10/08/18 GDT NLDS GAME 4: Dodgers @ Braves The Final Final Game of 2018
- Thread starter CyYoung31
- Start date
ixiXSolidXixi
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Who we go for game 5? Smoltz,Glavine or Maddux?? Very difficult decision!!
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
1 more and we got ourselves a winning streak!
Expecting a big game from Snitkers
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I am so ecstatic about this game. A win completely changed the feel of this postseason
salmagundy
Boras' Client
After game winning HR in game 3, Freddie is off the snide and has a gigantic game 4.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Also, Acuna is amazing. This kid is UNREAL. He's going to be really good for a long time. Atlanta is blessed... for once.
he's the truth
striker42
Well-known member
Rich Hill looks to be the starter for the Dodgers today. I'm not confident in our ability to hit him.
Games 1 and 2 saw us take on lefties that don't throw terribly hard but have excellent breaking stuff and are super crafty.
Game 3 saw us take on a young flame thrower.
I don't think it's any coincidence that the crafty lefties with good breaking stuff dominated us while we managed to tag the flame thrower. We're a fastball hitting club and struggle mightily against guys with good curves.
Hill dominated us in his one start against us this year, 8 K, 1 BB, 3 H, and 0 R in 7 IP.
Games 1 and 2 saw us take on lefties that don't throw terribly hard but have excellent breaking stuff and are super crafty.
Game 3 saw us take on a young flame thrower.
I don't think it's any coincidence that the crafty lefties with good breaking stuff dominated us while we managed to tag the flame thrower. We're a fastball hitting club and struggle mightily against guys with good curves.
Hill dominated us in his one start against us this year, 8 K, 1 BB, 3 H, and 0 R in 7 IP.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Okay, let's break this down a bit.
Hill has been very good against the Braves in a very small sample size (2 starts) since the beginning of 2017. He's pitched 13.1 innings, given up only 2 earned runs, 3 BB, and struck out 16 Braves. We did not hit any homeruns off of him in either of these starts. We batted .180/.241/.220 against him with a terrible .211 wOBA.
Other stats of note against us: 1.35 ERA, 1.66 FIP, 2.82 xFIP
10.8 K/9
2 BB/9
29.6% K%
5.6% BB%
BABIP of .265 suggests maybe a little bit of luck, but let's face it... the sample size is just really small.
Only two of our regulars have more than one career hit off of Hill - Camargo sees him well and has gone 3/6 with 2 doubles and Markakis has gone 2/7
The only other player with an extra base hit off of him is? well obviously its Ryan Flaherty who is 1/2 with a triple...
Freeman is 1/6, Acuna is 0/3 with 2 K's, Albies is 0/3 with 2 K's, Inciarte is 0-7
Some highlights from the traditional Rich Hll splits (2016-2018):
-Neutral home/away splits
-Rarely gets past the 6th inning, but if he does, he's been pretty good in those innings.
-Sometimes struggles a bit in the first inning (.312 wOBA)... dominates inning 2 and innings 3-5 are all roughly the same, sometimes good, sometimes struggles (wOBA ~.295)
-He's better at night than in the day (.270 wOBA against at night, .289 wOBA in the day)
-He's actually equally effective the 3rd time through the batting order (.258 wOBA against) as the 1st (.262 wOBA)
-But maybe we can exploit his struggles at times during the second time through the order (.298 wOBA against)
-Has had reverse splits (.308 wOBA/4.91 xFIP vs. lefties and .265 wOBA/3.31 xFIP vs. righties)
-Seems to struggle the most situationaly with 1 out and runners on (.330 wOBA) and 1 out with runners in scoring position (.334 wOBA)
-We have to be selective and work the count with this guy... as you would expect, he's most effective when he gets ahead 0-1 or 0-2... but he gets lit up when he falls behind and struggles when the count is full
-Need to find a balance of aggressiveness and patience... he struggles when you make him work, getting him behind, but he also struggles when players attack him on the first pitch (.321/.333/.528 when the count is 0-0 in 2018)
Post season last year, he made 4 starts - was 0-0, 2.55 ERA in 17.2 innings... 24 K's 8 BB's (4.08 BB/9 and 12.23 K/9). He did give up 3 homeruns with a 4.01 FIP... was probably just a tiny bit better in the 2016 post season, but he's shown to have some control issues in the post season.
Not many holes to his game, he's just not very durable. Its not going to be easy today but there are a few strategy opportunities and maybe his daytime splits are something real. Will look at Folty next post (I don't do this much so be kind)
Hill has been very good against the Braves in a very small sample size (2 starts) since the beginning of 2017. He's pitched 13.1 innings, given up only 2 earned runs, 3 BB, and struck out 16 Braves. We did not hit any homeruns off of him in either of these starts. We batted .180/.241/.220 against him with a terrible .211 wOBA.
Other stats of note against us: 1.35 ERA, 1.66 FIP, 2.82 xFIP
10.8 K/9
2 BB/9
29.6% K%
5.6% BB%
BABIP of .265 suggests maybe a little bit of luck, but let's face it... the sample size is just really small.
