That isn't really related to the point I'm making. I'm not arguing what the market value of Dansby Swanson is. I'm merely pointing out why I think it's a bad investment. Paying large market value (or near mkt value) contracts to non elite players tends to be really bad investments. Particularly when said player has a career year in his walk year.
Extension Talks With Swanson Reportedly Underway
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
That isn't really related to the point I'm making. I'm not arguing what the market value of Dansby Swanson is. I'm merely pointing out why I think it's a bad investment. Paying large market value (or near mkt value) contracts to non elite players tends to be really bad investments. Particularly when said player has a career year in his walk year.
This is the real issue. Its either glove first guy at a lower price or shopping in the A bin for much more than 20 AAV.
Not sure the Braves would agree with you here. He just isn't quick with the transfer or getting rid of the ball so far from what I've seen. Not sure about arm strength yet.
Riley has been an elite hitter for going on 2 seasons now. And he's 25, not 28.
That being said, I also voiced concerns over his contract in that thread, but given his offensive profile, it's much easier to manage.
I'd do 4 for 90 honestly. Those tail two years on a 6 year deal scare me.
Wait...
Have people on this board seriously been fooled by Swanson's 2022 numbers fueled by a .377 BABIP? I know Snit is stupid enough to bat him 2nd, but I figured everyone on this board has seen enough unsustainable performances to understand what Swanson was doing this year was smoke and mirrors.
These are the predictive stats since 2019...
2019 xwOBA = .350
2020 xwOBA = .354
2021 xwOBA = .332
2022 xwOBA = .340
The luck-based BABIP and HR/FB numbers are going to fluctuate month to month and cause overall numbers to shift, but Swanson has been a very consistent above average offensive performer the last 4 years.
Here he is compared to the other FA SSs for the last 4 years...
Correa .366
Turner .356
Bogaerts .346
Swanson .342
Unsurprisingly, that is also the order of contract size they are expected to get.
Correa and Turner are most likely looking at $300M+. Bogaerts is looking at $200M+, and isn't really a long term SS.
If Swanson is available for a fraction of those contracts, I think AA would be wise to lock him up now. The cost for 3 win FAs is $20M+, and that's clearly what Swanson is. Certainly not ideal to pay FA rates for a SS when we've been spoiled with cheap rookies signing cheap extensions, but if the plan is to ride this core into the sunset for the rest of the decade AA can't suddenly stop now and put garbage at SS.
In a world where Baez and Story just got $140, and someone was stupid enough to give Semien $175M, it makes sense to sigh and deal with Swanson at $120M
Have people on this board seriously been fooled by Swanson's 2022 numbers fueled by a .377 BABIP? I know Snit is stupid enough to bat him 2nd, but I figured everyone on this board has seen enough unsustainable performances to understand what Swanson was doing this year was smoke and mirrors.
These are the predictive stats since 2019...
2019 xwOBA = .350
2020 xwOBA = .354
2021 xwOBA = .332
2022 xwOBA = .340
The luck-based BABIP and HR/FB numbers are going to fluctuate month to month and cause overall numbers to shift, but Swanson has been a very consistent above average offensive performer the last 4 years.
Here he is compared to the other FA SSs for the last 4 years...
Correa .366
Turner .356
Bogaerts .346
Swanson .342
Unsurprisingly, that is also the order of contract size they are expected to get.
Correa and Turner are most likely looking at $300M+. Bogaerts is looking at $200M+, and isn't really a long term SS.
If Swanson is available for a fraction of those contracts, I think AA would be wise to lock him up now. The cost for 3 win FAs is $20M+, and that's clearly what Swanson is. Certainly not ideal to pay FA rates for a SS when we've been spoiled with cheap rookies signing cheap extensions, but if the plan is to ride this core into the sunset for the rest of the decade AA can't suddenly stop now and put garbage at SS.
