2015 Farm System Rankings (Law 6th/Fangraphs 6th)

emk418 said:
Fried is one of those rare prospects that every single person who talks about him mentions his immense upside. He has legit front line potential. But it obviously was a very risky and debatable move having him be the centerpiece in a trade for Justin Upton.
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Yep. Count me among those that loves the switch we've made from lower ceiling-higher floor to higher ceiling-lower floor/more risk. There's nothing more frustrating than loading up your farm system with decent college players.

I'd much rather get a younger guy with more raw talent, especially pitchers. Our track record there is second to none. If there are no complications from Fried's surgery, I fully expect him to be a top prospect by 2016.
 
smootness said:
Yep. Count me among those that loves the switch we've made from lower ceiling-higher floor to higher ceiling-lower floor/more risk. There's nothing more frustrating than loading up your farm system with decent college players.

I'd much rather get a younger guy with more raw talent, especially pitchers. Our track record there is second to none. If there are no complications from Fried's surgery, I fully expect him to be a top prospect by 2016.
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After invading Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, Philip II of Macedon sent a message to Sparta: "If I invade Laconia you will be destroyed, never to rise again." The Spartan ephors replied with a single word: "If" (αἴκα)
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I like Shelby Miller, and I think one of the reasons we were able to get is because the Cards just have a ton of pitching, as always. I'd rather have him than Carlos Martinez. Miller's floor is pretty high IMO.
 
MadduxFanII said:
After invading Greece and receiving the submission of other key city-states, Philip II of Macedon sent a message to Sparta: "If I invade Laconia you will be destroyed, never to rise again." The Spartan ephors replied with a single word: "If" (αἴκα)
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Yeah, but in this case that 'if' comes with about an 80-85% success rate. So there's a pretty good chance that Fried is a top prospect by 2016.
 
Does it bother anyone that he's averaged more than 4 BB/9 and less than 8 K/9, about a 1.40 WHIP? Or have we all agreed to whistle past the graveyard?
 
That too, Gov. No denying Fried's talent or pedigree, but he has a fairly middling performance record and a traumatic injury on the books already.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Does it bother anyone that he's averaged more than 4 BB/9 and less than 8 K/9, about a 1.40 WHIP? Or have we all agreed to whistle past the graveyard?
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GovClintonTyree said:
Does it bother anyone that he's averaged more than 4 BB/9 and less than 8 K/9, about a 1.40 WHIP? Or have we all agreed to whistle past the graveyard?
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Yes. I understand that the minors are about development and not putting up stats. I understand that TJ surgery is relatively routine these days. I just don't see the top of the rotation upside. I think he is more of a mid rotation starter and that's not worth the risk in my opinion. Hopefully he turns out great and in 10 years we can laugh about how wrong we were like the Marte/Renteria trades.
 
cajunrevenge said:
Yes. I understand that the minors are about development and not putting up stats. I understand that TJ surgery is relatively routine these days. I just don't see the top of the rotation upside. I think he is more of a mid rotation starter and that's not worth the risk in my opinion. Hopefully he turns out great and in 10 years we can laugh about how wrong we were like the Marte/Renteria trades.
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What do you base this on? Have you seen him pitch? Most who have done evaluations say his upside is huge.

Mid-90s fastball, plus curveball, potential for a plus changeup.
 
smootness said:
What do you base this on? Have you seen him pitch? Most who have done evaluations say his upside is huge.

Mid-90s fastball, plus curveball, potential for a plus changeup.
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I like strikes.

Fried doesn't throw enough of them.

If that changes, and it might, I'd like his chances better.
 
Hawk said:
Was that satire? Hopefully, because otherwise, that's some swiss cheese.

I'm a fan of Fried, there's a lot to like there -- just think the Braves could have done better for Upton (who is basically at this point the consensus #1 free agent next offseason). Look what the Cubs got for half of a season of Jeff Samardzija in a pitching heavy market.
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Well, yeah, but Hawk, Billy overpaid. Overpaid big time.
 
cajunrevenge said:
http://gwynntelligence.com/2014/10/29/max-fried-bust/
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Wow. I hope you're not basing your entire opinion on that article. He had one pretty good year as a 19-year-old in A, so it's just time to accept that he'll never put it all together? Yiiiiiikes.

The guy took a very small sample (4 years) of the absolute best pitchers in baseball, focused his argument on a few numbers, then even had to admit that he wasn't any worse than Jon Lester in his only real year in the minors? Not a great way to start.

Taking a look overall at the numbers shows you that while he didn't dominate on the level of the top few, he certainly performed comparably with a lot of them. And these are the best pitchers in the game.

I like the analytical, but some people (read: this guy) go waaaaaay too far in taking a few things and making themselves into baseball geniuses.
 
smootness said:
Uh....what the heck?

Everyone would rather have gotten their top 2 prospects. The Braves also would have preferred that. The Padres weren't going to give us either one, let alone both.

It's been noted pretty much everywhere that the only reason we were even able to get someone of Fried's caliber is because he was injured. So we definitely weren't getting someone better and healthy. If Fried returns to his prior ability (pretty good chance of that), then he's a very good prospect, a top-50 guy.
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Just curious, who are you? I remember there being a Fred Smoot fan over at Scout...
 
Hawk said:
Was that satire? Hopefully, because otherwise, that's some swiss cheese.

I'm a fan of Fried, there's a lot to like there -- just think the Braves could have done better for Upton (who is basically at this point the consensus #1 free agent next offseason). Look what the Cubs got for half of a season of Jeff Samardzija in a pitching heavy market.
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To be fair, that wasn't just Samardzija that was sent to the A's. And while he isn't there anymore, Samardzija had 1.5 years remaining at the time of the trade.

Similarly, the return the A's got for Samardija from Chi-Sox is pretty unimpressive.
 
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