Only two of our regulars have more than one career hit off of Hill - Camargo sees him well and has gone 3/6 with 2 doubles and Markakis has gone 2/7
The only other player with an extra base hit off of him is? well obviously its Ryan Flaherty who is 1/2 with a triple...
Freeman is 1/6, Acuna is 0/3 with 2 K's, Albies is 0/3 with 2 K's, Inciarte is 0-7
Some highlights from the traditional Rich Hll splits (2016-2018):
-Neutral home/away splits
-Rarely gets past the 6th inning, but if he does, he's been pretty good in those innings.
-Sometimes struggles a bit in the first inning (.312 wOBA)... dominates inning 2 and innings 3-5 are all roughly the same, sometimes good, sometimes struggles (wOBA ~.295)
-He's better at night than in the day (.270 wOBA against at night, .289 wOBA in the day)
-He's actually equally effective the 3rd time through the batting order (.258 wOBA against) as the 1st (.262 wOBA)
-But maybe we can exploit his struggles at times during the second time through the order (.298 wOBA against)
-Has had reverse splits (.308 wOBA/4.91 xFIP vs. lefties and .265 wOBA/3.31 xFIP vs. righties)
-Seems to struggle the most situationaly with 1 out and runners on (.330 wOBA) and 1 out with runners in scoring position (.334 wOBA)
-We have to be selective and work the count with this guy... as you would expect, he's most effective when he gets ahead 0-1 or 0-2... but he gets lit up when he falls behind and struggles when the count is full
-Need to find a balance of aggressiveness and patience... he struggles when you make him work, getting him behind, but he also struggles when players attack him on the first pitch (.321/.333/.528 when the count is 0-0 in 2018)
Post season last year, he made 4 starts - was 0-0, 2.55 ERA in 17.2 innings... 24 K's 8 BB's (4.08 BB/9 and 12.23 K/9). He did give up 3 homeruns with a 4.01 FIP... was probably just a tiny bit better in the 2016 post season, but he's shown to have some control issues in the post season.
Not many holes to his game, he's just not very durable. Its not going to be easy today but there are a few strategy opportunities and maybe his daytime splits are something real. Will look at Folty next post (I don't do this much so be kind)
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IslandBrave
Mashin' to Mississippi
We had 2 hits against Buehler. Not sure that’s “tagging him”. One guy tagged him for sure though.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Walks can be “tagging”, too.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Two hits may not be, but five runs sure as hell is.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
The reason we got to the dodgers starter last night was because we worked the count and allowed him to walk our guys until we got the right guys up....we did not work the counts against Ryu or Kershaw....
if we can hang in there and work the counts, I think we will have a chance to force a game 5....
Inciarte needs to stop swinging at first pitch
if we can hang in there and work the counts, I think we will have a chance to force a game 5....
Inciarte needs to stop swinging at first pitch
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Okay, don't have enough time to really dig into Folty's matchup, but some quick (and some obvious) highlights...
-Folty tends to struggle with 2 outs... especially if there are any runners on - he needs to complete the innings!
-Like, you'd expect - he's dominant when ahead in the count and struggles when behind. Does well on 2-2 counts.
-He has to be aggressive and attack Machado, Grandal, Taylor, and Dozier (if he faces him at all)... all 4 of those guys have hit him really hard with the usual small sample size caveat. I'm hopeful most of that damage was simply from his first playoff start and can be explained away by nerves.
-Unlike Hill, Folty shows better splits during the day rather than the night... (.238 wOBA vs .265)
-Like you'd expect, he's pretty dominate the first and second times through the order but struggles the third
Looks like the biggest differences looking at the pitch value data is that he's correctly started throwing the sinker less and increased the slider usage which has become an absolutely filthy elite strikeout pitch and also increased his Fourseam which has been very good and much better than last year. The most interesting thing is that he's really worked on his change-up and while he still doesn't throw it much, when he does, it has been very effective in 2018 as hitters have hit a .363 wOBA against it for his career, as opposed to a .244 wOBA this year. It's really turned into his second best strikeout pitch behind the slider.
I look for him to come out determined and we see him take the next step to becoming one of the truly dominant NL pitchers year in and year out while in his prime.
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
I was led to believe that there wouldn’t be a game 4. I was shocked when I woke this morning and saw that the Braves won because so many here said they were going to lose.
Anyway. Good work from the Braves. Freddie Freeman delivered a clutch blast and that was the difference. Bullpen did it’s job and kept the Dodgers at bay after they tied it up. Wonder which pitcher shows up this afternoon? Folty who appears to dominate at times or Faulty who just throws the ball and does not pitch and has no mental toughness. Obviously early on we should be able to tell what guy showed up to the park.
Anyway. Good work from the Braves. Freddie Freeman delivered a clutch blast and that was the difference. Bullpen did it’s job and kept the Dodgers at bay after they tied it up. Wonder which pitcher shows up this afternoon? Folty who appears to dominate at times or Faulty who just throws the ball and does not pitch and has no mental toughness. Obviously early on we should be able to tell what guy showed up to the park.