Official official offseason thread

bravesfanforlife88 said:
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Mr.Heyman seems pretty off, mainly on years, on some of his top 30 free agent predictions.

Has both Correa and Turner landing a 9 year / $275m contract. Dansby at 7 year / $175m, Bogaerts at 8 years / $225m
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I could see someone going 9 on Correa and Turner, especially Correa. I doubt anyone goes 7 on Swanson and anyone going 8 on Bogaerts would need their head(s) examined. Read up a bit on Bogaerts and some are worried about his EVs and hard-hit %s. Bogaerts' calling card is offense and if folks see that on the downside, his market may be mushy.
 
50PoundHead said:
I could see someone going 9 on Correa and Turner, especially Correa. I doubt anyone goes 7 on Swanson and anyone going 8 on Bogaerts would need their head(s) examined. Read up a bit on Bogaerts and some are worried about his EVs and hard-hit %s. Bogaerts' calling card is offense and if folks see that on the downside, his market may be mushy.
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I feel like he will definitely be the first one off the board.
 
I think people will see Dansby be the cheapest option and try to get him first. Xander won’t play SS for much longer so teams signing him will have to keep that in mind. If AA offered around 100 for Dansby then we know where he thinks of him in terms of his possible future value. AA will budge some on that number but probably not a whole lot. Some team will come in and offer him more money but we’ll see if he takes it or wants to stay. If Danny leaves then AA has to sign one of Correa or Turner imo.
 
I’m thinking AA made his play for Swanson and is now moving on. While nothing would surprise me, I’m expecting something like Iglesias and Conforto plus the best BP arm he can afford.
 
Amed Rosario is still top ten target given what I would expect as reasonable cost and potential value.

Kyle Farmer, Iglesias, and Andrus are my back up options in that order.
 
I think AA wants a bigger fish and did his due diligence in making Swanson an offer before the season was over. He’ll probably push the envelope just a little bit but not enough for him to accept.
 
This is nigh murph-level rosterbating, but: If the Brewers were sending Adames, and taking back Ozuna and Rosario, what else would they need to give (in player or monetary value) for you to accept the contract of Christian Yelich?

It's not pretty, at 6/$156m—essentially like signing Kris Bryant for one fewer year (lol Rockies)—however (a) Yelich is nonetheless demonstrably better than Ozuna and/or Rosario, as he exists currently; (b) he might have room to regain some offensive productivity, given his EVs are still solid (if down from his 2018-19 peak), he still walks a lot, and his LA has plummeted but should(?) be fixable; (c) Adames was worth 4.7 fwar last season, on a $4.6m one-year deal, with two arb seasons left and the kind of counting-stats that probably won't earn him too much of a raise; (d) there aren't a lot of other options for dumping Ozuna and Rosario; and (e) at least for 2023, the money for Yelich and Ozuna/Rosario would essentially wash out, and he'd only represent a modest cost-increase over Ozuna in 2024 (with 2025–2028 representing the years where the Braves would eat a lot of ****).

Gut-brain still says Milwaukee would need to kick in more than a little more to make this viable for the Braves—like minimum $30m to make those final three years hurt less, meaning they're basically trading Adames' final two seasons for ~$60m in contractual savings—but I thought it was at least an interesting (if highly unlikely) exercise in bad-contract swapping.
 
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jpx7 said:
This is nigh murph-level rosterbating, but: If the Brewers were sending Adames, and taking back Ozuna and Rosario, what else would they need to give (in player or monetary value) for you to accept the contract of Christian Yelich?

It's not pretty, at 6/$156m—essentially like signing Kris Bryant for one fewer year (lol Rockies)—however (a) Yelich is nonetheless demonstrably better than Ozuna and/or Rosario, as he exists currently; (b) he might have room to regain some offensive productivity, given his EVs are still solid (if down from his 2018-19 peak), he still walks a lot, and his LA has plummeted but should(?) be fixable; (c) Adames was worth 4.7 fwar last season, on a $4.6m one-year deal, with two arb seasons left and the kind of counting-stats that probably won't earn him too much of a raise; (d) there aren't a lot of other options for dumping Ozuna and Rosario; and (e) at least for 2023, the money for Yelich and Ozuna/Rosario would essentially wash out, and he'd only represent a modest cost-increase over Ozuna in 2024 (with 2025–2028 representing the years where the Braves would eat a lot of ****).

