Official 2024 Off-Season Thread!

Enscheff said:
I challenge anyone clamoring to replace Rosario to find an option anywhere near 1 year $9M that is projected to produce better than 1.5-2.0 WAR. Folks suggesting Heyward is an obvious answer may want to take a look at his actual numbers as a platoon bat. Here's a hint: they weren't better than Rosario's. So unless there's a steal of a deal for a bat like Robert (hard to imagine the deal they passed up at the deadline is suddenly easier to swallow now), pairing Rosario with someone like Grichuk is likely the best option.

AA's clear need is the best SP he can afford, then the best BP arm he can afford. The vast majority of his resources need to go towards those arms. That fact is just as true now as it was at the deadline. Someone like Elder simply can't be the SP in the 3rd game of a series...it's unacceptable for a true WS contender.
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Hayward's splits were considerably better than Rosario's vs RHP. Heyward also gets on base a decent clip and can actually play defense well. Rosario doesn't get on base, he plays bad defense, and he's gonna be 32 next year. There will absolutely be better options available, whether that be either trade signing a FA. We need to move on.
 
Enscheff said:
Here is the closest thing to a contract prediction we have for the SP of interest from back in August: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/08/2023-24-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings-august-edition.html

Yamamoto - "easy to envision him receiving offers of eight years...opt-out opportunities"

Montgomery - "Taillon (4/68) and Walker (4/72) feel like more of a floor...ought to be able to command a fifth guaranteed year...nine-figure deal"

Nola - "five or six year deal topping nine figures should still be attainable...$162MM...were it not for the home run concerns"

Giolito - "six-year deal still seems plausible"

Snell - "legitimate Game 1 starter in a postseason series...nine-figure deal of five or more years in length"

Hader - "will take aim at making Diaz’s (5/102) record"

Lorenzen, EdRod and Stroman in the HM section with no real info.

So the play seems to be bring back Morton, then wait to get one of the guys listed above on a 3 year deal, or be the team that jumps at Yamamoto. If that fails be the team who grabs Lorenzen, EdRod or Stroman.
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Zero chance Giolito gets 5 or 6 years after the way he finished this year.

And why do you keep thinking Lorenzen is a good pitcher when it's painfully clear he is not?
 
Carp said:
Hayward's splits were considerably better than Rosario's vs RHP. Heyward also gets on base a decent clip and can actually play defense well. Rosario doesn't get on base, he plays bad defense, and he's gonna be 32 next year. There will absolutely be better options available, whether that be either trade signing a FA. We need to move on.
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xwOBA disagrees.
 
Carp said:
Zero chance Giolito gets 5 or 6 years after the way he finished this year.

And why do you keep thinking Lorenzen is a good pitcher when it's painfully clear he is not?
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I just posted stats showing how good he is. Nobody is claiming anything other than what the data says.
 
Carp said:
Ok. That's 1 stat. Heyward still gets on base significantly more and plays considerably better defense.
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If we're selecting our platoon LF based on defense we're doing it wrong.

Heyward seems much more likely to regress to the sub-.700 OPS guy he was for most of his Cubs deal than what he showed last year in LA.
 
DirkPiggler said:
If we're selecting our platoon LF based on defense we're doing it wrong.

Heyward seems much more likely to regress to the sub-.700 OPS guy he was for most of his Cubs deal than what he showed last year in LA.
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100%

I’ve seen that show before. If we want someone to hit rollovers to 2B I can suffice for much much less.
 
What do people think about using Darius Vines in the rotation next year? He shouldnt have to be great for us to win a lot of the games he starts. I think if we put Vines as a starter vs a team and follow him up with Strider thats going to make Striders fastball seem all the more unhittable. I think having contrasting SP to not allow the other teams to get used to one speed is helpful. Kind of like how its perceived to be good to mix up lefty and righty starting pitchers.
 
DirkPiggler said:
If we're selecting our platoon LF based on defense we're doing it wrong.

Heyward seems much more likely to regress to the sub-.700 OPS guy he was for most of his Cubs deal than what he showed last year in LA.
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His advanced stats support his performance. Really the only thing that wasn't near career averages was his power, which can largely attributed to the fact that LA kept him in a strict platoon. Only 25 total PAs against LHP. I don't expect Heyward to repeat this season. But I do think he's far more likely to be a 1-2 WAR player in 2024 than Rosario is. And if you want to pull the previous 3 seasons stats into account, Heyward has been worth 1.7 WAR over that span while Rosario has been worth .6 WAR. Neither player is a great option, but given the choice between the two, I will gladly take Heyward over Rosario.
 
