Economics Thread

I was also thinking about another thing thats hurting pricing is the large scale retail theft.

Retailers having to put things under glass impact prices downstream. Having to recoup double or triple the "overrun" than normal likely increases pricing as well. We have seen retailers move or close accordingly all increasing short term costs to reduce long term.

California not preventing or responding to less than 900 dollars worth of theft is likely killing retailers and the frequency they incur such a loss.

Insurance companies are begging to get out of California but they can't so they keep raising prices as much as legally allowed. All of this has a downstream affect on pricing.
 
Tbh, I did actually briefly entertain the possibility that this year was Trump v2.0's version of 2018 and the next year would be cruise control mode for US markets like 2019 was, but I think that's firmly off the table now. Unless volume coming back over the next couple weeks leads to a good push over 629 immediately for QQQ, the 2018 option of a blowoff top into February is off the table too.

We got close to getting to 7k, but I think high 5000's to low 6k's before the SPX pushes over 7k is quite likely now.

All I'm going to say this time is that I don't think banks, oil, and industrials are going to be pushing the SPX to another strong year with the Nasdaq spinning its wheels/in a downtrend!
 

"Goldilocks setup" - Conveniently right before the midterm season starts!

Add in an acceleration of productivity spikes and we are truly entering a golden age.

I'll be here all year to hear some crow being eaten. My expectation though is lots of avoidance of the reality.

"No Plan"

Geiger capital is saying that the growth is directly caused by lowering of the trade deficit.
 
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