Arcia Extended

Never really understood the beef about Arcia. Striker's right that we are only seven games into the season, but Arcia's no slouch. He's going to be at least serviceable at the position and he's got the talent (he was a Top-100 prospect coming out of AA in the Brewers' system) to flash now and then. He's likely not to be at Swanson's level when all is said and done (anyone else see the highlight of Swanson throwing a guy out while on his butt?), but I don't think Arcia is going to be this black hole in the line-up that some seem to think.
 
Some stats:

BA: .370
xBA: .268

SLG: .667
xSLG: .384

wOBA: .459
xwOBA: .329

BABIP: .400

He's hot right now and everything points to him being EXTREMELY lucky in a SSS. So enjoy it because his numbers will regress as soon as he cools off and/or hits a stretch of bad luck. His expected stats are right in line with with his career norms.

Interestingly his defensive stats are a bit of a mixed bag. UZR seems to like him but OAA doesn't. I imagine that will shake out over time.
 
striker42 said:
Some stats:

BA: .370
xBA: .268

SLG: .667
xSLG: .384

wOBA: .459
xwOBA: .329

BABIP: .400

He's hot right now and everything points to him being EXTREMELY lucky in a SSS. So enjoy it because his numbers will regress as soon as he cools off and/or hits a stretch of bad luck. His expected stats are right in line with with his career norms.

Interestingly his defensive stats are a bit of a mixed bag. UZR seems to like him but OAA doesn't. I imagine that will shake out over time.
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Your numbers on xBA/xSLG/xwOBA are outdated. I suggest you refresh your baseball savant page.

Arcia is at MINIMUM a 1-1.5 WAR player and during his prime years might be slightly more.
 
striker42 said:
Some stats:

BA: .370
xBA: .268

SLG: .667
xSLG: .384

wOBA: .459
xwOBA: .329

BABIP: .400

He's hot right now and everything points to him being EXTREMELY lucky in a SSS. So enjoy it because his numbers will regress as soon as he cools off and/or hits a stretch of bad luck. His expected stats are right in line with with his career norms.

Interestingly his defensive stats are a bit of a mixed bag. UZR seems to like him but OAA doesn't. I imagine that will shake out over time.
Click to expand...

It's worth noting some guys do make marked improvements then outhit their expected stats a bit.

I'm not saying he's gonna hit what he's hitting now. Just saying that using expected stats in a SSS is as bad as using regular stats. He's clearly overperforming right now,but pointing to xBA or xSLG when he's put 22 balls in play is silly. They don't tell any significant story. Same with defensive stats. And I expect defensive stats for infielders to be wild for a year or 2 as they adjust to the new shift rules.
 
zitothebrave said:
It's worth noting some guys do make marked improvements then outhit their expected stats a bit.

I'm not saying he's gonna hit what he's hitting now. Just saying that using expected stats in a SSS is as bad as using regular stats. He's clearly overperforming right now,but pointing to xBA or xSLG when he's put 22 balls in play is silly. They don't tell any significant story. Same with defensive stats. And I expect defensive stats for infielders to be wild for a year or 2 as they adjust to the new shift rules.
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It also helps when you're in a stacked lineup and people are afraid as hell to walk you in front of Acuna.
 
thethe said:
Your numbers on xBA/xSLG/xwOBA are outdated. I suggest you refresh your baseball savant page.

Arcia is at MINIMUM a 1-1.5 WAR player and during his prime years might be slightly more.
Click to expand...

If he's a fulltime starter I see him as a 2ish WAR guy which isn't bad. It's what you want as a placeholder while you develop a replacment.
 
zitothebrave said:
If he's a fulltime starter I see him as a 2ish WAR guy which isn't bad. It's what you want as a placeholder while you develop a replacment.
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And while only signed to 3M per year - Like I said he's giving us surplus value while we have a loaded roster that is rapidly becoming expensive. Its a fantastic deal and as usual AA is a ****ing genus.
 
thethe said:
Your numbers on xBA/xSLG/xwOBA are outdated. I suggest you refresh your baseball savant page.

Arcia is at MINIMUM a 1-1.5 WAR player and during his prime years might be slightly more.
Click to expand...

I was going off fangraphs this morning. Suffice to say, he's not going to put up an OPS over 1.000 which is where he is right now.

Last year, a 1.5 WAR SS would rank 19th in the league. Only 3 SS in the game with enough ABs to qualify had a WAR under 2 last year. If he exceeds expectations and puts up 2 WAR, that would have tied him for 17th in the league last year.

Rosy predictions of Arcia have him below average. More realistic hopes (your 1 to 1.5 WAR) would place him among the worst starters in the league. He probably wont be the SVOD that is Ozuna but SS will very likely be an area we can improve. And there is still a non-zero chance he has a WAR around 0. He goes through 6 weeks like he did when he was starting last season and a lot more people will be looking around the league to see who might be available.
 
striker42 said:
I was going off fangraphs this morning. Suffice to say, he's not going to put up an OPS over 1.000 which is where he is right now.

