119th Congress or Red Wave In Adult Land

nsacpi said:
The BBB does cut spending by a lot. Y'all keep insisting on this intellectually dishonest benchmark of nominal dollars. Any serious analysis looks at spending in the context of the size of the economy. In other words, adjusted for inflation, population growth and real per capita growth.

Spending (especially on Medicaid) is being cut. Substantially.
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Very similar to the arguments that the debt crisis can be solved by cutting spending exclusively.

Its not grounded in any sense of reality.

We are going to end up seeing enhanced growth/productivity. We aren't seeing material cost increases despite impressive amount of tariff inflows. Real wage growth going up that will be thrown right back into the economy. Full time jobs are expanding.

We are on the only course possible to solve the mess we are in from the bioweapon.
 
If a school district sees a 50% increase in enrollment and they increase spending by 10% believe me they are cutting spending. A lot. And if prices are going up they are cutting spending even more.
 
This was nothing short of a masterful performance by Trump/Johnson.

The amount of "I was wrong" that will end up happening from people like Paul and Massie by next year will be incredible to watch.
 
nsacpi said:
If a school district sees a 50% increase in enrollment and they increase spending by 10% believe me they are cutting spending. A lot. And if prices are going up they are cutting spending even more.
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Just wait till the real growth from this bill goes to 3-4%.

All the quotes on deficit increases from the CBO scoring will look laughable.
 
nsacpi said:
The BBB does cut spending by a lot. Y'all keep insisting on this intellectually dishonest benchmark of nominal dollars. Any serious analysis looks at spending in the context of the size of the economy. In other words, adjusted for inflation, population growth and real per capita growth.

Spending (especially on Medicaid) is being cut. Substantially.
Click to expand...
Any serious analysis of this bill (outside of the one done by the White House that assumed 6% annual GDP growth) has the BBB increasing Debt to GDP substantially.
 
nsacpi said:
If a school district sees a 50% increase in enrollment and they increase spending by 10% believe me they are cutting spending. A lot. And if prices are going up they are cutting spending even more.
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| Year | Total Federal Spending (2024 Dollars, Trillions) | Population (Millions) | Spending Per Capita (2024 Dollars) |
|------|-----------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------------------|
| 2005 | 3.22 | 295.5 | 10,897 |
| 2006 | 3.35 | 298.4 | 11,228 |
| 2007 | 3.41 | 301.2 | 11,322 |
| 2008 | 3.67 | 304.1 | 12,068 |
| 2009 | 4.37 | 306.8 | 14,243 |
| 2010 | 4.28 | 309.3 | 13,835 |
| 2011 | 4.22 | 311.6 | 13,543 |
| 2012 | 4.10 | 313.9 | 13,063 |
| 2013 | 3.99 | 316.1 | 12,623 |
| 2014 | 3.98 | 318.4 | 12,500 |
| 2015 | 4.05 | 320.7 | 12,627 |
| 2016 | 4.12 | 323.1 | 12,754 |
| 2017 | 4.17 | 325.1 | 12,828 |
| 2018 | 4.27 | 327.2 | 13,045 |
| 2019 | 4.45 | 329.1 | 13,523 |
| 2020 | 6.55 | 331.0 | 19,789 |
| 2021 | 6.82 | 332.0 | 20,542 |
| 2022 | 6.19 | 333.3 | 18,571 |
| 2023 | 6.27 | 334.9 | 18,719 |
| 2024 | 6.75 | 336.7 | 19,900 |

### Notes
- **Spending**: Adjusted to 2024 dollars using CPI or PCE deflators.
- **Sources**: U.S. Treasury, USAFacts, U.S. Census Bureau.
 
chop2chip said:
Any serious analysis of this bill (outside of the one done by the White House that assumed 6% annual GDP growth) has the BBB increasing Debt to GDP substantially.
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That's also true. Because of the provisions affecting tax revenues. It was always too much to expect the Republicans to do something on the revenue side. Hopefully the Dems will do that when they have control. It seems self-evident that the fiscal problem will have to be fixed with contributions from both the revenues and spending side.
 
chop2chip said:
| Year | Total Federal Spending (2024 Dollars, Trillions) | Population (Millions) | Spending Per Capita (2024 Dollars) |
|------|-----------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------------------|
| 2005 | 3.22 | 295.5 | 10,897 |
| 2006 | 3.35 | 298.4 | 11,228 |
| 2007 | 3.41 | 301.2 | 11,322 |
| 2008 | 3.67 | 304.1 | 12,068 |
| 2009 | 4.37 | 306.8 | 14,243 |
| 2010 | 4.28 | 309.3 | 13,835 |
| 2011 | 4.22 | 311.6 | 13,543 |
| 2012 | 4.10 | 313.9 | 13,063 |
| 2013 | 3.99 | 316.1 | 12,623 |
| 2014 | 3.98 | 318.4 | 12,500 |
| 2015 | 4.05 | 320.7 | 12,627 |
| 2016 | 4.12 | 323.1 | 12,754 |
| 2017 | 4.17 | 325.1 | 12,828 |
| 2018 | 4.27 | 327.2 | 13,045 |
| 2019 | 4.45 | 329.1 | 13,523 |
| 2020 | 6.55 | 331.0 | 19,789 |
| 2021 | 6.82 | 332.0 | 20,542 |
| 2022 | 6.19 | 333.3 | 18,571 |
| 2023 | 6.27 | 334.9 | 18,719 |
| 2024 | 6.75 | 336.7 | 19,900 |

### Notes
- **Spending**: Adjusted to 2024 dollars using CPI or PCE deflators.
- **Sources**: U.S. Treasury, USAFacts, U.S. Census Bureau.
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Here’s the complete table you requested, showing U.S. federal spending per capita projections from 2025 to 2034, adjusted to 2024 dollars, under the CBO baseline, OBBBA (As Written), and OBBBA (Permanent Extension) scenarios. You can copy this table directly.

