1b in Atlanta

msstate7

msstate7

Well-known member
FF...

165 PA .341/.461/.748, 14 hr, BABIP = .356*

Adams...

110 PA .303/.364/.636, 8 hr, BABIP = .314*

*Neither BABIP is out of line.

We have got some great production out of 1b.

Do you think we can parlay the ex-cards (Adams and Garcia) into a decent prospect to say, the Yankees?
 
percival said:
Can we teach Adams to play 3B???
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By all accounts Adams is a terrible defensive player anywhere. I say just stick him in LF and see if this hitting is for real or just small sample noise. Ship out Nick at the deadline or move him into a part time role when Freddie comes back. Our OF defense will be trash but having Kemp/Adams/Freeman in the lineup together sounds real enticing.
 
msstate7 said:
FF...

165 PA .341/.461/.748, 14 hr, BABIP = .356*

Adams...

110 PA .303/.364/.636, 8 hr, BABIP = .314*

*Neither BABIP is out of line.

We have got some great production out of 1b.

Do you think we can parlay the ex-cards (Adams and Garcia) into a decent prospect to say, the Yankees?
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Our Negi braves will come in and say that only idiots would dramatically increase the value of Adams based on 100 plate appearances.

Let's be honest, the deadline leads to overpays and Adams isn't going to net us a top 50 prospect. Adams appears to be ok at 1B. He is hitting pretty dang well. Lost a bunch of weight and this is the first extended playing time. Even hitting Lefties ok.

He's a potential impact bat for a cheap cost this year and next. He's only a 1B or DH. There are some teams that need a 1B. I think we might be able to get a B prospect at the deadline or over the winter.

I did see an article out of St Louis where Adams said he thinks he can play OF and he just didn't get enough practice/time out there. Obviously playing Adams and Kemp would a disaster squared on defense.
 
msstate7 said:
FF...
165 PA .341/.461/.748, 14 hr, BABIP = .356*

Adams...
110 PA .303/.364/.636, 8 hr, BABIP = .314*

*Neither BABIP is out of line.

We have got some great production out of 1b.

Do you think we can parlay the ex-cards (Adams and Garcia) into a decent prospect to say, the Yankees?
Click to expand...

I know this is going to make the pozzy-Barves throw a tantrum, but both guys are benefiting from insanely high HR/FB rates.

Freeman: 33.3%
Adams: 26.5%

MLB average hovers around 10%-11% season to season. The absolute elite power guys like Sano and Stanton hover around the 23%-25% range.

Freeman typically runs excellent HR/FB rates of 14%-15%, and Adams can also be expected to have a good rate of ~13%. But both players are running rates about 2x of what should be considered sustainable for them (though we could argue up to ~20% being legit for Freeman, which is Trout territory).

Cutting Adams' HR/FB rate in half gives him 5 HRs as a Brave (we will round up). When that HR/FB rate normalizes, he will be exactly the same sub-800 OPS guy he has always been. Other FOs in the game see this, and won't be fooled into thinking Adams is suddenly a .900+ OPS monster offensive force.

Remember when everyone was pimping how great Suzuki was hitting? Remember when I said he was benefiting from an unsustainable HR/FB rates? Well, those rates normalized, and Suzuki is right back to being what he has always been.

Queue the tantrums, I'm sorry.
 
Enscheff said:
I know this is going to make the pozzy-Barves throw a tantrum, but both guys are benefiting from insanely high HR/FB rates.

Freeman: 33.3%
Adams: 26.5%

MLB average hovers around 10%-11% season to season. The absolute elite power guys like Sano and Stanton hover around the 23%-25% range.

Freeman typically runs excellent HR/FB rates of 14%-15%, and Adams can also be expected to have a good rate of ~13%. But both players are running rates about 2x of what should be considered sustainable for them (though we could argue up to ~20% being legit for Freeman, which is Trout territory).

