A nightmare for those that had real wage increases? Maybe for federal workers and illegals.
There are losers in any economic period.
But it’s clear you guys still don’t see it. You will
Economics Thread
- Thread starter sturg33
- Start date
There are losers in any economic period.
But it’s clear you guys still don’t see it. You will
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I think if you were willing to attach some numbers we would be able to fairly evaluate your claims. Give us a measure of productivity growth you like. Tell us what it has been the past 5-10 years. Tell us what you think it will be going forward. Rinse and repeat with real wage growth, investment, etc.
It would make for a more productive discussion.
Now why should I be held to that standard when the opposite isn’t expected of you and those that think we are headed towards economic turmoil?
Unless of course we are going to pretend most around here weren’t predicting doom in early 2025.
sturg33
I
Because youre the one making insane predictions and doing victory laps before those predictions come true
So if youre willing to put numbers down, I can assess and predict. And if youre right, you can do a victory lap. But right now you do victory laps based on things like Trump saying $18T investments from foreign countries
So yes... put some real markers down. What are the metrics that matter, and what will occurr thanks to these policies? I wont be on vacation when the results come in
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The reason is that he's not interested in a good faith discussion. But hey maybe he will pleasantly surprise me.
Those are obvious things and I’ve said both of those since early 2025. Not rocket science here. I’ve also said repeatedly trade deficit to be lower and real wage growth to increase. So I’ve made many declarations and most of them have come true.
I also said imports from China would reduce significantly.
The metrics I’ve stated (trade deficit : inflation / no material rise in consumer costs )
All these things have come true but you pretend I never said theee things.
sturg33
I
I have the metrics but now I need the numbers. 2, 3, 10, 20%?
I’ve also said my long term vision is a North American manufacturing powerhouse which is coming through the donroe doctrine.
I’ve said I wanted to see our neighbors do less business with China (that has happened).
But again - let’s pretend that many of you weren’t predicting calamity during lithe liberation day times. You’ll just pretend that you weren’t.
I’ve said I wanted to see our neighbors do less business with China (that has happened).
But again - let’s pretend that many of you weren’t predicting calamity during lithe liberation day times. You’ll just pretend that you weren’t.
Percentages are just nonsense since in a comped economy many factors play into it. It’s the directionality and trendlines that are key becuse this isn’t a 1 year plan or a 5 year plan. This is a long term vision to reshape the economy.
In your previous post you said you wanted metrics that matter and then proceed to try to get percentages so let’s not act like you actually care either. Your mind was made up that these policies would result in emptier shelves and less options for Americans which effectively did not happen
You guys mocked the trade deficit going up in early 25 and then pretend when it’s the lowest in a while it means nothing.
You’ll pretend you didn’t expect increases to consumers in excess of 10-20% for goods.
I know what you guys will do and it’s just the opposite of me. But what we are seeing now is the trend line of an economy pointed straight up.
Markets are accepting 80 year high tariff rates and still skyrocketing. And this isn’t just tech. It’s across many industries.
You’ll pretend you didn’t expect increases to consumers in excess of 10-20% for goods.
I know what you guys will do and it’s just the opposite of me. But what we are seeing now is the trend line of an economy pointed straight up.
Markets are accepting 80 year high tariff rates and still skyrocketing. And this isn’t just tech. It’s across many industries.
sturg33
I
No.
Metrics that matter = wage growth
Golden age wage growth = 5% (made up number)
You have promised a golden age. How do we measure that? Wage growth? Great. What is golden age vs just normal ho hum?
Yea and there is a start of a golden age which is the beginning of the trundling up. We are already seeing real wage growth in excess of 2% I believe. With inflation coming down and productivity rising id expect that number to be in the 4-5% with the next 2-3 years.
sturg33
I
Yeah so all im asking you for are benchmarks to measure the success. You've made it quite clear the golden age is coming, maybe already here. Im asking you what that means in terms of numbers and that allows us to actually reflect and measure whether is happened or not
It is the start of the golden age - Is that too difficult to infer from my commentary when I said Q1 26. Do you think you start in the middle of a period?
But you're going to sit here and pretend you didn't expect Trump to destroy the economy and make things incredibly more expensive?
sturg33
I
And I think that is fair bc you are posting here that certain metrics are proof that that tariffs are working, which is fine... just would like to be able to actually measure is all. You have very clear ideas on what success is so tell me what that is and let us compare historically
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
good...i appreciate that
what is measure of real wage growth that you would like to use
sturg33
I
All im asking for are metrics to measure. Tell me what "start of golden age" looks like. We can compare
From my point of view, Trump raising taxes by $200+B has made his economic progress worse
Tariffs are working because prices are not materially incrasing to consumers and we are still collecting tariffs.
They are working because we are importing less chinese crap.
They are working because we have used a stick to get other countries to buy more of our goods.
They are working because our neighbors are doing less buisness with China
Bottom line - Tariffs have been extremely effective.