Murphy War Crimes

Carp said:
I know people don't like admit it, but maybe, just maybe, Murphy isn't Johnny Bench 2.0? Maybe as a hitter, Murphy is actually closer to the .780 OPS player he's been over his career? While that is still very good for a catcher, it wouldn't be like we were benching a perennial MVP candidate for Corky Miller.

Both catchers have been terrible since the break. While I certainly prefer Murphy start over TDA (mostly due to age), I think most of you are breathing too much into Murphy's hot start, believing that was the player we were getting. Coming into this season, TDA and Murphy essentially had the same batting line over the prior 4 seasons. Maybe as hitters, they simply aren't as far off as people seem to think they are?

And with Bill tearing it up in Milwaukee, it's certainly easy to question why this trade was necessary in the first place, even an much as I like Murphy.
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It was very clear that Murphy is a better player when playing 3+ games in a row. His exit velocities and peripherals the first half when he was playing much more regularly DO suggest he has elite hitting capabilities. It was very clearly not luck.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I said this much when the trade was made. It is not like this season Billy is having came out of no where.. he is just replecating what he did last year and you actually started to see his catching improve when he got behind the plate.. problem is Twit has this man crush on TDA and starts him WAY WAY too much.. even when Billy was here.. But the trade was made and a significant investment was made on Murph. So regardless if he bench 2.xx, he should be getting 70-80% of the reps. And to assume Twit is retro resting Murph because he played so much when TDA was hurt is dumb. If twit doesn't know how to manage a catcher (even when a back up is hurt) then that manager should be fired. Tromp/John Doe/ Sally from Cheeta 3 (does that even exist still) all could have taken a game or 2 while TDA was hurt.

I personally think it has to be hard to get clicking offensively when you are playing every other day.. this team needs Murphy to be the best offensive version of himself come playoff time.. whether that is Bench 2.xx or Evan Gattis circa Braves...
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I will say the one thing that has seemingly come out of nowhere for Bill this year is his defense. He’s somehow become a very good defensive Catcher which seemed impossible when he was here. Granted it seems the Brewers do very well developing the defensive side of the position… it has been a big surprise for me
 
It is definitely possible Murphy is more like a 780+ OPS player. But 780+, with elite defense and 28 years old vs. TD at a 690 OPS, pushing 35 years old and inferior defense still makes this a no brainer. Then there is the hard to quantify point that Murphy has not gotten a chance to "play himself out of his slump" and its totally reasonable to believe its had a meaningful impact - not to mention, hard to ignore the mental aspect of "pressing" knowing your playing time is just continuing to get worse and worse. Overall though, as noted, its bizarre to have gone all in on him, traded our best trading chip, given a big extension and then been ok with him being a part-time catcher for most of the season.

The other concern is TD just flat out sucks now offensively - and unlike Murphy, TD's sucky stats are on a full-year basis. Point being, he just can't be a "co-starter" - we need Murphy to get reps to get hot again and then start every game in the post season. We have days off after almost every game, so the idea that we need to alternate catchers in the post season is just stupid. If Snit is an idiot and thinks TD is better, then the irony is TD should start every game in the playoffs. Any catcher alternating in the playoffs with build-in days off would just be moronic. Play the better player every game. I don't think there is a single point in the postseason where we play more than 3 games in a row, and it might even be no more than 2 games in a row

Btw as a reminder, the idea that the FO has nailed postseason playing time decisions might be tainted by our WS. Stupid things we've done just at the top of my head. (1) Dallas Keuchel started two games in a 5 game series and electing to go Fried in relief. Hard to believe we had a 5 game playoff series and proactively gave healthy Soroka + Fried a total of one start! Literally cost us the series. (2) In the WS vs Houston, we randomly benched Soler in game 4 - of course he pinch hit and hit a bomb, but hard to believe we decided to bench him when he was basiclly playing like Super Man since we traded for him. (3) Last year, randomly putting Grissom in when he was clearly not ready for the playoffs. (4) Sticking with Rosario every game when he clearly didn't have it last year, keeping Contreras on the bench for two games last year despite him clearly having been one of our best hitters all season last year. Pretty sure every Braves fan wanted Rosario / Ozuna on the bench last playoffs and they ended up going a combined 0-16 in the series - and this isn't "hindsight" - it was very obvious they did not have "it" last year.

We've done some really dumb stuff on line-up decisions in the playoffs, so I can't say I have full confidence that we "get it right" come playoff time
 
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mfree80 said:
I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that over the life of the contract, this will be a non-issue.
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That’s what I hope but we just keep extending TDA lol… and shouldn’t we take advantage more of the part of Murphy’s contract when he’s still young?
 
mfree80 said:
I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that over the life of the contract, this will be a non-issue.
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I don't get this statement.. So we should just platoon him while he is in his prime because we 'owe' it TDA.. Then when Murphy is an aging catcher, lets play him 80% of the time.. That just seem very twitner based logic.