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Carp said:
He literally pitched this year to his career averages. Which is basically a league average pitcher.
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Yes, and the Braves have a need for an MLB average SP as a fallback plan.

Again, nobody called Lorenzen anything different. I posted his stats compared to other SPs, and showed where he slots. Shall I go back and quote myself to reiterate?
 
Carp said:
His advanced stats support his performance. Really the only thing that wasn't near career averages was his power, which can largely attributed to the fact that LA kept him in a strict platoon. Only 25 total PAs against LHP. I don't expect Heyward to repeat this season. But I do think he's far more likely to be a 1-2 WAR player in 2024 than Rosario is. And if you want to pull the previous 3 seasons stats into account, Heyward has been worth 1.7 WAR over that span while Rosario has been worth .6 WAR. Neither player is a great option, but given the choice between the two, I will gladly take Heyward over Rosario.
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But do his advanced stats a one-time jump in performance, or will he regress to his more usual poor hitting? I'd bet on the latter.

The WAR comparison is skewed by Heyward's one good year offensively, and by his defense. If I have to bet on one to replicate his current year's performance I'm going with the one who has been (slightly) more consistent and who is also two years younger.
 
Carp said:
Ok. That's 1 stat. Heyward still gets on base significantly more and plays considerably better defense.
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And OBP is only 1 stat. The difference between the 1 stat I quoted and the 1 stat you quoted is mine takes both OBP and SLG into account to represent total offensive talent. They were essentially equivalent in that more inclusive stat.

I do agree Heyward will be far superior defensively. Do you think Heyward could be had for 1 year and $9M? Because to take that shot AA must decline Rosario's affordable option and hope he gets Heyward, and if he doesn't he then has to bid on Rosario. Perhaps he can get Heyward for less, or turn around and get Rosario for less...I'm not going to claim I know how those contracts will pan out.

The plan may very well be to upgrade LF, and that would be awesome. But folks may want to realize that Rosario on a 1 year deal is the safest option for a known commodity that then allows AA to focus all other resources on arms.
 
DirkPiggler said:
If we're selecting our platoon LF based on defense we're doing it wrong.

Heyward seems much more likely to regress to the sub-.700 OPS guy he was for most of his Cubs deal than what he showed last year in LA.
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Disagree. He won't be as good as he was this year, but he showed marked improvement from 2021/22. Walked more, struck out less, increased his launch angle, which got him more barrels to the ball. Will he be better than Rosario? Not sure. Both have huge question marks. But both seem like basically league average hitters at best and mediocre hitters at worst.

I do think a healthy chunk of Heyward's issues in Chicago devolved into being between the ears. I don't think his coaching staff gave him the support he needed to get out of his head.

I suspect he'll be a .320-.330 wOBA guy. WHich is basically what Rosario is. Or somewhere between his 2018-2019 Cubs seasons

Do we need him over Rosario, not really. But if we can get him and Duvall or Pham as our new RF platoon for only a little more than Rosario is making (not saying we can, but if) then that's interesting to me. Though neither Pham or DUvall have huge L/R splits. So maybe to lean into the splits more someone like Hunter Renfroe.
 
Enscheff said:
xwOBA disagrees.
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xwOBA has Heyward and Rosario as essentially the same.

And what Carp said is right, Rosario's career wRC+ vs Righties is 107 and vs lefties it's 85 while Heyward's career vs Righties is 115 and vs lefties is 77.

Now will that be the call we elect to make, that's a different discussion. To me it depends on if you can sign Heyward for less than Rosario, and you have to be pretty comfortable with that bet as you have to pick that option up before free agency. Honestly given the class of free agent LHH (or switch) corner outfielders fielders (Heyward, Gallo, Joc, Hicks, Brantley) the odds are we can find a cheap LF. Just the question is do we want to risk being burned to potentially be much better as we could potentially have Heyward and someone like Renfroe for not that much more than what we're paying now or gamble on Aaron Hicks and he's not the guy he was in NY last year but the guy he was in Baltimore. Or bring back our old pal Adam Duvall.
 
Rosario gets along with everybody in the clubhouse really well and AA believes in that. If we don’t bring Rosario back then I think he’ll get a significant upgrade out there. Robert makes the most sense bc the White Sox are going nowhere. He just turned 26 and has 2 more years on his deal cheap. If we trade assets for anybody it needs to be him.
 
Hudson2 said:
Rosario gets along with everybody in the clubhouse really well and AA believes in that. If we don’t bring Rosario back then I think he’ll get a significant upgrade out there. Robert makes the most sense bc the White Sox are going nowhere. He just turned 26 and has 2 more years on his deal cheap. If we trade assets for anybody it needs to be him.
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Pham is a pass for this reason. Guy's a dick.
 
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