Arcia Extended

It's so hard to perfectly compare performances from different time periods. Yes the pitchers now throw harder more consistently than ever before. But hitters have better training and resources than at any point in history as well. Look at the work done on launch angle for example.

I personally find it okay to compare players based on the era they played in. The game has changed but it has generally changed symmetrically. So if you dominated the game when you played, I think it's fine to compare that with dominating performances today.
 
chop2chip said:
Who holds the Braves record?

I have feeling it’s going to be that JD Drew season.
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Darrell Evans in 73 posted a 9.7 WAR season. 158 WRC+ with great fielding.

Hornsby had 1 season with the Boston Braves and had a 8.9 WAR season but it was 1928 and that doesn't impress me.

The rest of the top 10 is filled with seasons from Aaron and Matthews. With 2 random years from Drew and McCann.

Andruw's best year is 05 and ranks him 15th.

The top 20 seasons is littered with Aaron and Matthews with a few random years from other players here and there.

Maddux in 95 had a 7.9 fWAR season. Give him the 35-36 starts he normally made and he likely gets over 10 that year.
 
chop2chip said:
Yea could be that Maddux year if you go by bWAR. I don’t think Fangraphs is as high because they are K addicts.
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Going by bWAR Maddux topped out at 9.7 in 95. Niekro has him beat with a 10.0 in 78. Aaron has the highest bWAR year with a 9.4 in 61.

Aaron is the GOAT.
 
Arcia earned his whole contract by the All Star break. I wont hold my breath on him being an above average player going forward but I think he gets better pitches to hit because pitchers viewed him as the easy out in our lineup. If he was batting in the top of the batting order for a losing team I bet he wouldnt have put up this performance with the bat.
 
Carp said:
Striker, I think it's safely enough time to come eat your crow. 2.4 fWAR, 1.9 bWAR.
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I gladly admit I was wrong about Arcia's value. Mainly because I was very, very wrong about his defense.

Looking at the downward trajectory of his defensive stats, I thought that trend would continue. I thought he'd be a well below average defensive SS. Instead, he's in the 76th percentile in fielding value according to Baseball Savant and the 90th percentile for range.

I legitimately have no idea how Arcia does it defensively considering he's one if the slower players in the game (16th percentile for foot speed).

Arcia being excellent defensively at a position where defense is at a premium gives him a lot more value than I expected. I fully admit that and am happy I was wrong.

His expected stats for his offense have been pretty much in line with the pre-season projections. Meaning he's been pretty average at the plate.

Had his defense been well below average and his offense only average, Nicky Lopez would be the better option at SS.
 
striker42 said:
I gladly admit I was wrong about Arcia's value. Mainly because I was very, very wrong about his defense.

Looking at the downward trajectory of his defensive stats, I thought that trend would continue. I thought he'd be a well below average defensive SS. Instead, he's in the 76th percentile in fielding value according to Baseball Savant and the 90th percentile for range.

I legitimately have no idea how Arcia does it defensively considering he's one if the slower players in the game (16th percentile for foot speed).

Arcia being excellent defensively at a position where defense is at a premium gives him a lot more value than I expected. I fully admit that and am happy I was wrong.

His expected stats for his offense have been pretty much in line with the pre-season projections. Meaning he's been pretty average at the plate.

Had his defense been well below average and his offense only average, Nicky Lopez would be the better option at SS.
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You specifically said his offense would be nowhere near where it was last season. It's actually been better.
 
striker42 said:
It's so hard to perfectly compare performances from different time periods. Yes the pitchers now throw harder more consistently than ever before. But hitters have better training and resources than at any point in history as well. Look at the work done on launch angle for example.

I personally find it okay to compare players based on the era they played in. The game has changed but it has generally changed symmetrically. So if you dominated the game when you played, I think it's fine to compare that with dominating performances today.
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Almost impossible to compare across eras and it's not just that players are so much more athletic now than in earlier eras. Lucrative contracts allow guys to forego off-season employment, which was standard for most players up through the 1960s. Ballparks are smaller for the post part and configurations don't vary that much. Travel is much less enervating now as well.

All that said, I think the biggest difference is that hitters are so much stronger now then they were in earlier eras. Guys can generate a lot more opposite-field power now then they could in earlier eras. Used to be that pitchers could work outer-half on guys with greater effectiveness because most power hitters had to pull the ball to hit it out. Not so much anymore.
 
Carp said:
You specifically said his offense would be nowhere near where it was last season. It's actually been better.
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I was most down on his defense. This is a post of mine from page one of this thread:

"The complex systems all predict his offense to be below average and his defense to be very good. They seem to be a bit skewed by the fact that Arcia was a much better defender early in his career.

But Arcia's defense has eroded big time. He's nowhere near the defender he was when he first came up. He's been below average the last couple of years. If he's below average both offensively and defensively, it's unlikely he'll reach his WAR predictions.

Maybe he turns it around. Maybe he suddenly becomes a better hitter or fielder. But there's not much reason to believe he's a guaranteed 1 WAR.

But also, why would we be happy with 1 WAR? That would rank as the worst starting SS in the majors last year."


So I thought he'd be below average offensively and he's been average. Not a huge difference. I thought he'd be terrible in the field and he's been excellent. That's the huge difference.
 
You also said this:

striker42 said:
You're assuming a player playing part time will produce at the same rate when they play full time. That's often not the case. Part time players often are picked for favorable matchups. When they go full time they have to face unfavorable matchups.

There's a such thing as negative value. A player can have positive value against favorable matchups and negative value in the added PT of regular starts. There's evidence that was Arcia last year.

When Ozzie went down Arcia started to get regular PT. He got a lot of ABs in June and July. His wRC+ took a nosedive those two months. He was way overmatched as a starter.

It's very possible that additional playing time for Arcia could actually result in reducing his WAR rather than increasing it.
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And also this:


striker42 said:
Arcia has eclipsed 1 fWAR exactly once in his career. That was his second year in the bigs where he managed 2 WAR in nearly 550 PAs.

Not sure why he would be a 1 WAR minimum player when he's only done it once in 7 big league seasons.

There's absolutely nothing special about Arcia. He's as mediocre and replaceable as they come. Don't let a hot start against bad pitching fool you into thinking he's more than he is.
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Carp said:
You also said this:




And also this:
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There's nothing in there showing different than what I've been saying. I expected him to be a below average hitter. He's been an average hitter.

I was expecting a sub-.700 OPS. Maybe .680. Based on his expected stats I was probably about 50 points below how he's actually played. I was wrong but not crazy wrong.

I was expecting him to be a well below average fielder and he's been excellent. I was crazy wrong there.

Drop his defensive value well into the negative and he's probably not even a 1 WAR player.
 
Let him eat the crow he’s serving himself. It seems like plenty.
 
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