In a world where Baez and Story just got $140, and someone was stupid enough to give Semien $175M, it makes sense to sigh and deal with Swanson at $120M
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bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
We already have a power bat in RF, 1B, 3B.. with above average at 2B and hopefully CF/C/LF.. locking up a 3 win SS for 4-6 years while we have all those other guys locked up for that time is not a bad play. Sure we all want 4 years or less.. but 6 years just follows what all these other positions are running.. basically keeping the team together
chop2chip
Well-known member
Clearly not if you read this thread. Everyone is making the exact same point as you.
I said earlier in this thread I am much more comfortable paying 30+ million in AAV years to Turner or even Correa over the same time span. But assuming they aren't an option, I would allocate that 20 million in AAV to other areas of need and sign Iglesias in the off-season while also giving Grissom some time there as well. I've also mentioned Amed Rosario as a trade candidate if Cleveland decides to move him before he leaves for FA.
They're not trading Chisholm for an offer that doesn't include Harris AND Grissom.
Still want him?
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
there is no way they would ask that much. Harris is probably more valuable alone with his new contract.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
I don't have a lot of keen insight here. I'll just say that I think this is a pretty tricky decision, and I also do not look forward to seeing our shortstop position without Swanson if we don't re-sign him.
The Marlins are going to ask for the moon for an asset like Chisholm.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
It all depends on length of contract and I think keeping the core together is a worthy project, but the potential downside is we'll be paying guys to play on other teams for a season or two. That's not a viable long-term strategy.
I agree... and they should. If, however you could find a way, he would fit well with our young core.
I know it is highly unlikely, verging on impossible, but I just remembered seeing the article and thought it was interesting
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I think it is very interesting. I wonder how Riley's lack of range plays into it. Do they feel they need a stud defender at SS? How much does shifting impact this?
6/120 seems to be the fair rate.
I worry about paying for Dansby's defense into his mid 30s. That said I worry about Turner too. Turner has a lot of value built on speed and that is the first thing that goes with age and injury.
Correa is the main guy I've wanted. Mostly b/c of the bat and I think he's more likely to take a high AAV and lower year deal. I just worry if he is the defender next to Riley. I don't have the numbers but I don't think he's the defender Swanson is. Now you've got Olson and Riley locked up so you can't move him to 3B or 1B if he gets old. Maybe between the 3 of them they can cover 3B, 1B and DH.
Most people do not think Grissom is a SS long term. But if you do not think infield defense is a super high value given shifts and people hitting the ball in the air more, maybe you can put him there.
I think Arcia showed he's a solid role player, SSS starter, but not a guy you want everyday on a contender.
I don't see an obvious trade. Marlins are not trading in the division.
6/120 seems to be the fair rate.
I worry about paying for Dansby's defense into his mid 30s. That said I worry about Turner too. Turner has a lot of value built on speed and that is the first thing that goes with age and injury.
Correa is the main guy I've wanted. Mostly b/c of the bat and I think he's more likely to take a high AAV and lower year deal. I just worry if he is the defender next to Riley. I don't have the numbers but I don't think he's the defender Swanson is. Now you've got Olson and Riley locked up so you can't move him to 3B or 1B if he gets old. Maybe between the 3 of them they can cover 3B, 1B and DH.
Most people do not think Grissom is a SS long term. But if you do not think infield defense is a super high value given shifts and people hitting the ball in the air more, maybe you can put him there.
I think Arcia showed he's a solid role player, SSS starter, but not a guy you want everyday on a contender.
I don't see an obvious trade. Marlins are not trading in the division.
OcalaBrave
Spring Training Invitee
20 million looks a lot cheaper 4 years from now. 4 years to develop a replacement.
These deals are about getting an asset on an affordable long term agreement instead of walking for a draft pick.
These deals are about getting an asset on an affordable long term agreement instead of walking for a draft pick.
The plan appears to be lock up your position player core til 30 or early 30’s. Draft and develop pitchers, then use them while they’re controlled and then let them walk. Replace from within and have at least 1 acquired veteran among the group. Spend big on relievers on short contracts.