50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I think it's just really difficult to gauge our minor league system top-to-bottom these days; a situation that has been exacerbated by the international sanctions and the loss of a minor league season to COVID restrictions. Harris II and Strider are unicorns to the extent that they advanced as rapidly as they did. When lesser-known draft picks advance as fast as these two did, fans seem to think they came out of nowhere, but both were highly-regarded high school prospects. Harris II was viewed as a solid two-way player with a Texas Tech commitment (likely as a pitcher). Strider was throwing 96 in high school and was drafted late in 2017 by the Guardians (maybe as a courtesy pick) and the Braves may have gotten lucky that the NCAA season was cancelled in 2020 because if he has a larger showcase coming off his arm surgery, he may have been drafted much higher. All that said, I don't think their graduation, along with Contreras', really changes the organization's rankings that much in the larger schema. If they stay in the minor league system, we probably move from the mid-20s to the upper-20s. As others have pointed out, there's simply no depth in the system (especially with position players) and some of our higher-round picks have either been traded (which is a legitimate use of player capital) or have not performed to expectations. As thethe said, it almost reminds me of the late-Wren era right after we'd graduated a wave and before Albies and Acuna hit the scene in a big way.
Grissom is now the likely #1 prospect and he's probably where he needs to be at this juncture. He's not Harris II and that's alright. Both Harris II and Grissom spent some time on the 60-man roster during the 2020 season, so they got to work with the big league instructors, but you could see then that Harris II was already a "grown-a$$ man" while Grissom was still filling out physically.
I have no idea what they are going to do starting Sunday night. They obviously have a lot of picks and a good-sized pool, so I expect they will be able to go "through the front door" to a greater extent than they have in recent times (although it wouldn't be a Braves' draft without the choice of a college senior pitcher in the first five rounds who will sign for a season pass to Six Flags along with a couple of squatty-body RHPs) and not use the post-Round 10 strategy they employed in 2019. Braves bet on a lot of ceiling in that draft (both before and after Round 10), but of the high school guys in that category, only Grissom (and Harris II, of course) has emerged. Position players Paolini, Backstrom, and Morton have not done well and have astronomical K-rates and pitchers Owens and Johnson haven't found their footing yet.
They were more traditional in their approach last year and it's just too early to tell how that will play out. I was a little surprised at Conley's promotion to Rome and his LHH splits are so much worse than his RHH splits, that I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves tell him to junk the switch-hitting. It's too bad Waddell is banged up. Conley projects higher, but Waddell could be one of those guys whose production matches his projection to a greater extent.
But to the overall quality of the system, the lack of position prospects really is astounding. Almost everyone in full-season ball projects as a utility player or bench bat at best. No catching prospects of note. Mezquita has tools, but his K-rate (like most of the rest of the team in Augusta) is pretty bad, especially because there is no trade-off in terms of power. The guy who has been surprising in Augusta is Brandon Parker, who is repeating that level.
The international penalties have just decimated the lower minors, especially the FCL team. About the only guy who has shown much since the penalties were levied is Geraldo Quintero in Augusta. He was just joined in Augusta by Francisco Floyd, who is a physical specimen that hasn't done much with the bat or in the field to this point. The first big signing post-penalties--SS Ambioris Taverez--has yet to log a professional AB. The higher profile signees from the last signing period haven't gotten off to good starts in the DSL, but I put so little stock in what happens down there that I've always thought it better to wait (unless a guy is absolutely lost).
Haven't been around too much. Glad to see the place is still hopping. If people want to know what I'm thinking, just assume I agree with Enscheff about 90% of the time on major league stuff and a lot of guys on the murkier minor league stuff. I'll probably chime in on the draft stuff.
Grissom is now the likely #1 prospect and he's probably where he needs to be at this juncture. He's not Harris II and that's alright. Both Harris II and Grissom spent some time on the 60-man roster during the 2020 season, so they got to work with the big league instructors, but you could see then that Harris II was already a "grown-a$$ man" while Grissom was still filling out physically.
I have no idea what they are going to do starting Sunday night. They obviously have a lot of picks and a good-sized pool, so I expect they will be able to go "through the front door" to a greater extent than they have in recent times (although it wouldn't be a Braves' draft without the choice of a college senior pitcher in the first five rounds who will sign for a season pass to Six Flags along with a couple of squatty-body RHPs) and not use the post-Round 10 strategy they employed in 2019. Braves bet on a lot of ceiling in that draft (both before and after Round 10), but of the high school guys in that category, only Grissom (and Harris II, of course) has emerged. Position players Paolini, Backstrom, and Morton have not done well and have astronomical K-rates and pitchers Owens and Johnson haven't found their footing yet.
They were more traditional in their approach last year and it's just too early to tell how that will play out. I was a little surprised at Conley's promotion to Rome and his LHH splits are so much worse than his RHH splits, that I wouldn't be surprised if the Braves tell him to junk the switch-hitting. It's too bad Waddell is banged up. Conley projects higher, but Waddell could be one of those guys whose production matches his projection to a greater extent.
But to the overall quality of the system, the lack of position prospects really is astounding. Almost everyone in full-season ball projects as a utility player or bench bat at best. No catching prospects of note. Mezquita has tools, but his K-rate (like most of the rest of the team in Augusta) is pretty bad, especially because there is no trade-off in terms of power. The guy who has been surprising in Augusta is Brandon Parker, who is repeating that level.
The international penalties have just decimated the lower minors, especially the FCL team. About the only guy who has shown much since the penalties were levied is Geraldo Quintero in Augusta. He was just joined in Augusta by Francisco Floyd, who is a physical specimen that hasn't done much with the bat or in the field to this point. The first big signing post-penalties--SS Ambioris Taverez--has yet to log a professional AB. The higher profile signees from the last signing period haven't gotten off to good starts in the DSL, but I put so little stock in what happens down there that I've always thought it better to wait (unless a guy is absolutely lost).
Haven't been around too much. Glad to see the place is still hopping. If people want to know what I'm thinking, just assume I agree with Enscheff about 90% of the time on major league stuff and a lot of guys on the murkier minor league stuff. I'll probably chime in on the draft stuff.
Last edited:
