reliable and not bad. When I talk about pitchers I gues below average for guys who're below average above average or good for guys above average solid for guys who're around average but have other redeemable qualities. In Santana's case his ability to consistently get into the 7th makes him a solid starter to me.

That said, you just contradicted yourself as well because Santana had a FIP of 4.00 in 2011 meaning by your definition of good or productive or whatever, if it's the same as being solid (your point of contention with my characterization) then you'd have to add a 4th season.

Also just to make a point, Santana's FIP vs the runs per game numbers you posted

2013 3.93 vs 4.16

2012 5.63 vs 4.32

2011 4.00 vs 4.28

2010 4.28 vs 4.38

2009 5.02 vs 4.61

2008 3.30 vs 4.64

2007 5.13 vs 4.79

2006 4.29 vs 4.85

2005 4.43 vs 4.59

That's using FIP and MLB averages

If you switch your sampe to league average runs per game in the AL you get

2013 - 4.33

2012 - 4.45

2011 - 4.46

2010 - 4.45

2009 - 4.82

2008 - 4.78

2007 - 4.90

2006 - 4.96

2005 - 4.76

So if you compare those to Ervin, you see his FIP was below the AL average RPG by safer margins. He's a solid pitcher with a terrible season and a few pretty bad ones as well. No where near as bad as you're painting him.
 
thewupk said:
Santana is just as likely to be a 1 WAR pitcher as he is to be a 2-3 WAR pitcher.
Click to expand...

I would generally disagree. If we look at his 5 year sample he has 1 season above 3 fWAR, 1 season above 2 fWAR 1 season just below 2 at 1.9, one terrible -1.0 season and one season at 1.1 but that season he only threw 139 IP. He would have likely been closer to 2 if he pitched that full season

rWAR with that same sample is 2 seasons at 3, one just below 3, one terrible -1.3 and his shortened season at -0.3.

Basically he's a 2-3 guy pretty consistently with a few blip years. Not bad, but I wouldn't give up a pick for him. I'd take him but again, only as a signa nd trade from KC where we give them some middling prospects, or maybe just Hale.
 
zitothebrave said:
I would generally disagree. If we look at his 5 year sample he has 1 season above 3 fWAR, 1 season above 2 fWAR 1 season just below 2 at 1.9, one terrible -1.0 season and one season at 1.1 but that season he only threw 139 IP. He would have likely been closer to 2 if he pitched that full season

rWAR with that same sample is 2 seasons at 3, one just below 3, one terrible -1.3 and his shortened season at -0.3.

Basically he's a 2-3 guy pretty consistently with a few blip years. Not bad, but I wouldn't give up a pick for him. I'd take him but again, only as a signa nd trade from KC where we give them some middling prospects, or maybe just Hale.
Click to expand...

Santana would have to pitch close to 250 innings in 09 at that current level to get close to a 2 WAR. Still that's 3 years in a 5 year window where he did not reach 2 WAR. Yes I know one of those was at 1.9 WAR. But let's not act like 1.9 WAR for someone who had 222 innings is anything close to being good.
 
Heyward said:
Jays signed him, 1/14.
Click to expand...

The teams that waited did well this year. Orioles with Cruz and Jimenez, the Brewers with Garza (and Lohse last year) and now the Blue Jays with Santana.

The teams that jumped the gun overpaid this off-season. Most notably the Giants, whose signings of Pence and Lincecum even before they hit free agency, set the tone for the early free agent signings.

I think there is a lesson. Be patient. We experienced some of the downside of going hard after a player early with BJ Upton last off-season, when I think we ended up bidding against ourselves to some extent.
 
zitothebrave said:
Thank you for clearly illustrating my point about offense.

Solid to me means reliable and not bad. When I talk about pitchers I gues below average for guys who're below average above average or good for guys above average solid for guys who're around average but have other redeemable qualities. In Santana's case his ability to consistently get into the 7th makes him a solid starter to me.

That said, you just contradicted yourself as well because Santana had a FIP of 4.00 in 2011 meaning by your definition of good or productive or whatever, if it's the same as being solid (your point of contention with my characterization) then you'd have to add a 4th season.

Also just to make a point, Santana's FIP vs the runs per game numbers you posted

2013 3.93 vs 4.16
2012 5.63 vs 4.32
2011 4.00 vs 4.28
2010 4.28 vs 4.38
2009 5.02 vs 4.61
2008 3.30 vs 4.64
2007 5.13 vs 4.79
2006 4.29 vs 4.85
2005 4.43 vs 4.59

That's using FIP and MLB averages

If you switch your sampe to league average runs per game in the AL you get

2013 - 4.33
2012 - 4.45
2011 - 4.46
2010 - 4.45
2009 - 4.82
2008 - 4.78
2007 - 4.90
2006 - 4.96
2005 - 4.76

So if you compare those to Ervin, you see his FIP was below the AL average RPG by safer margins. He's a solid pitcher with a terrible season and a few pretty bad ones as well. No where near as bad as you're painting him.
Click to expand...

Just not a fan of the guy. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has never been impressive. He's had 3 good years (by my standards) and 3 terrible years (by my standards).
 
nsacpi said:
The teams that waited did well this year. Orioles with Cruz and Jimenez, the Brewers with Garza (and Lohse last year) and now the Blue Jays with Santana.

The teams that jumped the gun overpaid this off-season. Most notably the Giants, whose signings of Pence and Lincecum even before they hit free agency, set the tone for the early free agent signings.

I think there is a lesson. Be patient. We experienced some of the downside of going hard after a player early with BJ Upton last off-season, when I think we ended up bidding against ourselves to some extent.
Click to expand...

Those teams also had to give up draft picks which is one reason why their prices weren't that high. Teams are coveting their draft picks more then ever right now and it shows in free agency. If you are offered a qualifying offer and decline it. Chances are you are going to sign late and less then what you want unless you are an elite player.
 
Heyward said:
Jays signed him, 1/14.
Click to expand...

This is incorrect.

sp_1411_clip02.jpg
 
ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports that the Tigers' offered Max Scherzer an extension at a slightly lower figure than the $25.7 million per year Justin Verlander received last spring.
The deal, according to Stark, still would have placed Scherzer amongst the top six highest-paid SPs in the game by AAV. For that to be true, Scherzer was offered at least $24 million annually. When he rejected it, Detroit curiously jumped the news cycle and released a statement that could be read as an employer smearing an employee for being greedy. Either way, Scherzer will pitch out his one-year deal worth $15,525,000 and hit the free agent market next winter. If he replicates his performance of last season (21-3, 2.90 ERA), Scherzer could conceivably come close to Verlander's $180 million, seven-year deal.
 
I think Scherzer is being too greedy. Last year was his first great year. Verlander had at least 1 Cy Young award before his deal, and better overall success. That's a really generous deal for Scherzer.
 
Ouch: MLBTR reports; The Rangers have announced that infielder Jurickson Profar will miss 8-12 weeks with a muscle tear, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. The Rangers would prefer to look internally for a replacement, tweets Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top