Last year, a 1.5 WAR SS would rank 19th in the league. Only 3 SS in the game with enough ABs to qualify had a WAR under 2 last year. If he exceeds expectations and puts up 2 WAR, that would have tied him for 17th in the league last year.

Rosy predictions of Arcia have him below average. More realistic hopes (your 1 to 1.5 WAR) would place him among the worst starters in the league. He probably wont be the SVOD that is Ozuna but SS will very likely be an area we can improve. And there is still a non-zero chance he has a WAR around 0. He goes through 6 weeks like he did when he was starting last season and a lot more people will be looking around the league to see who might be available.
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His fWAR ranking relative to the league is irrelevant unless of course you think its possible to field a team of all top 5 fWAR at their positions somehow. What is his surplus value relative to the league at SS? For a team thats loaded elsewhere thats really all that matters.
 
thethe said:
His fWAR ranking relative to the league is irrelevant unless of course you think its possible to field a team of all top 5 fWAR at their positions somehow. What is his surplus value relative to the league at SS? For a team thats loaded elsewhere thats really all that matters.
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who cares about surplus value really.. not on a cheap deal like that. What we need is production and the ability to help win, or at least not get in the way of, a championship. Right now he is doing that and then some.. Our biggest hurdle at the moment is Ozuna and the mounting injuries. The injuries will take care of themself in time.. Ozuna will need to be addressed probably sooner than later.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
who cares about surplus value really.. not on a cheap deal like that. What we need is production and the ability to help win, or at least not get in the way of, a championship. Right now he is doing that and then some.. Our biggest hurdle at the moment is Ozuna and the mounting injuries. The injuries will take care of themself in time.. Ozuna will need to be addressed probably sooner than later.
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Surplus value is huge because we don't have an abundance of resources to allocate so spending that wisely is key around a loaded squad.
 
I found it interesting that Arcia was a -.4 dWAR on FG. That just doesn't seem right. I haven't watched every minute or every game, but I can't recall many mistakes or even balls he didn't get to, that I thought he should have. Is SS just that hard of a position to be positive in dWAR
 
The deal is so cheap that even if he is replacement player level it's not a millstone around our neck (unlike Ozuna). I'm not mad about the contract. I found it unnecessary as I think you can get into that level of production for close to league minimum but we have multiple worse contracts on the team.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I found it interesting that Arcia was a -.4 dWAR on FG. That just doesn't seem right. I haven't watched every minute or every game, but I can't recall many mistakes or even balls he didn't get to, that I thought he should have. Is SS just that hard of a position to be positive in dWAR
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The defensive stats are a little weird for him right now. They don't seem to agree. UZR loves him. He's the 5th best defensive SS in the league according to it. OAA ranks him 21st. SSS weirdness.
 
thethe said:
His fWAR ranking relative to the league is irrelevant unless of course you think its possible to field a team of all top 5 fWAR at their positions somehow. What is his surplus value relative to the league at SS? For a team thats loaded elsewhere thats really all that matters.
Click to expand...

fWAR relative to the league is relevant. It shows you what the supply of better SSs is. If he were the 8th best SS in the league, there aren't many options to improve. If he's the 20th best, there are more options.
 
Defensive stats 1 week into the season are virtually meaningless. You could be Ozzie Smith and show up as average if you aren't given the opportunities to showcase your ability. As long as Arcia isn't some huge liability then he will be fine. So far so good.
 
striker42 said:
fWAR relative to the league is relevant. It shows you what the supply of better SSs is. If he were the 8th best SS in the league, there aren't many options to improve. If he's the 20th best, there are more options.
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But those options cost way more resources than what the Braves have.
 
striker42 said:
Some stats:

BA: .370
xBA: .268

SLG: .667
xSLG: .384

wOBA: .459
xwOBA: .329

BABIP: .400

He's hot right now and everything points to him being EXTREMELY lucky in a SSS. So enjoy it because his numbers will regress as soon as he cools off and/or hits a stretch of bad luck. His expected stats are right in line with with his career norms.

Interestingly his defensive stats are a bit of a mixed bag. UZR seems to like him but OAA doesn't. I imagine that will shake out over time.
Click to expand...

Oh so you’re saying he’s not going to finish the season as the best hitter in baseball.

The xWOBA of .328 is perfectly acceptable. That would put him > 100 wRC

Just enjoy a guy having a good season, man
 
chop2chip said:
Oh so you’re saying he’s not going to finish the season as the best hitter in baseball.

The xWOBA of .328 is perfectly acceptable. That would put him > 100 wRC

Just enjoy a guy having a good season, man
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I think we are all enjoying him playing so well. I doubt we are 6-1 with him and Ozuna playing as expected. I think Striker is just playing devils advocate to everyone esles euphoria..

I am still interested to see if he can maintain the >.300 Babip... is the bump luck, swing/approach change, shift rules.. combo of everything. With him just staying the same across the board but bumps his Babip from .270ish to .315ish, then you are getting a very viable replacement for Dans.... for pennies on the dollar..
 
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