It all just depends on the return. If someone is willing to give you a return for Teheran that would match his peak value, you do it.
2015 WINTER MEETINGS THREAD
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
It all just depends on the return. If someone is willing to give you a return for Teheran that would match his peak value, you do it.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Some advice to Coppy: You can intend to tank and do it. You can intend NOT to tank and still do it. At least if you intend to tank and are successful people will know that you know what you re doing.
chop2chip
Well-known member
I don't quite understand the logic of a position's market having an effect on their value. More FA starting pitchers just means more starting pitcher empty voids. The only way market value really changes on the aggregate is if the number of quality pitchers league wide increases.
In other words, I don't think we should base our time frame of trading Shelby based on the number of FA alternatives. If we wait a year from now that just means we have one less year of value to trade.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
true, but as long as they are still available then teams think they can sign one.. your take on it is correct when less pitchers are out there for teams to 'Think' they can sign.
It's true that we're more likely to get a better return for Teheran or Miller once most of the top FAs have signed. But again, it just depends. There may be a team that would rather not shell out $20-30 million for a top FA and sees Teheran or Miller as a great option even before any FAs have signed that is willing to give us a great return for them.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
also match ups play a part. If a team has talent that is blocked and that the Braves desire, then it would be wise for that team to trade for a ML pitcher as to bidding for a top FA and being stuck in a long contract that will probably lose value as it matures...
One could argue that this is EXACTLY the time to trade both Julio and Shelby. Yes, there are lots of options "available" to fill rotation slots, but very few offer the talent and upside they do with at least 3 years of control for less than $5 million in 2016.
Would a team that thinks it's got a shot at playing at least .500 ball and potentially making the playoffs rather have Mike Leake for 5 years and $75 million or one of those two and money to spend upgrading elsewhere?
sturg33
I
I suspect that you would have the exact same opinion if there wasn't a glut of free agent pitching available. Basically, you will fit whatever situation into your preferred narrative.
Why would a team trade real assets (which it appears the Braves are finally asking for) for a pitcher when they could go sign one and keep those assets? The only team who would is a money strapped team... And the Cubs, Sox, and Dodgers are not those.
Of course Miller's ideal trade time would be in an offseason where there wasn't 10+ good pitchers available.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The variable that reduces the value of Teheran and Miller is the incredible influx of pitching talent the last few years. You have the group the Mets have. Some not so young guys who have really blossomed, including Arrieta, Keuchel, Kluber, Ross and Carrasco. Other young stars like Archer, Severino, Gray, Ventura, Martinez.
I think it exceeds by some margin the influx of young hitting talent in the last two or three years.
I think it exceeds by some margin the influx of young hitting talent in the last two or three years.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
This is hardly an original thought -- but if Cueto signs in the first 24 hours of so of the Winter Meetings, the Braves might actually get the Brinks Job trade they're hoping for with Miller. The first day of the meetings should be absolutely nuts. I'd almost give one of mine to be there.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
Iwakuma to the Dodgers is first move to go down.
striker42
Well-known member
I think the Diamondbacks matchup best with us right now. They're in an arms race with the rest of the NL West and could really, really use Miller. I don't see them trading Pollack. That would be stupid of them. However, I could easily see them building a deal around David Peralta.
Peralta's a guy I like a lot. He should be cheap and under team control for a while and would step in and be probably our second best hitter immediately. While Arizona is a hitters paradise, Peralta hit well on the road last year too (.836 OPS and 9 of his 17 HRs away). He hit 53 XBH in just 517 PA. That's pretty good. He also can play all three outfield spots but is better suited for one of the corners.
On the downside, he was probably pretty lucky last year. His BAPIP was .368 which is likely unsustainable. I think it'll probably settle around .330 with a BA around .290. Still quite good. His defense isn't very good so he's probably best suited for left where his bat isn't quite as special. He also isn't great against lefties (.686 OPS).
Overall I think his power is legit. There's no reason he shouldn't hit 15-20 HRs a year with a bunch of doubles and triples. He wont be a huge strikeout guy and while he's not going to walk a ton, he'll walk enough. For the next few years I see him being a guy who hits .290, gets on base at a .340-.350 clip, and slugs about .500. That would be a HUGE lift to our lineup. Think about this:
Mallex/Bourn- CF
Markakis- RF
Freeman- 1B
Peralta- LF
Zobrist- 2B (if we manage to sign him)
Olivera- 3B
AJ- C
Aybar- SS
That's not a terrible lineup for next season.