Cutting Adams' HR/FB rate in half gives him 5 HRs as a Brave (we will round up). When that HR/FB rate normalizes, he will be exactly the same sub-800 OPS guy he has always been. Other FOs in the game see this, and won't be fooled into thinking Adams is suddenly a .900+ OPS monster offensive force.

Remember when everyone was pimping how great Suzuki was hitting? Remember when I said he was benefiting from an unsustainable HR/FB rates? Well, those rates normalized, and Suzuki is right back to being what he has always been.

Queue the tantrums, I'm sorry.
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I hope no one would argue this is sustainable from Adams. I think it's borderline sustainable for Freeman (not quite that level of power, but something not too terribly far off it).

I would definitely shop Adams, set a price you're comfortable with, and if you don't get it keep him to be a bench bat next year.
 
smootness said:
I hope no one would argue this is sustainable from Adams. I think it's borderline sustainable for Freeman (not quite that level of power, but something not too terribly far off it).

I would definitely shop Adams, set a price you're comfortable with, and if you don't get it keep him to be a bench bat next year.
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Freeman's 1.200 OPS is as unsustainable as his 33% HR rate. However, Freeman is a legit .900-1.000 OPS guy. He is one of the elite hitters in the game today.

Adams is not. He is likely about as valuable as he was when the Braves acquired him. Poking a few extra homers over the last few weeks changed nothing.
 
Enscheff said:
I know this is going to make the pozzy-Barves throw a tantrum, but both guys are benefiting from insanely high HR/FB rates.

Freeman: 33.3%
Adams: 26.5%

MLB average hovers around 10%-11% season to season. The absolute elite power guys like Sano and Stanton hover around the 23%-25% range.

Freeman typically runs excellent HR/FB rates of 14%-15%, and Adams can also be expected to have a good rate of ~13%. But both players are running rates about 2x of what should be considered sustainable for them (though we could argue up to ~20% being legit for Freeman, which is Trout territory).

Cutting Adams' HR/FB rate in half gives him 5 HRs as a Brave (we will round up). When that HR/FB rate normalizes, he will be exactly the same sub-800 OPS guy he has always been. Other FOs in the game see this, and won't be fooled into thinking Adams is suddenly a .900+ OPS monster offensive force.

Remember when everyone was pimping how great Suzuki was hitting? Remember when I said he was benefiting from an unsustainable HR/FB rates? Well, those rates normalized, and Suzuki is right back to being what he has always been.

Queue the tantrums, I'm sorry.
Click to expand...

Looks like this rate is edging up the last two years. Average looks more like 14% this season just eyeballing it.

Leader in this stat generally falls between 26-30%.

Freddie would be fourth in this rate if he qualified by PA and that's a significant jump over last season.

What I'm looking at shows Adams at 20% which is up 5% from last season. Maybe I've sorted incorrectly or you've isolated the Braves numbers?

Not sure why anyone would be mad. Most everyone would expect regression from Freeman from what he did before his injury and not sure anyone is arguing for Adams as a monster.
 
smootness said:
I hope no one would argue this is sustainable from Adams. I think it's borderline sustainable for Freeman (not quite that level of power, but something not too terribly far off it).

I would definitely shop Adams, set a price you're comfortable with, and if you don't get it keep him to be a bench bat next year.
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If you are talking HR rates, I'd be more inclined to say that Adams can sustain 20% than Freeman can sustain 30%+.

I have a story that explains a 5% increase for Adams: lost 30 points in weight room; receives regular playing time; new park?; has show that kind of power in the minors at least:

A story that explains a 19% rate in Freeman's breakout season going to 30% the following year? that's a harder one.
 
Southcack77 said:
Looks like this rate is edging up the last two years. Average looks more like 14% this season just eyeballing it.

Leader in this stat generally falls between 26-30%.

Freddie would be fourth in this rate if he qualified by PA and that's a significant jump over last season.

What I'm looking at shows Adams at 20% which is up 5% from last season. Maybe I've sorted incorrectly or you've isolated the Braves numbers?