| Year | Population (Millions) | CBO Baseline Spending (2024 $, Trillions) | Baseline Per Capita (2024 $) | OBBBA (As Written) Spending (2024 $, Trillions) | OBBBA (As Written) Per Capita (2024 $) | OBBBA (Permanent) Spending (2024 $, Trillions) | OBBBA (Permanent) Per Capita (2024 $) |
|------|-----------------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|
| 2025 | 338.4 | 6.71 | 19,829 | 6.67 | 19,711 | 6.73 | 19,887 |
| 2026 | 340.1 | 6.92 | 20,347 | 6.85 | 20,141 | 6.94 | 20,405 |
| 2027 | 341.8 | 7.14 | 20,883 | 7.03 | 20,568 | 7.17 | 20,976 |
| 2028 | 343.5 | 7.37 | 21,452 | 7.24 | 21,077 | 7.40 | 21,542 |
| 2029 | 345.2 | 7.61 | 22,039 | 7.46 | 21,614 | 7.64 | 22,134 |
| 2030 | 346.9 | 7.86 | 22,658 | 7.71 | 22,220 | 7.90 | 22,772 |
| 2031 | 348.6 | 8.12 | 23,293 | 7.97 | 22,864 | 8.16 | 23,416 |
| 2032 | 350.3 | 8.39 | 23,948 | 8.24 | 23,524 | 8.44 | 24,092 |
| 2033 | 352.0 | 8.67 | 24,630 | 8.52 | 24,205 | 8.73 | 24,801 |
| 2034 | 353.7 | 8.97 | 25,349 | 8.82 | 24,936 | 9.04 | 25,554 |

### Notes
- **Spending**: Adjusted to 2024 dollars using a 2% annual CPI deflator.
- **Sources**: CBO, U.S. Census Bureau, Tax Foundation, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
 
chop2chip said:
| Year | Total Federal Spending (2024 Dollars, Trillions) | Population (Millions) | Spending Per Capita (2024 Dollars) |
|------|-----------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------------------|
| 2005 | 3.22 | 295.5 | 10,897 |
| 2006 | 3.35 | 298.4 | 11,228 |
| 2007 | 3.41 | 301.2 | 11,322 |
| 2008 | 3.67 | 304.1 | 12,068 |
| 2009 | 4.37 | 306.8 | 14,243 |
| 2010 | 4.28 | 309.3 | 13,835 |
| 2011 | 4.22 | 311.6 | 13,543 |
| 2012 | 4.10 | 313.9 | 13,063 |
| 2013 | 3.99 | 316.1 | 12,623 |
| 2014 | 3.98 | 318.4 | 12,500 |
| 2015 | 4.05 | 320.7 | 12,627 |
| 2016 | 4.12 | 323.1 | 12,754 |
| 2017 | 4.17 | 325.1 | 12,828 |
| 2018 | 4.27 | 327.2 | 13,045 |
| 2019 | 4.45 | 329.1 | 13,523 |
| 2020 | 6.55 | 331.0 | 19,789 |
| 2021 | 6.82 | 332.0 | 20,542 |
| 2022 | 6.19 | 333.3 | 18,571 |
| 2023 | 6.27 | 334.9 | 18,719 |
| 2024 | 6.75 | 336.7 | 19,900 |

### Notes
- **Spending**: Adjusted to 2024 dollars using CPI or PCE deflators.
- **Sources**: U.S. Treasury, USAFacts, U.S. Census Bureau.
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That adjusts for population growth.. What about real GDP growth. Or the fact that we have an older population. I'll stick with my little example of the school district with a bigger enrollment.

There are relatively painless ways to square the circle. The most obvious one is more immigration.

Maybe AI will come to the rescue. But I think more immigration is by far the best solution.

The reality is tax increases will have to be part of the solution. We can't wish away the fact we have a growing population of old people.
 
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nsacpi said:
That adjusts for population growth.. What about real GDP growth. Or the fact that we have an older population. I'll stick with my little example of the school district with a bigger enrollment.
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You’re welcome to reference spending to GDP over that same horizon if you think that will tell a different narrative. I’ll wait patiently

You can even cheat like I did and use your favorite chat bot
 
chop2chip said:
You’re welcome to reference spending to GDP over that same horizon if you think that will tell a different narrative. I’ll wait patiently

You can even cheat like I did and use your favorite chat bot
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The last point I added to my previous post about the aging population is really the crux of the matter. I think we should try to encourage to people to work longer. I plan to keep going into my 70s because I like what I do. Others might respond if they had more incentive to do so.

Demographics can be a bitch. Increased immigration can greatly alleviate the problem.
 
The reality is it has to be both. Even though I don't like the details of the BBB I give credit to the Republicans for actually cutting spending.

One other thing this whole exercise has reinforced is how shambolic our way of providing access medical care is compared to other countries.
 
zitothebrave said:
Honestly anyone who wants to do this should be tried as a traitor. Trump isn't Jesus, he's not a king. He's a scumbag who lies really well and benefits those in his circle.
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I don’t even really give a damn if they want to, but Ogles is also the guy who proposed changing the law to allow Trump a third term and is constantly finding ways to praise Dear Leader. It’s just sad and embarrassing.
 
thethe said:
This was nothing short of a masterful performance by Trump/Johnson.

The amount of "I was wrong" that will end up happening from people like Paul and Massie by next year will be incredible to watch.
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Are you actually here to debate things or just show up randomly to claim everyone who disagrees with you will one day be eating crow.

You've missed a lot of balls and strikes over the last month...
 
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