I don't think Peralta is enough alone. I'd want an arm coming back at least but I think Peralta could be a nice addition.
Peralta's a guy I like a lot. He should be cheap and under team control for a while and would step in and be probably our second best hitter immediately. While Arizona is a hitters paradise, Peralta hit well on the road last year too (.836 OPS and 9 of his 17 HRs away). He hit 53 XBH in just 517 PA. That's pretty good. He also can play all three outfield spots but is better suited for one of the corners.
On the downside, he was probably pretty lucky last year. His BAPIP was .368 which is likely unsustainable. I think it'll probably settle around .330 with a BA around .290. Still quite good. His defense isn't very good so he's probably best suited for left where his bat isn't quite as special. He also isn't great against lefties (.686 OPS).
Overall I think his power is legit. There's no reason he shouldn't hit 15-20 HRs a year with a bunch of doubles and triples. He wont be a huge strikeout guy and while he's not going to walk a ton, he'll walk enough. For the next few years I see him being a guy who hits .290, gets on base at a .340-.350 clip, and slugs about .500. That would be a HUGE lift to our lineup. Think about this:
Mallex/Bourn- CF
Markakis- RF
Freeman- 1B
Peralta- LF
Zobrist- 2B (if we manage to sign him)
Olivera- 3B
AJ- C
Aybar- SS
That's not a terrible lineup for next season.
I don't think Peralta is enough alone. I'd want an arm coming back at least but I think Peralta could be a nice addition.
Tapate50
Well-known member
I would call the Nats about Papelbon. I know that sounds crazy as hell.
We want to sure up the back end of the BP. Check
We can pay him. Check
He has filed a grievance against the Nats about his pay over the last 4 games. I don't see him returning there in any scenario. Which brings me to...they pretty much have to move him.
His list of suitors will be EXTREMELY short, especially with that contract. I say call up Washington and offer to take him at a reduced salary, and have them throw in a nice prospect. Like... a nice one.
That guy would love nothing more than to fire fastballs at Bryce Harper for the next few years. Plus, I'd just like to see how much Mich Ultra he and AjP could pound post game after dusting Harper off. That would be one heck of a battery team.
We want to sure up the back end of the BP. Check
We can pay him. Check
He has filed a grievance against the Nats about his pay over the last 4 games. I don't see him returning there in any scenario. Which brings me to...they pretty much have to move him.
His list of suitors will be EXTREMELY short, especially with that contract. I say call up Washington and offer to take him at a reduced salary, and have them throw in a nice prospect. Like... a nice one.
That guy would love nothing more than to fire fastballs at Bryce Harper for the next few years. Plus, I'd just like to see how much Mich Ultra he and AjP could pound post game after dusting Harper off. That would be one heck of a battery team.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Rays are engaged in trade talks with the Cubs that currently center around infielder Javier Baez.
Topkin suggests that the Cubs would want a late-inning reliever like Jake McGee or Brad Boxberger, and a starter like Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, Jake Odorizzi, or Erasmo Ramirez in return. Baez has incredible bat speed and gaudy minor league numbers, but he is currently without a starting position in Chicago with Addison Russell at shortstop and Starlin Castro at second base. There's been some talk of trying Baez in center field if he is not moved this winter.
Topkin suggests that the Cubs would want a late-inning reliever like Jake McGee or Brad Boxberger, and a starter like Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, Jake Odorizzi, or Erasmo Ramirez in return. Baez has incredible bat speed and gaudy minor league numbers, but he is currently without a starting position in Chicago with Addison Russell at shortstop and Starlin Castro at second base. There's been some talk of trying Baez in center field if he is not moved this winter.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Teheran could plunk him in the first inning and Papelbon could bookend that in the ninth.
Hahaha. This has to be frustrating for the Dodgers. Although, Urias plus another good prospect would not be an overpay for him. But Urias and Seager? Good one.
Also from MLBTR: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports asked one rival exec what he thought the Dodgers would need to part with in order to acquire Fernandez, and the exec said Urias, Seager and Scott Van Slyke — an even more sizable haul.
That's just dumb. Why shop him then? Nobody is going to give you that.