Not sure why anyone would be mad. Most everyone would expect regression from Freeman from what he did before his injury and not sure anyone is arguing for Adams as a monster.
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We are discussing ADams increasing his value since becoming a Brave, as if the Cardinals didn't realize there might be more suitors at the trade deadline.

We know what Adams value is: Yepez.

Adams already went to the highest bidder. Nobody values him more than the Braves do, which is why they traded for him.

His value has not increased an appreciable amount over the last few weeks. He will not being back a legit return, so keep him to be a potent bat off the bench in 2018.
 
Southcack77 said:
Looks like this rate is edging up the last two years. Average looks more like 14% this season just eyeballing it.

Leader in this stat generally falls between 26-30%.

Freddie would be fourth in this rate if he qualified by PA and that's a significant jump over last season.

What I'm looking at shows Adams at 20% which is up 5% from last season. Maybe I've sorted incorrectly or you've isolated the Braves numbers?

Not sure why anyone would be mad. Most everyone would expect regression from Freeman from what he did before his injury and not sure anyone is arguing for Adams as a monster.
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There have been several people suggesting we try him out in left field. For what reason I don't know. He was so bad out there that the Cards sent him packing for next to nothing. And when he goes back to hitting like Matt Adams instead of a 900 OPS 'monster' he is going to be really really bad out there.
 
Southcack77 said:
Also, I think I missed the posts touting Kurt Suzuki as the next Babe Ruth or any upset it hasn't gone that way.
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It was a barrage of comments trying to "prove" my idea of signing Castro was bad.

Shall I go back and find the posts and prove you wrong yet again? Does being wrong ever get old?
 
thewupk said:
There have been several people suggesting we try him out in left field. For what reason I don't know. He was so bad out there that the Cards sent him packing for next to nothing. And when he goes back to hitting like Matt Adams instead of a 900 OPS 'monster' he is going to be really really bad out there.
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Well, I'm not one of those people because if his defense played there he'd still be in St Louis.

It doesn't make sense to sit Kemp to hit Adams in left because Kemp has been better with the bat and Adams is just as likely to fall off and is probably every bit as bad or worse in the field.

Since he doesn't really play for the Braves anywhere else, makes sense to trade him while his value is higher.

No matter how Enscheff runs his front office, a player putting up the numbers that Adams has put up will with regular playing time and a better body is going increase his value from a place where he wasn't playing or producing power.

Where the intentional breakdown in communication occurs is when someone takes that statement of fact and blows it up into see the posi-braves claiming Adams has huge value and is going to draw a top 100 player in return.

Everyone knows that the players the Braves have to trade aren't on their own getting back huge assets. No surprise there. No correction necessary.
 
Enscheff said:
It was a barrage of comments trying to "prove" my idea of signing Castro was bad.

Shall I go back and find the posts and prove you wrong yet again? Does being wrong ever get old?
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Glad you mentioned that. I saw a tweet from Grant Mcc. today I think that said that Flowers and Suzuki ranked 1st and 3rd respectively in balls out of the strike zone called strikes.
 
Southcack77 said:
Well, I'm not one of those people because if his defense played there he'd still be in St Louis.

It doesn't make sense to sit Kemp to hit Adams in left because Kemp has been better with the bat and Adams is just as likely to fall off and is probably every bit as bad or worse in the field.

Since he doesn't really play for the Braves anywhere else, makes sense to trade him while his value is higher.

No matter how Enscheff runs his front office, a player putting up the numbers that Adams has put up will with regular playing time and a better body is going increase his value from a place where he wasn't playing or producing power.

Where the intentional breakdown in communication occurs is when someone takes that statement of fact and blows it up into see the posi-braves claiming Adams has huge value and is going to draw a top 100 player in return.

Everyone knows that the players the Braves have to trade aren't on their own getting back huge assets. No surprise there. No correction necessary.
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I agree. I would either keep Adams because we are going to need bench help next year or try and package him with Garcia and/or Phillips to try and get a real prospect from a team. IMO Adams is more valuable to the Braves next year than what he can get on the trade market by himself.
 
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