I feel about 65% sure the FO will step in for the postseason and strip TDA away from Twit's starting lineup card. But I don't like Murphy not being able to play more and get his bat going to at least a playable level.
 
zbhargrove said:
It was very clear that Murphy is a better player when playing 3+ games in a row. His exit velocities and peripherals the first half when he was playing much more regularly DO suggest he has elite hitting capabilities. It was very clearly not luck.
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His EVs are great, but his contact ability has always been pedestrian, which is why he has a .241 career average. His first half performance was indeed partially fueled by luck as he had BABIPs around .360 through like mid June, despite a career BABIP of .281. But he's seen a power surge that means his current line is pretty legit. What we've seen since the break is likely the regression to the mean.

I'm more playing Devil's advocate. Again, I would rather Murphy start more. He is clearly the better overall player and has more potential. But I also don't think this is quite the tragedy many of you are making it out to be.
 
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AJonesATL said:
It is definitely possible Murphy is more like a 780+ OPS player. But 780+, with elite defense and 28 years old vs. TD at a 690 OPS, pushing 35 years old and inferior defense still makes this a no brainer. Then there is the hard to quantify point that Murphy has not gotten a chance to "play himself out of his slump" and its totally reasonable to believe its had a meaningful impact - not to mention, hard to ignore the mental aspect of "pressing" knowing your playing time is just continuing to get worse and worse. Overall though, as noted, its bizarre to have gone all in on him, traded our best trading chip, given a big extension and then been ok with him being a part-time catcher for most of the season.

The other concern is TD just flat out sucks now offensively - and unlike Murphy, TD's sucky stats are on a full-year basis. Point being, he just can't be a "co-starter" - we need Murphy to get reps to get hot again and then start every game in the post season. We have days off after almost every game, so the idea that we need to alternate catchers in the post season is just stupid. If Snit is an idiot and thinks TD is better, then the irony is TD should start every game in the playoffs. Any catcher alternating in the playoffs with build-in days off would just be moronic. Play the better player every game. I don't think there is a single point in the postseason where we play more than 3 games in a row, and it might even be no more than 2 games in a row

Btw as a reminder, the idea that the FO has nailed postseason playing time decisions might be tainted by our WS. Stupid things we've done just at the top of my head. (1) Dallas Keuchel started two games in a 5 game series and electing to go Fried in relief. Hard to believe we had a 5 game playoff series and proactively gave healthy Soroka + Fried a total of one start! Literally cost us the series. (2) In the WS vs Houston, we randomly benched Soler in game 4 - of course he pinch hit and hit a bomb, but hard to believe we decided to bench him when he was basiclly playing like Super Man since we traded for him. (3) Last year, randomly putting Grissom in when he was clearly not ready for the playoffs. (4) Sticking with Rosario every game when he clearly didn't have it last year, keeping Contreras on the bench for two games last year despite him clearly having been one of our best hitters all season last year. Pretty sure every Braves fan wanted Rosario / Ozuna on the bench last playoffs and they ended up going a combined 0-16 in the series - and this isn't "hindsight" - it was very obvious they did not have "it" last year.

We've done some really dumb stuff on line-up decisions in the playoffs, so I can't say I have full confidence that we "get it right" come playoff time
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TDA's advanced stats are almost identical to previous seasons. He is actually hitting the ball harder on average than either of the last 2 seasons. He is just getting **** luck in terms of BABIP. If you normalized his BABIP, his OPS would likely be in the .750+ range.
 
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zbhargrove said:
Lol did we forget TDA was injured for a month+??
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No but since Murphy needed to play more then perhaps they are giving TDA a bit more run now when the games mean a bit less. Lets also keep in mind that Murphy has never been on a playoff run before much less a deep one. Murphy also has been hit by 10 pitches just in the 2nd half this year for a total of 18.
 
For the first “scrimmage”, d’Arnaud is on the A squad lineup while Murphy is with the B squad. Ozuna is also on the B squad, but I think this is him trying to field a position.
 
WaitingFor2017 said:
For the first “scrimmage”, d’Arnaud is on the A squad lineup while Murphy is with the B squad. Ozuna is also on the B squad, but I think this is him trying to field a position.
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Only the willfully ignorant here don’t already know that TDA is starting game 1 of the playoffs.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Only the willfully ignorant here don’t already know that TDA is starting game 1 of the playoffs.
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He sort of become the personal catcher for Max. But it is still dumb move. And all those that attacked us whiners need to come eat some crow. Maybe they are resting Murph for spring training.
 
At least with Max, runners are less likely to steal due to his pickoff move. I still worry more about blocking/framing/plays at the plate that d'Arnaud continually whiffs at and pales in comparison to Murphy.
 
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