Gut-brain still says Milwaukee would need to kick in more than a little more to make this viable for the Braves—like minimum $30m to make those final three years hurt less, meaning they're basically trading Adames' final two seasons for ~$60m in contractual savings—but I thought it was at least an interesting (if highly unlikely) exercise in bad-contract swapping.
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How about this?

Braves_Brewers_Idea.jpg
 
Carp said:
Amed Rosario is still top ten target given what I would expect as reasonable cost and potential value.

Kyle Farmer, Iglesias, and Andrus are my back up options in that order.
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If Judge leaves the Yankees, I can see them signing Correa even with their wealth of SS prospects, which would put Kiner-Falefa on the market (who conceivably may not be tendered given his arbitration status and the aforementioned SS prospects). Not a great option, but he's a pretty decent glove guy. And there are other possibilities depending on the landing spots for the big four.

The Braves' current SS situation is exacerbated by the loss of the international free agents. That has haunted us and will continue to do so. Livan Soto was one of the prospects whose contract was invalidated and he made his debut with the Angels in September and played well. Very small sample size, but he appears to be a decent fielder whose bat might carry. Ji Hwan Bae also made his debut with the Pirates and while he was signed as a SS, he's moved off the position.

I'm guessing Anthopoulos had a possible replacement in mind when he drafted Shewmake and we seem to have forgotten about him a bit. Hope he recovers from his injury resulting from his collision with Demeritte. Shewmake has not performed particularly well, but a solid start at Gwinnett could put him in the picture if not for 2023, perhaps beyond.
 
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The biggest thing here is that we are in our contention window and Swanson has been a big part of that especially this year. We can’t replace him with a random guy who is decent with the glove and hits a little. It either needs to be Swanson or somebody better than Swanson. AA knows this and has a plan. He’ll give Swanson x amount of time to accept an offer or he’ll move on the plan B who I hope is Turner or Correa. And before anybody says why would he pay those 2 when he can sign Swanson for less, they are better players moving forward than Swanson and that’s what you’ll be paying for.
 
Enscheff said:
I’m thinking AA made his play for Swanson and is now moving on. While nothing would surprise me, I’m expecting something like Iglesias and Conforto plus the best BP arm he can afford.
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A trade option for Rosario or Adames is the best Plan B option. Plan B as in trade for SS, Conforto/LF'er, and a BP arm or two. I do agree i'd be surprised if he went over like 4/100, 5/115 or so. If someone goes 6/140, 7/175 as Heyman said, it wont be from AA.
 
50PoundHead said:
If Judge leaves the Yankees, I can see them signing Correa even with their wealth of SS prospects, which would put Kiner-Falefa on the market (who conceivably may not be tendered given his arbitration status and the aforementioned SS prospects). Not a great option, but he's a pretty decent glove guy. And there are other possibilities depending on the landing spots for the big four.

The Braves' current SS situation is exacerbated by the loss of the international free agents. That has haunted us and will continue to do so. Livan Soto was one of the prospects whose contract was invalidated and he made his debut with the Angels in September and played well. Very small sample size, but he appears to be a decent fielder whose bat might carry. Ji Hwan Bae also made his debut with the Pirates and while he was signed as a SS, he's moved off the position.

I'm guessing Anthopoulos had a possible replacement in mind when he drafted Shewmake and we seem to have forgotten about him a bit. Hope he recovers from his injury resulting from his collision with Demeritte. Shewmake has not performed particularly well, but a solid start at Gwinnett could put him in the picture if not for 2023, perhaps beyond.
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Cashman pretty much said they wont be in on the big name shortstops yesterday at his presser. If Judge leaves, i'm interesting what their alternative plan would be though.
 
Braves have been linked to Turner and Correa a little bit, but i am curious if AA has the funds to get either of them. None of us know that. If we're not gonna give Swanson a market level deal which is the right move. I think keeping Swanson is the right move if the contract isnt what Heyman or that agent predict, but if it is, i cant see AA going to that level of money. As jpx said, i'm also most curious how AA plans to get off Ozuna/Rosario, because they were black holes especially in October. Dont know if he'll try a crazy swap like Yelich but need to upgrade there or hope Malloy is ready quick lol.
 
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