06/13 GDT Vs The Mutts - Soroka vs Not Soroka

thewupk said:
FiveThirtyEight now has the Braves at 88 wins with a 54% chance to make the playoffs. Curently would be on the outside looking in with the DBacks at 90 wins claiming the last wild card spot.
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That's only 3 games above .500 the rest of the way. I think we might do better than that.

Also: Why can't we play the Mets more?
 
thewupk said:
FiveThirtyEight now has the Braves at 88 wins with a 54% chance to make the playoffs. Curently would be on the outside looking in with the DBacks at 90 wins claiming the last wild card spot.
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How does that work when both the Braves and DBacks lead their respective divisions?
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Probably because they think the gNats win more than 88 games.
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They currently have the Braves and Dodgers tied in predicted finish (88-74), but give the Braves a 54% chance of making the playoffs, versus a 56% for Los Angeles. That would be a tie for the second WC, with Milwaukee earning the first outright, and Arizona, Chicago, DC winning their respective divisions.

I can’t remember how the WC tie-breakers work at this point. Would that result in a play-in for the play-in?
 
CyYoung31 said:
I thought the odds were based on pace and results up to this point.
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They correctly assume the Braves are not as good as their current record indicates.

Simply applying the current winning percentage for the rest of season wouldn't be much a projection system...
 
CyYoung31 said:
How does that work when both the Braves and DBacks lead their respective divisions?
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Initial projections are factored in. So while the Braves current pace has them at like 90+ wins their projected winning % the rest of the way in this is based on what they have done so far plus what they were initially projected to do. However the longer the Braves play at a good level their rest of the way winning % will go up. Just as the Nats will go down as they continue to play below what they were expected to do.
 
jpx7 said:
They currently have the Braves and Dodgers tied in predicted finish (88-74), but give the Braves a 54% chance of making the playoffs, versus a 56% for Los Angeles. That would be a tie for the second WC, with Milwaukee earning the first outright, and Arizona, Chicago, DC winning their respective divisions.

I can’t remember how the WC tie-breakers work at this point. Would that result in a play-in for the play-in?
Click to expand...

Somehow I missed that and thought it had the Dodgers taking the division. But yeah at 88 wins both would be tied for the 2nd wild card. There would be a play in game in this scenario for the 2nd wild card. I assume the difference in % is based on the fact that the Dodgers currently lead in the head to head series and I guess that gives them home field advantage for that game.
 
Enscheff said:
They correctly assume the Braves are not as good as their current record indicates.

Simply applying the current winning percentage for the rest of season wouldn't be much a projection system...
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I didn’t realize he was referring to a projection. I thought he was just talking about odds of making the playoffs at this point.
 
thewupk said:
Somehow I missed that and thought it had the Dodgers taking the division. But yeah at 88 wins both would be tied for the 2nd wild card. There would be a play in game in this scenario for the 2nd wild card. I assume the difference in % is based on the fact that the Dodgers currently lead in the head to head series and I guess that gives them home field advantage for that game.
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If there is a play in game, you have to factor in "infield Fly Rule" , manager not putting in closer in the 8th innning. But for the latter, I don't who our closer will be so, it might be Winkler/Gohara/Hippo or Viz?


I like our chances.......if at home.
 
Attendance for yesterday's Wednesday matinee was 32,105, which actually outdrew a Sunday matchup vs the Mets in the 31rd home game last season.

Combined with a solid 29,000+ on Tuesday, that has allowed the Braves to remain 4% up over last season's gate.

I am now thinking the Braves might end doing better than 5% if they can stay in the race. The weekday gates are up a good bit, I think.

--- Yes Braves are up significantly on weekdays, still lagging slightly behind last season's weekends.
 
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Southcack77 said:
Attendance for yesterday's Wednesday matinee was 32,105, which actually outdrew a Sunday matchup vs the Mets in the 31rd home game last season.

Combined with a solid 29,000+ on Tuesday, that has allowed the Braves to remain 4% up over last season's gate.

I am now thinking the Braves might end doing better than 5% if they can stay in the race. The weekday gates are a good bit, I think.
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our comparable with last should get stronger over the rest of the season...nothing beats winning
 
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